806
FXUS62 KMLB 131831
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
231 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues; entering
  the ocean is strongly discouraged.

- Boating conditions briefly improve through Tuesday, then
  deteriorate again by Wednesday.

- Mostly dry through the week, except Wednesday and Thursday, when
  a few showers may develop and move onshore; near to slightly
  below normal temperatures are forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Another (finally) pleasant day across
East Central Florida. Aloft the sharp trough comprised of two mid-
level lows over the eastern seaboard "consolidates" into a single
are of low pressure centered just off the Mid-Atlantic, as the
feature begins to depart into the North Atlantic in response to
strengthening of the ridge over the Central US. At the surface
the low pressure(s) system along the Atlantic seaboard associated
with the trough has become very elongated and messy, and at least
for now has shed the stationary front to our south extending from
the Straits of Florida to the Bahamas. A plume of low-level
moisture associated with the nearest low pressure center has swung
through without much fanfare other than allowing light winds to
shift onshore this afternoon, giving way for drier air to continue
filtering in from the north as weak high pressure builds from the
Gulf. We`ll see mostly sunny skies with zero rain chances.
Temperatures a few degrees below normal as afternoon highs top out
in the L-M80s and lows drop down into the L-M60s inland and
M-U60s along the coast.

The continued caveat is poor to hazardous beach conditions, where
a high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues despite
surf appearing to look more inviting, and many parts of the beach
remain unsafe due to coastal flood and erosion impacts. Residents
and visitors are encouraged to avoid impacted areas and to stay
out of the water altogether.

Along the Saint Johns River, Astor is forecast to remain in
moderate flood stage through the week. Farther upstream, points at
DeLand, Sanford, and Geneva remain in action stage, and Cocoa may
reach action stage.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The mid-upper level ridge over the Central US
begins to amplify between deep upper troughs and associated mid-
level lows over the western US and western Atlantic, shifting
gradually east in the process. Surface high pressure over the
North Central US/South Central Canada deepens and shifts east
along the with ridge. Locally we remain mainly under the influence
of weak high pressure over the Gulf and Florida, but will see the
pressure gradient tighten a bit Wednesday between the departing
surface low in the western Atlantic and the approaching surface
high, causing northerly winds to tick up a bit from 5-10 mph
Tuesday to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast
Wednesday. Very dry air with PWATs generally less than 1" Tuesday
will make for very pleasant conditions with clear skies and no
rain chances, but on Wednesday a bit of low-level moisture advects
across Florida, which combined with the slight up tick in winds,
could support some low-topped showers (20% chance) and an
increased cu- field. Temperatures remain a bit below normal with
afternoon highs in the L-M80s, maybe upper 70s along the Volusia
coast Tuesday, and overnight lows in the 60s, getting close to the
L70s along the Treasure Coast early Thursday morning.

The risk for rip currents will continue, worsening again from
Wednesday onward as longer period swells arrive at the coast.

Thursday-Sunday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Winds gain more
of an easterly component on Thursday as another push of low-level
moisture arrives during the day. Additionally, a reinforcing cold
front is set to move through during the day. For now, areas closer
to the coast and south of Cape Canaveral have the best chance to
experience more isolated shower activity. Less cloud cover is
anticipated farther inland, allowing temps to climb closer to the
mid 80s. A shower or two may linger along the southern Treasure
Coast Thursday night/early Friday before drier conditions largely
return Friday into the weekend. Model discrepancies become
apparent after the H5 ridge axis moves overhead Friday into
Saturday, with guidance developing a trough over the central
CONUS. The speed and expanse of this trough becomes a bigger
question from Sunday onward. Uncertainty also exists regarding a
mid level impulse over the Florida Keys on Sunday. Drier air over
central Florida should keep deeper moisture focused over south
Florida, but this is just another feature to monitor through the
week.

All in all, expect a lot of dry time with temperatures ranging
from the low/mid 80s each day to the 60s each night. Life-
threatening rip currents will remain at area beaches through at
least late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Boating conditions have improved in the nearshore Central Florida
Atlantic waters, with seas 3-5 ft, but remain poor in portions of
the Gulf Stream due to lingering 6 ft seas. Seas briefly settle to
3-5 ft across the waters Tuesday with northerly winds 10-15 kts
as we remain under the influence of weak high pressure over the
Gulf extending to the local waters, while a broad low pressure
system off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard finally pushes out to sea.
Reinforcing high pressure builds into the eastern US mid to late
week, preceded by a dry cold front reaching the area late in the
week. Winds could briefly increase to around 20 kts as the
pressure gradient tightens between the reinforcing high and
departing low, particularly on Thursday, but the greatest impact
will be long period swell from the low building seas to 5-9 ft
again Wednesday through late week. Mostly dry conditions, but a
few bands of low- level moisture could support isolated showers
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Prevailing VFR at all terminals thru TAF period. North winds up to
10 knots becoming variable less than 5 knots overnight, returning
northerly after daybreak. Other than a patchy cumulus deck, skies
remain clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  82  66  80 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  65  85  65  83 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  68  82  68  82 /   0   0   0  20
VRB  67  83  68  83 /   0  10   0  20
LEE  63  85  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  84  65  82 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  65  84  66  83 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  66  83  67  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper