341
FXUS62 KMLB 142324
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
724 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will diminish late this
  evening. Another round of a few storms is forecast on Wednesday.
  The strongest storms will carry a risk for wind gusts of 40-50
  mph.

- Hot and humid temperatures will lead to afternoon heat indices
  between 102-107F each day. Make sure to practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight... Latest radar and satellite imagery depict
a west-east oriented cluster of showers and storms currently
moving across northern Lake and Volusia counties. This activity
will continue to track E/SE this afternoon with expanding areal
coverage of convection southward across the area in response to
sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for ECFL
through this evening carrying a primary risk of damaging wind
gusts, as noted in the most recent MCD highlighting a localized
wet microburst potential with stronger convection. A few areas of
localized flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas also
remain possible with heavier and quickly accumulating rainfall
locations. Convection expected to push offshore late evening into
tonight with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions settling in
overnight.

(from previous discussion)... Wednesday-Thursday...Low level W/SW
flow continues with ridge axis over the West Atlantic near to
south of the area. Model guidance does show even drier air from
the SAL moving into the area, with the GFS showing PW values on
Wednesday dropping to as low as 1.5-1.6 inches. However, models
have struggled with the amount of dry air and even NBM has been
increasing PoPs slightly for this period as we get closer in time.
However, for now the forecast for lower convective coverage
continues, with PoPs ranging from 20-40% each afternoon/evening.
The low level offshore flow and sea breeze collision will continue
to generate at least isolated to scattered showers and storms
across the area, with a few stronger storms still possible.

The decrease in convective coverage will only allow temps to
increase, with more widespread mid 90s for max temps across the
area. Drier air aloft should mix down leading to a decrease in
afternoon dewpoints (as low as upper 60s/low 70s across the
interior), but with the hot temps will still lead to peak heat
index values 100-107F.

Friday-Monday...Mid level ridge extending from the Atlantic and
across the southeast U.S. will gradually break down as trough digs
southward across the eastern United States through the weekend
into early next week. This will keep surface ridge axis near to
south of the area. Moisture gradually rises through the period,
with afternoon/evening shower and storm chances increasing and
returning to more normal values (PoPs around 30-40% Friday and
then 40-50% for much of the area Saturday-Monday). No relief from
the July heat is in sight, with max temps forecast to continue to
range from the low to mid 90s. The added humidity may even push
peak afternoon heat index values a little closer to Heat Advisory
thresholds (108-110F) in some spots. However, most for most areas
values still look to mostly range from 102-107F.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

(modified previous discussion)... Boating conditions will remain
generally favorable through the rest of the week and into early
this weekend, outside of offshore moving thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours. High pressure ridge axis over the
west Atlantic will remain near to south of the waters, maintaining
generally west-southwest winds during the overnight and morning
hours, switching to the south-southeast into the afternoon/evening
as the east coast sea breeze forms. Wind speeds are forecast to
remain mostly below 15 knots, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered to numerous offshore moving storms remain possible this
afternoon and evening, and will be capable of producing strong to
locally severe wind gusts up to 35-50 knots and frequent
lightning. Coverage of storms then decrease into mid to late week,
becoming isolated to scattered, but a few strong offshore moving
storms will still be possible during the afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

We continue to track a band of showers and storms with gusty winds
affecting MLB, with potential impacts shifting toward VRB/FPR over
the next hour if they continue to form to the south. Peak gusts to
35 KT have occurred. Quieter conds are forecast late tonight and
thru Wed AM. By the afternoon, there remains significant
uncertainty in the guidance regarding TS redevelopment. For now,
we think a few storms should form with motions E/SE toward the
coast in the afternoon/early evening. At MCO, storm development
should be beyond 17Z. Outside of storms, light/vrb winds turning
WNW up to 10 KT on Wednesday, except easterly up to 10 KT at the
coastal terminals MLB southward in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  75  92 /  20  30  10  20
MCO  75  95  77  95 /  30  20  20  20
MLB  76  92  77  92 /  60  20  10  30
VRB  74  93  75  93 /  60  20  10  20
LEE  76  94  77  94 /  20  20  20  10
SFB  75  95  77  95 /  30  20  30  20
ORL  76  94  77  94 /  30  20  20  20
FPR  74  93  74  93 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TBW
AVIATION...Heil