016
FXUS62 KMLB 161045
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
645 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Deep moisture lingers through Thursday, supporting high daily
  rain chances (60-80%). Highest coverage is expected across the
  interior.

- A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances
  returning closer to normal by Friday.

- Temperatures warm Friday and into the weekend, with peak heat
  index values reaching 102-107 degrees.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Today... The Atlantic high builds toward central Florida today as
invest 93L moves westward along the northeast Gulf coast. Southeast
winds develop and increase to 10-15 mph as a modest pressure
gradient is established. High moisture lingers in the low to mid
levels while soundings suggest a drier airmass beginning to advect
above 700mb. More sunshine and surface heating combined with
sufficient low level moisture should allow for rounds showers and
storms this afternoon. Southeast winds should generally keep
coverage highest across the interior (60-70%) with drier forecast
trends focused near and east of I-95. While more organized tall
storm growth could be hindered by poor mid level lapse rates and
dry air aloft, steep low level lapse rates should be supportive
for quick updrafts. Isolated strong storms which can overcome poor
mid levels and mix with drier air aloft will be capable of
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-50 mph, and small
hail.

Temperatures return near normal today with highs mostly ranging the
upper 80s to low 90s. Areas which see limited shower and storm
activity could see peak heat index values between 100-105 degrees this
afternoon. Overnight low temperatures (L-M70s) remain mild with
onshore flow.

Thursday... A wave of moisture advects from the Bahamas on Thursday
keeping one more day of above normal rain chances. Southeast winds
hold under the influence of the Atlantic ridge axis. While onshore
moving showers and storms will be possible along the coast in the
late morning and early afternoon hours, steering flow should favor
the greatest coverage across the interior in the afternoon and
evening (70-80%). Overall storm parameters remain similar to what is
forecast today, and isolated stronger storms will be capable of
lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 45-50 mph, and small hail.
High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s with heat index
values increasing between 102-107 degrees.

Friday-Tuesday... Broad mid level ridging builds westward across
central Florida through the weekend. High temperatures gradually
increase into Sunday, spreading the low to mid 90s each day. Ridging
is forecast to break down by Monday allowing temperatures to relax
slightly. While a drier air column is expected, continued onshore
flow should keep surface moisture in place. This will result in peak
heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria this weekend,
particularly on Sunday. Some areas may see relief from the heat in
the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms. Models solutions
diverge Monday and Tuesday with hints of a wetter pattern returning
into next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The Atlantic ridge axis settles across the local waters through late
week. South to southeast winds around 10-15 kts today and tomorrow
slacken some by Friday. Deep moisture will keep high rain chances in
place through Thursday with a more seasonal pattern of showers and
storms returning Friday and into the weekend. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions continue outside of convection. Morning showers
with ISOLD lightning storms along the coast this morning with
TEMPO MVFR. Though Invest 93L continues to pull away (W/NW) from
ECFL, abundant moisture will stream across the area in its wake.
Light SE/S flow continues thru early morning, with southerly flow
dominating during the day. Wind speeds increasing to 8-12 kts
areawide, and a little gustier across coastal TAF sites. A gradual
return on this day to the normal sea breeze regime, though
highest PoPs look to favor the interior and esp WCFL into late
afternoon/evening. PoP potential highest along the coast during
the morning and early afternoon. Too early for TEMPO groups across
the interior, but do have some VCSH/VCTS at various locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  76  90  76 /  60  10  60  10
MCO  92  75  92  76 /  70  20  80  10
MLB  89  78  90  77 /  50  20  60  10
VRB  90  75  90  74 /  50  20  60  10
LEE  90  76  91  76 /  70  30  80  10
SFB  91  76  93  76 /  70  20  70  10
ORL  91  76  93  77 /  70  20  80  10
FPR  90  75  90  74 /  60  20  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock