987
FXUS62 KMLB 281054
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
654 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions continue
  along the east central Florida coast and across the local
  Atlantic waters through late week. Entering the ocean is
  strongly discouraged!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion and a HIGH risk of rip currents
  are forecast over the next several days.

- Increasing moisture will bring higher coverage and intensity of
  showers with isolated storms today, materializing near the coast
  primarily in the form of rainbands. Locally heavy rain will
  produce a risk for flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Today-Tonight...An area of low pressure positioned near the
Bahamas is anticipated to push westward across south Florida
today, dragging a stalled frontal boundary slightly northward
towards SE Florida. To the north, a strong area of high pressure
situated across the eastern US slides offshore. This set-up will
maintain a tight pressure gradient across east central Florida
today, with breezy northeast winds prevailing areawide once again.
Wind speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will be
possible, though overall conditions are anticipated to remain just
below Wind Advisory criteria. With the low moving just south of
the area through today, moisture is forecast to increase from
south to north, resulting in PWATs exceeding 1.5" across east
central Florida into this afternoon. Rain chances of 40-70% are
forecast due to the increasing moisture, along with a 20% chance
of storms with activity. Any storms that do manage to develop may
be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, wind gusts
up to 45 mph, and heavy downpours. With persistent northeast flow
both at the surface and aloft, activity will move from the
northeast towards the southwest through the day, and there is the
potential for bands of showers to develop across east central
Florida. This will increase the risk of minor, localized flooding
in spots, especially along the coast. As a result, WPC maintains
eastern portions of the forecast area within a Marginal Risk (1/4)
of excessive rainfall today. Tonight, lingering showers will
continue to be possible, though coverage is forecast to decrease.
Breezy northeast winds will slacken slightly, though some isolated
stronger gusts cannot be ruled out along the coast. Temperatures
reach the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon, warmest across the
Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Overnight, above-normal
lows are forecast in the low to mid 70s.

Dangerous coastal conditions persist along the entire east
central Florida coast today due to the ongoing northeast winds,
elevated seas, and King Tides. Moderate to locally major beach
erosion continues due to breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet, with a
High Surf Advisory remaining in effect. Coastal flooding remains a
concern today thanks to the compounding effects of already higher
surf and ongoing King Tides. While the crest today is anticipated
to be slightly lower than yesterday`s, the impacts will be
similar and a Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect.
Additionally, a high risk of rip currents continues. Overall,
conditions remain dangerous, especially during high tide, and
heading to the beach and out into the surf is strongly
discouraged.

Thursday-Friday...The surface low will continue to retrograde
through late this week, with guidance indicating that it will
weaken as it reaches the Gulf. The quasi-stationary boundary is
anticipated to remain in place across south Florida through late
week. The high to the north is forecast to continue shifting
offshore across the Atlantic, though another surface high will
replace it, building southward from the Great Lakes region.
Overall, the pressure gradient is forecast to gradually weaken
across the Florida peninsula, with northeast winds slowly
decreasing through the remainder of this week and becoming less
gusty. A plume of moisture is forecast to remain in place into
Thursday due to the stalled boundary to the south, with rain
chances staying around 30-60%, highest across the north. By
Friday, rain chances fall to 20-40%, with the highest chances
focused towards the Treasure Coast. Low chances for storm
development continue each day, right around 20%. Temperatures warm
into the 80s areawide during the afternoon, warmest towards the
southern half of the forecast area. Lows range between the upper
60s to mid 70s.

Hazardous coastal conditions persist into Thursday, with the High
Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Warning remaining in effect along
with a high risk of rip currents. By Friday, winds and seas
decrease, with growing confidence that conditions could begin to
show some signs of improvement late this week. Regardless,
hazardous conditions will still be present at the beaches and
entering the ocean will continue to not be advised.

Saturday-Tuesday...The surface high continues to build southward
from the Great Lakes this weekend, strengthening and shifting
southeastward across the eastern US before pushing offshore into
early next week. Easterly flow develops locally, prompting
moisture advection from the Atlantic towards east central Florida
that will maintain a moist airmass through the extended period.
Models are indicating the development of mid-level trough and a
weak low in the Gulf that will drift across north Florida late
this weekend into early next week, though there remains some
discrepancies relative to timing. The NBM is picking up on this
for Sunday, with an increase in PoPs on Sunday (60-70%) compared
to Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday (20-40%). Shifts in rain chances
will be possible as timing of this system becomes clearer, so stay
in tune to the forecast. Storm chances at this time remain low
through this weekend and into next week (20-30%), but again, this
may evolve as the pattern becomes clearer and guidance comes into
better agreement. Temperatures remain near to slightly above
normal values through this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to persist across the
local Atlantic waters. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts
up to 30 knots continue through today, with winds diminishing to
10 to 20 knots by Thursday. Seas stay elevated at 9 to 14 feet
today but respond to the weakening winds by subsiding to 6 to 9
feet on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
legs of the local Atlantic waters through Thursday night. By
Friday, easterly winds develop as high pressure settles to the
north, with occasional brief surges in wind speeds to 15 to 20
knots possible late this week and into the weekend. Seas of 5 to 7
feet on Friday are forecast to build once again up to 6 to 9 feet
through the weekend in response to the wind surges, with the
highest seas focused primarily across the offshore waters.
Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the offshore zones
through Friday for now, though additional extensions through the
weekend are likely needed with future forecast packages.

A moist air mass across the local Atlantic waters will result in
higher coverage of showers, with rain chances ranging between
40-70% today and Thursday. Slightly lower chances late this week
and into the early weekend (30-50%), before another surge of
moisture results in chances rising once again (60-70%). There is a
low chance (20-30%) of storm development with activity each day.
Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess
of 30 knots, and heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

TAFs begin with breezy north-northeast winds with north-
northeasterly flow in place. MVFR conditions are forecast outside
of showers except for at KMLB southwards where there are MVFR
CIGs. TEMPO groups for MVFR VIS/CIGs exist between 13Z/14Z and
17Z/18Z. Expect north-northeast winds up to around 12kts-18kts with
gusts up to 18kts-28kts (generally highest during the daytime).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  73  81  71 /  70  50  60  20
MCO  82  73  85  72 /  60  40  40  10
MLB  82  74  83  72 /  70  50  40  20
VRB  84  74  85  72 /  60  30  30  20
LEE  80  71  84  70 /  40  30  30  10
SFB  81  73  84  72 /  70  50  40  10
ORL  82  73  85  72 /  60  40  40  10
FPR  84  73  85  71 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Fehling