752
FXUS62 KMLB 312347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
747 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida
  this week as onshore flow and high moisture supports above
  normal rain and storm chances, including during the overnights
  and early mornings.

- Primary storm hazards will be gusty winds 40 to 50 mph,
  occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally
  heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue to produce heat indices in the
  triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks
  in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time
  outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Thru Tue...A strong mid level high pressure ridge over the mid MS
Valley this afternoon will shift east across the TN Valley Tue.
Weak mid level troughs on its southern flank across the northern
Gulf and FL will keep our weather more unsettled. The low level
ridge axis will remain north of the area and continue an onshore
flow with abundant moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.2"). This will maintain
the general pattern of isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the
overnights and early mornings, some of which push across the
coast. Then a higher coverage of additional showers and storms
develop just inland from the coast along and ahead of a
quick/diffuse east coast sea breeze in the late mornings to early
afternoons, pushing inland. This will also keep our chances for
afternoon storms above normal at 50-70% esp over the interior.
Afternoon and early evening rain chances will be much lower along
the coast due to subsidence behind the sea breeze. However, broad
instability due to the high moisture and disturbances aloft could
kick off additional rounds of showers and storms at any point.

Weak steering flow will produce slow moving storms and allow for
some erratic cell motions especially along boundary collisions.
Such storms could deliver a quick 2-3" of rainfall leading to
temporary flooding of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage areas.
There is a very low (less than 5%) chance for one or two spots to
receive 4+" of rainfall, leading to greater flooding impacts.
Stronger storms and heavy showers will be capable of gusty winds
40-50 mph from water loading. Occasional to frequent cloud to
ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms.

Temperatures remain seasonably hot with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. But given the high humidity, peak afternoon heat
indices will remain 100-106.

Wed-Thu...The center of the upper ridge reaches the Carolinas as
the low level ridge axis begins to inch southward. This is
forecast to produce a deep southerly flow over our area with even
higher PWATS of 2.4-2.5". Rain chances have increased to 80% over
the interior and have collaborated with WPC about adding MRGL
excessive rain outlook for Wed (Level 1 of 4). The National
Hurricane Center has reduced its probabilities to near 0% for
redevelopment of the remnants of "Dolly". Nonetheless, its
moisture is forecast to reach us Thu, keeping rain chances high
and a MRGL ERO already in place.

Instability may be more muted in the very saturated atmosphere,
warm mid-level temperatures and possibly considerable cloudiness
(esp Wed), but gusty winds from water loading will remain
possible. Storms will be capable of occasional to frequent cloud
to ground lightning. Max temps should be similar in the upper 80s
and lower 90s.

Fri-Sun...Some drier air may temporarily rotate into portions of
the area and help to lower rain chances slightly. But at the
surface the Bermuda high retreats farther out to to sea, causing
the local pressure gradient to become very weak. So will continue
to show at or above normal rain chances (50-70%). Max temperatures
would tick upward into the mid 90s interior if clouds/precip back
off a bit. Regardless, peak afternoon heat indices remain in the
triple digits.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Generally favorable winds and seas for boating, but isolated to
scattered lightning storms will remain a hazard, including during
the overnights. The ridge axis of the Bermuda will generally
remain north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, continuing
onshore (E-SE) flow 5-10 kts, closer to 10 kts in the afternoons
from sea breeze enhancement. Low pressure systems passing well
north of the area may weaken the western periphery of the high at
times, especially late in the week, resulting in lighter and more
variable winds. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore in the Gulf
Stream midweek. Onshore flow and high moisture will continue to
support a daily pattern of isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the
overnights to early mornings, then pushing onshore or developing
just inland from the coast and pushing inland with the sea breeze
in the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Showers and storms have diminished across much of the area, with
just some lingering light rain near KLEE and isolated onshore
moving showers along the Treasure Coast. Models have been hinting
at stratus developing across the interior late tonight through
early Tuesday morning. For now have put predominant MVFR cigs in
for inland TAF sites from 9-14Z, but some of the MOS guidance has
been showing patchy IFR cigs during this time.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms may continue to
push onshore along the coast overnight through early Tuesday
morning. However, greatest rain chances will exist into the late
morning and afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and
shifts inland. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will again
develop with an earlier start, producing tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions through late afternoon. This activity should again
diminish and shift west of the area into the evening. Have VCTS at
the coast starting at 16Z and then inland at 17-18Z.

Light and variable winds forecast overnight, picking back up out
of the E/NE around 7-10 knots into tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  88  76  88 /  20  50  30  80
MCO  75  91  75  92 /  20  70  30  80
MLB  77  89  77  90 /  30  60  20  70
VRB  75  89  75  89 /  40  60  40  70
LEE  75  89  75  89 /  10  70  20  80
SFB  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  20  80
ORL  76  90  76  91 /  10  70  30  80
FPR  75  89  75  89 /  30  70  40  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Weitlich