744
FXUS62 KMLB 040634
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
234 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Locally heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flooding issues
  will be the main threat from lightning storms this afternoon
  and early evening. Other storm threats will be gusty winds 35 to
  45 mph and occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A wet weather pattern will persist into the weekend. The main
  storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally
  heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices
  in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Current-Saturday...Very muggy conditions exist with temps well into
the 70s. Surface high pressure ridging north of the area today will
slowly slip south toward central FL into Sat. Light morning S/SW
winds will transition onshore into the afternoon with ECSB formation
and slow push inland. Should expect a late day/early evening sea
breeze collision across the interior later today, but the collision
will be closer towards the east coast on Sat. Storm steering is
light SWRLY today and more WRLY on Sat. Weak troughing in the mid-
levels will exist along the FL east coast with some mid-level energy
available for aiding convection, though temps at 500 mb remain
fairly warm at -5.0C to -5.5C. PWATs remain in excess of 2" and
diurnal PoPs 50-70% (highest interior) today and Sat. Primary
storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
locally 35-45 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a
relatively short period promoting minor/nuisance flooding in slow-
moving storms. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall through at least
Saturday.

Max temps near to slightly above climo near 90F to L90s. Humid
overnight with mins in the 70s. Peak heat indices will reach 100-
107F ahead of daily storms.

Sun-Thu...Troughiness in the mid-levels encompasses the eastern
seaboard and western Atlc thru early week before finally pushing
seaward into mid-week. Mid-level ridging will move out of the
Mountain West/Great Plains and into the Deep South to include the FL
peninsula by mid-week. Temperatures aloft remain fairly warm. At the
surface, a weak pressure pattern will remain in place. A weakening
front will push into the Deep South late Sun/early next week. This
will act to draw deep moisture into the area into at least Mon, but
there will be some drier air intrusion ahead of mid-week. Continue
higher PoPs with 70% areawide on Sun, 80% areawide Mon, 60-70%
Tue, with perhaps a bit more of a gradual drying trend into
mid/late week. Storm motion still light, but more offshore-moving
into Tue. Generally near seasonal temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with
lows in the 70s continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Thru Tue...Fairly weak pressure gradient in place with daily sea
breeze formation as winds transition to ESE/SE 10-12 kts along the
coast. Diurnal offshore-moving showers/storms into early next week.
A few strong storms possible with primary impacts of frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Coverage of storms will
be fairly high into early next week. Seas locally higher invof
storms. Seas 2-3 ft into this evening, then 1-2 ft thru Mon,
building to 2-4 ft again by Tue. Boating conditions mostly
favorable outside of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Light southerly winds persist through early this morning, with a
low chance of some VCSH along the coast. VCTS chances increase
after 17Z along the coast as the ECSB develops and moves inland,
with VCTS at the interior terminals after 18Z. Opted to wait to
add TEMPOs so timing of activity can become clearer, though they
will likely need to be added at least at the interior terminals.
SE winds around 10 knots are forecast areawide this afternoon.
After 00Z, VCSH will linger at the interior terminals and at DAB,
TIX, and MLB. Dry conditions areawide after 03Z, with light S to
SE winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  75 /  60  30  50  20
MCO  93  76  93  75 /  70  40  60  20
MLB  91  76  91  75 /  60  20  60  40
VRB  90  75  90  73 /  40  20  60  10
LEE  92  76  92  75 /  70  30  60  10
SFB  93  76  92  76 /  70  40  60  20
ORL  93  77  92  77 /  70  40  60  20
FPR  90  75  90  74 /  40  20  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen