153
FXUS62 KMLB 251448
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1048 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Mostly quiet on the KMLB WSR-88D radar this morning, with only
a couple isolated light showers over the Atlantic waters south of
Sebastian Inlet. Satellite and local observations shows some low
and high level clouds streaming over the peninsula. Deep moisture
remains over central Florida, with GOES-16 PWATs showing PWAT
values between 1.8-2.0" across ECFL this morning. This along with
the typical summertime diurnal heating pattern will support
scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
today. Light west to southwest winds today will allow the east
coast sea breeze to form and push inland. The sea breeze collision
is forecast to occur across the interior this afternoon, where
the highest coverage of showers and storms (PoP 60-70 percent) is
located this afternoon and into early evening. Have maintained PoP
40-50 percent along the coast through the evening hours, since
steering flow should be light enough to limit a higher coverage of
showers and storms being pushed back towards the coast. Similar
to yesterday, main storm hazards for any storms today will be
locally heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes,
and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms
will be capable of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute
time frame. Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy today,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices
ranging from 102 to 106 degrees. Any lingering activity should
dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight, with mostly
dry conditions expected over land tonight. Forecast remains on
track with only slight adjustments to this afternoon and overnight
rain and lightning storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR through at least 14Z within a weak pressure gradient
environment. Light SW to W flow will turn onshore (E) around 10
knots btwn 16Z-18Z at coastal terminals, increasing up to 15 knots
possible toward 00Z. The sea breeze storms should stay just west
of the coastal terminals so will handle with VCTS there. Higher
coverage of TSRA forecast over the interior assocd with boundary
collisions aft 20Z. Have added a TEMPO for MVFR conds in TSRA for
MCO/SFB/LEE btwn 21Z-24Z with lingering VCSH a couple/few hours
past 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today-Saturday...Light offshore flow shifts southward each afternoon
as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes
southerly on Saturday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze
in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally
10 kts or less. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft
across the far offshore waters. High coverage of summertime
showers and storms are forecast each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  75 /  50  30  70  20
MCO  94  75  91  76 /  70  50  70  20
MLB  91  75  91  75 /  50  30  70  30
VRB  91  74  91  74 /  50  40  70  20
LEE  94  76  93  76 /  70  40  70  20
SFB  94  76  93  76 /  60  50  70  20
ORL  94  76  92  77 /  70  50  70  20
FPR  92  74  91  74 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Kelly