138
FXUS62 KMLB 060714
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Hot and dry conditions today and Thursday, with highs in the
  low to mid 90s nearing daily records.

- Rain chances begin to rise Friday into the weekend as a front
  nears and stalls just north of the area, with highs remaining
  above normal in the low 90s for much of the area.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the interior
  today, and then an increasing fire danger is forecast into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Today-Thursday...Temperatures will be more summer-like, with dry
conditions prevailing as mid-level ridge across the Gulf expands
across the Florida peninsula. A continued onshore flow today will
allow the east coast sea breeze to move inland by early afternoon
keeping max temps in the mid to upper 80s along the immediate
coast. However, across the interior highs will reach the low to
mid 90s, with Sanford and Leesburg having the potential to tie or
break their record values for today (see climate section below).
Ridge axis of surface high pressure across the West Atlantic will
slide south of the area tomorrow, with low level winds increasing
out of the W/SW. This will delay or prevent development of the
east coast sea breeze allowing highs to reach the low to mid 90s
area-wide Thursday. Leesburg, Sanford, Daytona Beach and Vero
Beach are currently all forecast to either tie or break their
record highs for tomorrow, with Orlando, Melbourne, and Fort
Pierce all within 1-2 degrees of their record values.

Residents and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions
for these well above normal temperatures. Remember, NEVER leave
children or pets in cars for any period of time. The increasing
heat, as well as dry and breezy conditions Thursday will also lead
to an increased fire weather danger tomorrow.

Friday-Sunday...A weak cold front slides southward into North
Florida and stalls Friday morning. This boundary will linger just
north of the area through Saturday before it begins to lifts farther
northward into Sunday. This front will lead to an increase in
moisture that will bring a return of isolated to scattered showers
and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours as sea
breeze boundaries push inland and collide. PoPs around 20-40% are
limited to areas north of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast on
Friday and then expand across the entire region Saturday and Sunday.
Lingering drier air aloft will lead to the potential for isolated
stronger storms each day, with the main threats including frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and locally heavy
rainfall.

With front remaining to the north and mid-level ridge center moving
slowly eastward across the Caribbean, temperatures will remain
hotter than normal. Highs will still reach the low 90s for much of
the area, and may still see some mid 90s across the southern
interior. Either way, the added humidity from the increase in
moisture will lead to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s both
Friday and Saturday and these may increase to the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees on Sunday. Potential heat impacts, particularly
for heat-sensitive individuals, will therefore persist through
the weekend.

Monday-Tuesday...Large scale trough aloft will push through the
eastern U.S. into early next week, which will shift a weak cold
front through the area into early next week. This will increase
shower and storm chances into Monday (up to 40-50%), with rain
chances then decreasing into Tuesday. Highs are forecast to
remain above normal, in the low 90s on Monday, but the frontal
passage is currently forecast to drop temperatures to more normal
values Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions forecast today into
tonight. Ridge axis of high pressure across the west Atlantic shifts
southward across the waters today. Winds remain onshore out of the
E/SE with speeds less than 15 knots, and seas will range from 2-3
feet. Dry conditions will prevail.

Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions are forecast to remain
generally favorable through late week and into the weekend. Ridge
axis shifts south of the waters into late week, as a weak front
moves into the Southeast United States. This front will then stall
out near to just north of the waters Friday morning, lingering
across North Florida through Saturday before lifting a little
farther north Sunday. S/SE winds on Thursday increase to 10-15
knots. Then into Friday winds are forecast to be offshore in the
morning before becoming onshore into the afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. Winds then prevail out of the S/SE through the weekend,
with speeds still around 10-15 knots. Wave heights will remain
around 2-3 feet. It will remain dry across the waters Thursday, and
then isolated to scattered showers and storms return as front nears
the area, especially into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Models still have some very low (10% or less) chances for fog
development across the interior early this morning, not high
enough to include in TAFs. Same goes for early Thursday morning.
Otherwise dry VFR conditions prevail at ECFL terminals through
the TAF period. Light/VRB SE-E winds this morning increase to 6-11
kts in the afternoon, then become light/VRB again late this
evening. Breezy/gusty SW-S winds Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Increasingly hot and dry conditions forecast today into Thursday,
with fire danger increasing, as highs reach into the low to mid 90s.
Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the interior
today, as Min RH values fall as low as the low to mid 30s. Wind
speeds are generally forecast to remain below 15 mph today as they
initially start out of the south-southeast and become east-southeast
behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze this afternoon.

More dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast into Thursday
afternoon, as winds increase out of the southwest in the
afternoon and Min RH values fall to the upper 20s to mid 30s for
much of the area. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Osceola
and Brevard counties northward through Lake and Volusia counties
where critically low RH and wind speeds around 15 mph are most
likely to coincide. The east coast sea breeze will likely form
south of the Cape, but will be delayed, switching winds to the
southeast Thursday afternoon. This may keep Min RH values above
critical values along the immediate coast where the sea breeze is
able to form.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, May
6th and Thursday, May 7th:

Site           May 6        May 7
Daytona      95 (1955)    93 (1952)
Leesburg     93 (2007)    94 (1984)
Sanford      95 (1952)    94 (2009)
Orlando      98 (1922)    98 (1915)
Melbourne    94 (2022)    91 (1980)
Vero Beach   95 (2022)    93 (1947)
Fort Pierce  95 (2022)    95 (1906)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  93  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  86  72  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  87  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  93  70  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  94  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  93  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  86  70  93  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-
     747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley