583
FXUS62 KMLB 301123
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
723 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- High coverage of showers and storms into the weekend; A Marginal
  Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists through at least Friday,
  with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall forecast.

- A few strong storms will be possible, mainly in the afternoons,
  with wind gusts near 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally
  heavy rainfall.

- Warm and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the lower 90s
  and heat indices up to 102-106 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Today-Tonight...A surface front stalls across north Florida today,
as a low pressure system moves off of the Northeast US coast.
Aloft, an upper level trough digs southward into Florida, before
moving offshore overnight. Locally, this looks to begin a wet
pattern over the next several days. Breezy southwesterly flow,
with gusts near 20 mph, will prevent the development of the sea
breeze today. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.5") and upper level
support will lead to high coverage of showers and storms area-
wide today and into tonight. PoPs through this afternoon range
from 40-70%, highest for areas near and north of Melbourne.
Unfortunately, CAMs have really struggled to nail down convective
evolution today, with a bit to be desired from run to run
consistency on where the heaviest rainfall could occur. The
driver for convection will be outflow boundaries and perturbations
in the upper level flow, unlike our more typical sea breeze
patterns. Thus, hourly PoPs are quite general overall. Showers and
storms will remain possible overnight north of the Treasure
Coast, with PoPs 30-50%.

Any storms today into tonight will be capable of a quick 1-3",
with isolated higher totals possible in any training bands. Given
recent trends, areas along and north of I-4 look to have the
highest chance for locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low.
All but southern portions of the Treasure Coast are under a
Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall today. The greatest
potential for a few strong storms will be across southern portions
of the area, where lingering drier air in the mid-levels could
support a few wind gusts to near 50 mph. High cloud and
precipitation coverage will moderate highs into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. However, maximum heat indices will linger near 102-106
degrees.

Friday-Sunday...Our wet pattern continues into the weekend, as the
front remains stalled through Saturday, before beginning to lift
northward on Sunday. Aloft, the upper level trough moves offshore
through the period, though mid-level shortwaves will continue to
traverse the area. High coverage of showers and storms each day
(up to 60-80%), as southwesterly flow persists. However, will see
the pressure gradient slacken into this weekend, allowing for the
sea breeze to develop but remain pinned near the coast and focus
convection. Deep moisture will continue to support potential quick
rainfall totals of 1-3+", with multiple waves of showers and
storms each day. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall over several days could see increasing minor flooding
concerns. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall continues through
at least Friday, though Saturday could be the wettest day of the
period, with deep PWATs and the pinned east coast sea breeze.

Despite the presence of deep moisture, some drier air in the mid-
levels will continue to support a few strong wind gusts up to
50-55 mph, particularly Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will remain possible each night during the
overnight hours, especially north of I-4, closest to the stalled
front. High temperatures linger in the lower 90s, with peak heat
indices 102-107, regardless of the high coverage of showers and
storms.

Monday-Thursday...The Atlantic ridge axis drifts northward through
the period, as high pressure develops aloft over the eastern Gulf.
Light, generally southerly/southeasterly flow will prevail,
allowing for a more normal sea breeze pattern to develop. This
pattern, combined with a bit of drier air aloft from the Saharan
Air Layer will lead to nearer to normal PoPs (40-60%) across the
area. Lower coverage of showers and storms, with clearer skies,
will allow highs temperatures to creep towards the mid-90s over
the interior, with lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain warm
and muggy in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Today-Tonight...A tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge axis to the south and a stalled boundary across north
Florida will support poor boating conditions, mainly offshore,
through today. SW winds 10-15 kts across the nearshore waters and
15-20 kts offshore today improve to 10-15 kts tonight. Small
craft should exercise caution over the offshore waters through
this afternoon. A wet pattern begins today, increasing the amount
of offshore-moving activity. A few strong storms, with gusts to
near 45 kts, will be possible, be sure to keep an eye to the
western sky for approaching storms. Seas 2-4 ft.

Friday-Tuesday...High coverage of showers and storms persists
through the weekend, with activity moving eastward and offshore,
especially in the afternoons. However, showers and storms will
remain possible in the overnight hours. Despite this, boating
conditions improve as SW flow slackens to 15 kts or less through
Saturday. Then, the Atlantic ridge axis moves northward into early
next week, backing winds S/SE. Shower and storm coverage returns
to near normal by Monday. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

An approaching disturbance is already beginning to spark some
showers and storms, especially near Tampa. With some morning
heating, we expect upscale growth of coverage of this activity,
peaking late morning into the afternoon. With high coverage
anticipated, ongoing VC/TEMPOs for most airfields incl MCO look on
track. Will need to monitor trends for timing and adjust as
necessary. Brief IFR/LIFR restrictions and gusts approaching 35 KT
will be the primary aviation hazards with today`s storms. Activity
should decrease beyond 22Z, though we cannot rule out some
redevelopment after sunset esp near LEE to MCO. Expect mostly VFR
outside of convection with continued W/SW flow up to 12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  91  74 /  60  50  70  60
MCO  91  77  92  75 /  70  40  70  40
MLB  90  76  91  75 /  70  20  70  40
VRB  90  74  91  73 /  60  10  60  40
LEE  90  77  91  76 /  70  50  70  60
SFB  91  77  92  76 /  70  50  70  50
ORL  91  77  92  76 /  70  50  70  40
FPR  90  74  91  73 /  60  10  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Heil