259
FXUS62 KMLB 271200
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

- A cold front moves southward across the Florida peninsula today,
  with isolated shower and storm development possible.
  Temperatures turn cooler behind the front tonight and Friday.

- Deteriorating boating conditions are forecast behind the front
  as winds and seas increase, with Small Craft Advisories going
  into effect starting today.

- Low to medium rain chances anticipated across east central
  Florida early next week as a frontal boundary stalls just north
  of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Thanksgiving Day...A mid-level trough is forecast to swing
eastward across the central US towards the east coast today,
helping to push a cold front towards the area. The front will
continue a slow trek southeastward towards the local area,
reaching the far northern portions of the area early this morning.
Increasing coverage of showers are anticipated out ahead of and
along the front, with PoPs forecast between 20-30% today. Lower
confidence in shower development from Kenansville to Melbourne and
areas northward, with short-range CAM guidance favoring southern
portions of the area for shower development this afternoon. While
the environment is not overly favorable for storm development,
maintained a low chance (20%) for storm development across the
Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee due to daytime heating and
some potential lift from the front as it moves across the area.
Lightning strikes and brief wind gusts to 40 mph would be the
primary concerns with any activity that manages to develop. The
front is forecast to move south of east central Florida late this
afternoon into the evening hours, with showers and any storms
waning into the overnight hours.

Outside of rain and storm chances, the weather looks to remain
mostly cloudy across east central Florida out ahead of the front,
with cloud coverage gradually diminishing behind the front as
drier air moves southward. Winds are also forecast to increase out
of the north to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph possible. A
tight temperature gradient is forecast this afternoon, with highs
across the I-4 corridor and areas northward in the upper 60s to
mid 70s and areas southward in the mid 70s to low 80s. Tonight,
dry weather dominates as drier air settles across east central
Florida, with lows falling into the 40s across most of the area.
Some spots along the Treasure Coast will fall into the low to mid
50s.

Friday-Saturday...The mid-level trough pushes offshore and out
across the Atlantic late this week, with quasi-zonal flow aloft
anticipated through at least Saturday. At the surface, an area of
high pressure is forecast to build across the southeastern US
behind the front, slowly drifting eastward. Drier air settles
across east central Florida, keeping rain chances near zero
through the end of the week. A tight pressure gradient is forecast
across east central Florida on Friday due to the high and the
proximity of the front, which will result in breezy conditions
locally. Friday, north winds persist at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
30 mph possible, especially along the coast. Winds then veer to
out of the east on Saturday as the high becomes situated directly
north of the area, with 10 to 15 mph winds and gusts to 20 mph
possible. Cooler temperatures are forecast on Friday, with highs
in the 60s areawide and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday
night. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Saturday, with
lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday-Wednesday...Quasi-zonal flow aloft diminishes as a mid-
level trough sweeps across the central US towards the Mid-Atlantic
late this weekend into early next week, with a few weak waves of
energy forecast to move across east central Florida during this
time period. Then, towards the middle of next week, another trough
is forecast to sweep across the eastern US, with the trough
extending southward towards Florida and pushing offshore. This
pattern in the mid-levels will result in an evolving pattern at
the surface. There remains some timing discrepancies between long-
range guidance, with the GFS favoring a slightly slower solution
compared to the Euro. Regardless, guidance is favoring a frontal
boundary lifting northward across the peninsula on Sunday,
stalling north of the area Monday into Tuesday, with a cold front
then moving across the area Wednesday. This pattern will result in
increasing moisture across east central Florida, and therefore,
greater rain chances. Stuck with the NBM at 20-40% through the
period across the peninsula, but could see some increases in rain
chances on Tuesday if guidance comes into better agreement on
timing. Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out with this
activity, and will continue to monitor as the forecast evolves. By
Wednesday, the forecast calls for the passage of a cold front,
with conditions forecast to dry out across east central Florida
mid to late week.

Temperatures through the extended period are forecast to
gradually warm through Tuesday, generally between the upper 70s to
mid 80s. Slightly cooler on Wednesday as the front moves across
the area, with highs in the 70s areawide. Lows in the 60s Sunday
and Monday nights, falling into the 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night
onward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A cold front is forecast to move across the local Atlantic waters
today, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms
forecast out ahead of it today. As the front moves southward today
into tonight, drier air settles across the waters and the
pressure gradient tightens locally. This will result in increasing
northerly winds this afternoon into Friday, with wind speeds
picking up to 20 to 25 knots and gusts to 30 knots possible. This
will cause seas to gradually increase tonight into Friday,
reaching 5 to 9 feet. The highest seas are forecast to remain
primarily across the Gulf Stream waters. Small Craft Advisories go
into effect today, starting with the Volusia waters at 10 AM,
expanding to the Brevard waters at 1 PM and finally the Treasure
Coast waters at 4 PM. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through Friday and will slowly begin to drop off Friday night as
the pressure gradient loosens and winds and seas slowly subside
below advisory thresholds.

Poor boating conditions will persist into this weekend, with
onshore winds remaining remaining around 15 to 20 knots and seas
slowly subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. By Sunday, the weather pattern
begins to shift as a frontal boundary lifts northward across the
waters, stalling north of the area Monday and Tuesday. This will
result in increasing rain chances across the local waters, with
isolated storm development not able to be fully ruled out.
Variable winds remain around 10 to 15 knots through this period,
with seas staying around 2 to 5 feet. Next best chance for a
frontal passage looks to be on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Low stratus and fog developed near and north of I-4 this morning,
resulting in IFR/MVFR CIG and VIS reductions across the north
interior. Ceilings are beginning to improve at LEE/DAB as a cold
front pushes southward. Have held IFR TEMPOs at MCO/SFB/ISM
through 13Z with gradual MVFR improvements then expected behind
the front. Less confident forecast from TIX southward and CIG
impacts may be more "bouncy" through late morning and into the
afternoon. VCSH mentioned at LEE at the top of the 12Z package
where isolated showers have developed. Otherwise, the best rain
chances are forecast along the Treasure Coast late in the
afternoon. West-northwest winds shift north behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across northern
portions of east central Florida today behind a cold front that
will move southward across the peninsula. Minimum RH values fall
into the 35-40% range near and north of the I-4 corridor this
afternoon, with northerly winds picking up to around 10 mph. By
Friday, an area of high pressure develops north of the area, with
drier air settling across east central Florida. Minimum RH values
fall to 20-35% across the interior, with northerly winds of 10 to
15 mph and gusts to 25 mph possible. The Significant Fire
Potential forecast maintains a low risk across the area on Friday,
but if this were to be increased to a moderate risk, a Red Flag
issuance may be needed for portions of the area. This weekend and
beyond, moisture is anticipated to increase, with fire weather
concerns decreasing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  44  61  49 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  73  46  63  49 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  75  49  66  55 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  78  51  68  56 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  70  41  61  44 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  70  44  62  48 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  70  46  62  49 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  78  50  68  56 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Friday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Friday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law