869
FXUS62 KMLB 311050
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
650 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Warm and humid conditions will continue across east central
  Florida through the middle of this week, with scattered to
  numerous showers and storms possible each afternoon.

- A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central
  Florida beaches today; always swim near a lifeguard!

- The pattern is forecast to shift late this week as a cold front
  moves southward across the peninsula, bringing drier air, lower
  temperatures, and deteriorating boating conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Today-Tonight...Broad high pressure aloft and at the surface
south of the Florida peninsula will support ongoing west to
northwest flow within the boundary layer and aloft. A quasi-
stationary boundary will also remain draped across the
southeastern US. Locally, flow will be weaker than yesterday,
allowing for a slightly better development and progression inland
of the east coast sea breeze, though it is anticipated to remain
pinned near the I-95 corridor. In addition to the persistent west
to northwest flow, precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches
continue, allowing for high coverage of clouds, which may limit
some daytime heating this morning and into the afternoon hours.
This would be a limiting factor for development later in the day.
With the persistent west-northwest flow and the ample moisture, a
sea breeze collision sometime after 2 PM is forecast, leading to
increasing coverage of showers and storms, especially along the
east central Florida coast. Have tampered PoPs down to 40-50%
areawide given the potential for cloud coverage limiting activity,
but still anticipate the highest coverage along the coast late
this afternoon into this evening. Storm development chances are
also highest along the coast, but cannot rule out some isolated
storms across the interior with any development that forms along
the west coast sea breeze as it pushes eastward. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes and
wind gusts to 45 mph, but the main concern with activity
continues to be heavy rainfall that could lead to minor, localized
flooding. Rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible, especially
along the coast, and localized higher amounts exceeding 3" cannot
be ruled out. Showers and storms will move offshore through the
late evening hours, with activity diminishing across the local
Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions are forecast
through the overnight hours across the peninsula.

As mentioned, greater cloud coverage will help limit daytime
heating, but the moist air mass will lead to another muggy day.
Temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with
peak heat indices ranging from the mid 90s to the low 100s in some
spots. If spending extended periods of time outdoors, be sure to
stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or an air conditioned
building. Low temperatures overnight are forecast to fall into the
low to mid 70s, with the cooler locations primarily confined to
the rural portions of east central Florida.

Monday-Tuesday...The broad high will remain south of the Florida
peninsula through the start of this week, but the pattern shifts
slightly as a non-tropical low pressure develops along the
aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary across the Carolinas and
Georgia on Monday and moves offshore Monday night into Tuesday.
Westerly winds pick up slightly on Monday as the pressure gradient
tightens and ease on Tuesday, with winds veering to out of the
north Tuesday night as the low moves offshore. The moist air mass
is anticipated to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday, keeping
conditions favorable for at least scattered shower and storm
development across east central Florida, with the sea breeze
collision continuing to be favored across the eastern portion of
the Florida peninsula. Currently maintain a 40-60% chance of
showers and storms on Monday and a 60-70% chance of showers and
storms on Tuesday. Prevailing westerly flow will favor activity
moving offshore through the overnight hours, with mostly dry
conditions forecast across the peninsula each night.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal
in the upper 80s to low 90s with peak heat indices in the upper
90s to low 100s. Muggy, humid conditions will also persist due to
the moist air mass. Lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday...Another non-tropical low is anticipated to
develop along the boundary to the north, dragging the boundary
southward as a cold front across the Florida peninsula Wednesday
into Thursday as the low pushes offshore across the Atlantic. As a
result, temperatures are anticipated to cool slightly into the
low to mid 80s on Wednesday and Thursday, but this will be short-
lived as high pressure settles across the Florida peninsula and
allows temperatures to warm back into the upper 80s to low 90s by
late week. Rain chances are highest on Wednesday prior to the
passage of the cold front, with drier air filtering in behind the
front and remaining in place through the rest of the week. Exact
placement of the cold front as it weakens and stalls across south
Florida will determine just how far south the drier air settles,
which has consequences on just how high rain chances will remain
across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Anticipate
some shifts in PoPs over the next few days as guidance comes into
better agreement.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

West to northwest flow will persist around 10 to 15 knots across
the local waters through at least Tuesday, keeping boating
conditions generally favorable early this week. Seas are forecast
to remain between 2 to 5 feet, with the highest seas focused
across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible each afternoon through the overnight
hours, with the strongest storms capable of producing cloud-to-
water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and
locally higher seas. Activity will diminish late at night into the
early morning hours.

The pattern shifts on Wednesday as a cold front moves southward
across the local waters, causing winds to shift to out of the
north- northeast at 15 to 25 knots. Poor boating conditions
develop Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with seas building up
to 7 feet, especially across the offshore waters. The northeast
winds will gradually subside Thursday and become more easterly
through late week, maintaining seas of 3 to 6 feet. Drier air
filtering in from the north will help decrease rain chances from
Thursday onward, though isolated development, especially across
the southern waters, cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR continue outside of SHRA/TSRA today. Westerly winds 5-10 kt
today will turn onshore at the coast as the ECSB develops 17-19z.
SHRA/TSRA are forecast to form and move W-E from inland sites
toward the coast after 18z-20z. Greatest coverage and potential
impacts are for TIX to SUA after 20z, and TEMPOs may be needed in
future updates. CIG/VIS reductions and brief wind gusts 30-35 kt
or greater are possible. -SHRA ends by 03-04z Mon., pushing
offshore. Mostly dry into Mon. morning, though a stray -SHRA
cannot be ruled out. West winds pick up 10-14 kt after 13-14z Mon,
followed by more SHRA/TSRA development during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  89  74 /  50  30  60  20
MCO  88  75  89  75 /  50  20  40  10
MLB  88  76  90  77 /  50  30  50  10
VRB  88  75  90  75 /  50  40  40  10
LEE  89  76  89  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  89  75  90  75 /  50  20  50  20
ORL  88  76  89  76 /  50  20  40  20
FPR  88  75  89  75 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Schaper