540
FXUS62 KMLB 291058
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
658 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- High coverage of rain and lightning storms are expected each day
  through early next week. While this rainfall will be beneficial
  to drought conditions, multiple rounds of locally heavy
  rainfall over the same areas could lead to increasing flooding
  concerns.

- Coverage of showers and storms will be highest near the coast,
  as west to northwest flow opposes the east coast sea breeze.

- Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures through early
  next week before temperatures become slightly below normal by
  mid- week next week as a cool front stalls across central
  Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure aloft will stay in place across the
southern US as a series of troughs push into the NE US from Canada
and push offshore. At the surface, elongated ridging stretching
across the Straits of Florida and the northern Carribean will remain
in place, resulting in west to northwest flow prevailing, with winds
around 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form
this afternoon, remaining pinned closer to the coast. This will
result in the sea breeze collision occurring on the eastern side of
the peninsula, along the coast.

Deep tropical moisture remains in place over east central Florida,
with forecast PW values of 2.0-2.2". This will support high coverage
(50-80 percent) of showers and lightning storms today, with the
highest chances of convection occurring in the afternoon before
moving offshore into the evening. Widespread rainfall accumulations
of 1.5-2.5" are expected, with isolated totals of 3+" will be
possible. However, localized flooding concerns may develop in areas
that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Afternoon high
temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat
indices in the upper 90s to low 100. Overnight lows will be
seasonable with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Sunday... Upper level trough across the NE US will push
offshore this weekend as high pressure across the south remains in
place. At the surface, elongated ridging stretching across the
Straits of Florida and the northern Carribean will remain in place
through the weekend, resulting in west to northwest flow prevailing.
Much like today, winds will remain around 10 mph or less. The east
coast sea breeze is forecast to form on Sunday afternoon, once again
remaining pinned along the coast. Deep tropical moisture will remain
in place most days as a couple shortwaves traverse across the area
aloft, although some slight drying is forecast on Saturday. This
will maintain the higher rain and lightning storm chances across the
area, with a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of rain on
Saturday and a high (60-80 percent) chance of rain on Sunday. The
highest chance for convection will occur in the afternoon before
pushing offshore into the evening. Widespread accumulations of 1.5-
2.5" are expected, with isolated totals of of 3+" will be possible
through the weekend. However, localized flooding concerns may
develop in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over
multiple days in a row, especially for urban areas.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast each day, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures coupled with
high humidity will produce heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s. Warm conditions overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday... Another upper level trough will move offshore of
the northeast US into mid week. High pressure remains south of the
local area through early next week as a cool front shifts southward
through the southern US. As the front approaches the Florida
peninsula, it is forecast to slow, stalling at times into mid- week.
Some uncertainty remains due to model disagreements continuing on
where this front will stall and how far south the front will travel.
However, models are becoming in better agreement with the front
making it to central Florida before stalling. Regardless of which
model solution ends up occurring, deep moisture, with forecast PW
values 1.8-2.0"), will remain in place, especially along the
boundary. Thus, high coverage of showers and lightning storms (50-70
percent) are forecast each day, especially in the afternoon. Exact
rainfall amounts and placement will be dependent on where the
boundary is located. However, widespread rainfall amounts of 1+" are
expected. Because of this, locally heavy rainfall will be the main
threat along the front, which may exacerbate any flooding concerns
that develop through the weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable
early in the week, becoming slightly below normal into mid week as
the aforementioned cold front reaches the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Today-Tuesday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
period. High pressure south of the area will linger there into early
next week, maintaining offshore flow around 15 kts or less. The east
coast sea breeze is forecast to form near the coast most days
through through the period, turning the winds onshore. High coverage
of showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop near the
coast each afternoon before pushing offshore through the evening and
overnight hours. Seas 1-3ft through the weekend before building to 3-
5ft on Monday through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Light winds and dry conditions start out the morning across the
terminals, with winds eventually picking up between 5 to 10 knots
after 15Z out of the west-northwest. The ECSB is forecast to
develop and push inland after 18Z, causing winds at the coastal
terminals to become more northeasterly. VCTS chances increase
after 18Z along the coast and 19Z across the interior. TEMPOs
added in at MCO/ISM/SFB/DAB/TIX for VIS and CIG reductions due to
TSRA between 19-22Z. Activity will move offshore into the evening
hours with dry conditions overnight and a return of light westerly
winds after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  88  74 /  70  40  70  30
MCO  89  74  88  74 /  50  30  50  20
MLB  88  76  89  76 /  70  40  60  20
VRB  89  75  90  75 /  60  40  50  20
LEE  90  75  88  75 /  60  30  50  20
SFB  91  74  89  75 /  70  40  60  20
ORL  90  76  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
FPR  88  74  89  74 /  70  40  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen