284
FXUS62 KMLB 272342
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
742 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Dry conditions will persist across east central Florida through
  Monday along with a period of seasonable temperatures.

- A high risk of rip currents is anticipated to continue at all
  east central Florida beaches through at least Monday. Entering
  the surf is not advised!

- Moisture increases across the Florida peninsula from Tuesday
  onward, resulting in a return of rain and storm chances locally.
  A slight uptick in temperatures and a return of humidity is also
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tonight-Monday...A dry air mass remains in place across the
Florida peninsula tonight through Monday. PWATs generally range
between 0.8- 1.2", with some pockets of moisture building slightly
on Monday up to 1.6". Overall, this drier air will continue to
limit rain and storm chances across east central Florida, with no
mentionable chances through Monday. Light and variable winds
persist through tonight and early Monday, becoming slightly more
onshore during the afternoon hours as a weak, diffuse sea breeze
develops and moves inland. Mostly clear skies continue through
tonight and into Monday, with afternoon temperatures staying
seasonable in the mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the
60s.

Long period swells will support a continued high risk of rip
currents at all east central Florida beaches tonight and into
Monday. Entering the ocean is not advised!

Tuesday-Saturday...A mid-level trough drifts southward towards
the Florida peninsula through the middle of the week, eventually
becoming a broad closed low across the eastern Gulf. Mid-level
high pressure across the Atlantic drifts westward towards the
peninsula by Thursday, pushing the low farther into the Gulf
through late week. At the surface, the broad high pressure
situated across the peninsula lifts northward as an area of low
pressure out across the Atlantic far east of the Carolinas lifts
northeastward, slowly dragging a stalled frontal boundary
northward across Florida. By mid to late week, an additional broad
disturbance develops near Cuba, drifting northwestward into the
Gulf. Overall, this set-up will result in gradually increasing
moisture across east central Florida, further aided by persistent
onshore flow advecting moist air from the Atlantic. Isolated to
scattered rain and storm chances return to the Treasure Coast and
areas around Lake Okeechobee on Tuesday, spreading northward and
encompassing the entire forecast area from Wednesday onward. A
majority of the activity is anticipated to follow a diurnal
pattern, with daytime heating supporting the development of a
diffuse sea breeze each afternoon. Intrusion inland and additional
local boundary interactions will further support development,
with showers and storms diminishing into the overnight period.
While it remains too early to pinpoint exact storm threats,
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all look to be
possible at this time. It is important to note that while activity
is anticipated to diminish during the overnight hours, the
persistent onshore flow will support low chances (20-30%) of
isolated onshore- moving showers through the overnight and early
morning hours along the coast. Scattered shower and storm
development will remain possible across the local Atlantic waters
through the overnight hours.

The taste of fall across east central Florida this weekend will
unfortunately be brief, with temperatures forecast to trend a bit
warmer. The warmest temperatures are anticipated across the
interior (upper 80s to low 90s), with the onshore flow keeping
places along the coast a bit closer to normal (mid to upper 80s).
The increasing moisture also will push dewpoints higher, resulting
in a return of peak heat indices into the upper 90s and even near
100 by late week. Overnight temperatures will also trend near to
slightly above normal through the extended.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Light and variable winds tonight into Monday will continue to
allow seas to subside across the local Atlantic waters, falling
from 3 to 5 feet tonight to 2 to 3 feet on Monday. Wind speeds
stay below 15 knots, generally around 10 knots across the local
waters. By Tuesday, winds are anticipated to become easterly and
southeasterly, with wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots persisting
through the week. Local enhancements closer to the coast will be
possible as a result of the east coast sea breeze. Seas of 2 to 3
feet slowly build once again due to the onshore flow, reaching 4
feet primarily across the offshore waters by mid week. Overall,
boating conditions are anticipated to remain generally favorable.

Dry conditions will persist through Monday due to dry air
limiting shower and storm development. By Tuesday, moisture slowly
begins building once again across the Treasure Coast waters,
spreading northward by Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible each day, with continued development possible
into the overnight hours due to the persistent onshore flow.
Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible with
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conds through the TAF period. Light/Variable winds tonight.
On Mon, light W to SW flow early at all terminals, turning E to
E/SE btwn 16Z-18Z at coastal terminals. A S to SE wind flow will
develop at MCO/SFB aft 17Z. Speeds mainly 5-10 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and
is actively cresting due to a previous period of northerly winds
and ongoing tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually
subside through Minor Flood Stage this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  88  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  66  88  70  89 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  69  87  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  68  87  70  88 /   0   0   0  20
LEE  66  88  70  89 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  65  88  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  66  88  70  89 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  68  87  70  88 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly