187
FXUS62 KMLB 161102
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
702 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Fairly persistent weather pattern across east central Florida,
  with the greatest rain chances focused near and north of the I-4
  corridor each afternoon and early evening along the sea breeze
  collision.

- Heat stress concerns continue due to widespread Moderate
  HeatRisk. The potential for Major HeatRisk exists around the
  Greater Orlando area through much of this week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Today-Tonight...The weather is forecast to follow a very similar
pattern to the last several days. The surface ridge axis remains
draped across central Florida, with a mid-level ridge situated
directly overhead. The moisture profile across the area is
anticipated to change slightly, with drier air filtering in south of
a line from Kissimmee to Melbourne. As a result, there is only a 20
percent chance for rain and storms across the Treasure Coast and
around Lake Okeechobee, and even this may be too high based on some
of the shorter-range CAM guidance. Northward, greater moisture is
forecast to remain in place, focused primarily near and north of the
I-4 corridor. As the east coast sea breeze moves inland this
afternoon, some isolated activity along the boundary cannot be ruled
out, though confidence in this remains low. The sea breeze collision
late this afternoon and into the evening hours will create the best
chances for shower and storm development, with PoPs reaching 40 to
50 percent. The environment continues to remain fairly similar to
the last few days, with storms likely remaining sub-severe if they
develop. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and
heavy downpours will be possible. Rainfall accumulations may reach 1
to 3 inches in some spots, especially where showers and storms are
slow-moving as a result of weak steering flow. This could lead to
minor localized flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.
Activity will gradually diminish into the overnight hours, with the
potential for some lingering showers through midnight. Dry
conditions overnight after activity diminishes.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast to persist across east central
Florida thanks to the persistent ridge, with highs climbing into the
upper 80s to mid 90s. Peak heat indices reach 100 to 105, with a
Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast across east central Florida. Be
sure to stay well hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or
an air conditioned building if spending extended periods of time
outdoors. Those sensitive to the heat and visitors not accustomed to
the Florida heat should take extra precautions. Lows overnight in
the low to mid 70s.

A moderate risk of rip currents will also be present at all local
east central Florida beaches today. If heading to the beach, be sure
to always swim near a lifeguard, never enter the ocean alone, and
heed the advice of beach safety officials and posted flags.

Tuesday-Sunday...The synoptic pattern is anticipated to remain
fairly consistent through about Thursday, with mid-level ridging
remaining over the Florida peninsula and the surface ridge axis
staying relatively stationary while being draped across central and
north Florida. Drier air remains in place across southern portions
of the forecast area, with a pocket of moisture remaining mostly in
place near and north of the I-4 corridor. A 40 to 50 percent chance
for showers and storms is forecast across the northern portions of
the area, remaining 20 to 40 percent southward. By Friday, the mid-
level ridge breaks down across the area, with increasing moisture
forecast locally in response. Towards the weekend, a deeper ridge
builds across the central and eastern US, drifting eastward towards
Florida. Another pocket of drier air may move towards the area into
the weekend, though there remains some uncertainty relative to this.
Maintain a 30 to 50 percent chance for rain and storms Friday
through Sunday.

Heat will continue to be a concern for east central Florida, with
highs reaching the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Peak heat indices
100 to 105 will continue, with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk
anticipated, especially near the Greater Orlando region. Lows remain
fairly consistent in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The surface high currently over the local Atlantic waters will
remain in place over the next several days, leading to generally
favorable boating conditions. Southerly 5 to 10 knot winds become
southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots each afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze develops, becoming lighter once again during the overnight
hours. Seas remain generally 2 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered
shower and storm activity will continue to be possible (20 to 40
percent chance), but more often than not, conditions across the
local Atlantic waters will remain mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

No significant changes with this TAF package, with VFR conditions
still mostly forecast today into tonight. Tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions will occur with any showers and storms, but coverage
will also be overall lower than normal today along the inland
moving sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
develop, mainly inland and toward the coast near to north of the
Cape, with KMLB-KSUA likely remaining dry. Greatest chance for
showers and storms will be with the sea breeze collision late
this afternoon into this evening, near to NW of I-4. However,
still some uncertainty on exactly where this will setup and if
terminals will be impacted. For now, leaving VCTS in the TAFs from
18Z-00Z at KDAB, from 20-01Z at KSFB/KMCO/KISM and 22-02Z at
KLEE.

Southerly winds will increase to 5-8 knots, becoming E/SE behind
the inland moving east coast sea breeze and increasing to 10-15
knots with gusts to 18-22 knots along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  92  74 /  50  30  30  10
MCO  94  75  95  75 /  40  30  40  20
MLB  89  75  90  76 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  91  74  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  92  75  94  76 /  50  40  40  20
SFB  93  75  94  75 /  50  30  40  10
ORL  93  76  94  76 /  50  30  40  20
FPR  89  72  90  73 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Weitlich