985
FXUS62 KMLB 051057
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
657 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist into the weekend and early
  next week. The main storm hazard will continue to be the
  potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly
  minor flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices
  in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Current-Sunday...Very muggy conditions exist presently with temps
and dewpoints well into the 70s. Surface high pressure ridging will
slowly slip south into central FL during the day and further
southeast & seaward on Sun. Light SW/W winds will transition onshore
in the afternoon along the coast with ECSB formation and slow push
inland (quicker across the Treasure Coast). A late day/early evening
sea breeze collision both days this weekend will occur across the
eastern peninsula - further toward the east coast than on Fri. Storm
steering is light WRLY which will bring activity back toward the
coast and across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters. Weak
troughing in the mid-levels will exist along the FL east coast today
with some mid-level energy available for aiding convection, though
temps at 500 mb remain fairly warm at -5.5C to -6.5C, slightly
cooler than on Fri. Similar temps aloft on Sun, though the
aforementioned mid-level troughing will be mainly southeast of the
area. PWATs remain near to slightly above 2", esp Cape southward
today and perhaps some drier air pushing across the area on Sun.
Mainly diurnal PoPs 50-70% today and 50-60% for Sun. Primary storm
impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds locally 35-45
mph, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively short
period promoting minor/nuisance flooding in slow-moving storms or
repeated rounds. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall for portions of east central FL thru the
weekend.

Max temps near to slightly above climo near 90F to L90s. Humid
overnight with mins in the 70s. Peak heat indices continue 100-107F
ahead of daily storms.

Mon-Fri...Troughiness in the mid-levels moves slowly away from the
eastern seaboard and further into the western Atlc early in the
period. Mid-level ridging across the Plains will strengthen and
become more expansive toward the Deep South/southeast U.S. Weak east-
west oriented mid-level troughing will slowly slide down the
peninsula becoming fixated across the central FL peninsula into mid-
week. This energy will aid diurnal convection thru the period. Mid-
level temps fairly consistent -5.5C to -6.5C. At the surface, a weak
pressure pattern will remain in place. A weakening front will push
into the Deep South/north FL early next week finally washing out by
around mid-week. The NBM continues to favor higher than normal PoPs
thru mid next week. Storm impacts continue to revolve around locally
heavy rainfall. The ECSB will develop each afternoon, but will
remain limited across the eastern FL peninsula into Mon, but much
depends on the southward progression of the aforementioned weak
frontal boundary to the north. Storm motion still light offshore
thru Tue, then more light/variable into the rest of the extended.
Generally near seasonal temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with lows in the
70s continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Thru Wednesday...Fairly weak pressure gradient in place with daily
sea breeze formation as winds transition to ESE/SE 10-12 kts along
the coast. Inland progression of this feature will be limited thru
maybe Mon. Diurnal offshore-moving showers/storms into early next
week as storm motion remains mostly WRLY. A few strong storms
possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds,
and heavy downpours. Coverage of storms will be fairly high into
early to mid next week, esp in the mid-late afternoon/early evening.
Overnight activity mostly confined to the Gulf Stream, where a few
strong storms will remain possible. Seas locally higher invof
storms. Seas 1-2 ft thru Mon night, building to 2-4 ft again by late
Tue and perhaps 5 ft well offshore (Volusia Coast) Tue night/early
Wed. Boating conditions mostly favorable outside of storms into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Light winds early become southwesterly after 14Z, with wind speeds
ranging between 5 to 10 knots. The ECSB is forecast to develop but
will struggle to move inland, with the best rain and storm chances
forecast across the eastern half of the Florida peninsula. VCTS
chances begin increasing after 17Z, with TEMPOs added in generally
between 18-23Z for reduced VIS and CIG due to TSRA. Activity will
move offshore through the late evening hours, drying out beyond
00Z across the interior and 02Z along the coast. Southwest winds
become light overnight, picking up once again out of the west into
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  92  75 /  60  20  60  50
MCO  93  76  93  76 /  60  10  50  20
MLB  92  75  92  75 /  70  40  50  30
VRB  90  73  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
LEE  91  75  92  75 /  60  10  50  20
SFB  92  76  93  76 /  60  20  60  30
ORL  92  77  92  77 /  60  10  50  20
FPR  90  73  91  74 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen