297
FXUS62 KMLB 061850
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through early-mid week. The main
  storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy
  rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise,
  frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph will
  also be possible.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s (few mid 90s today) will continue, with peak
  afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but below Heat
  Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again
  today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Today-tonight... Upper level high pressure will remain in place as
an upper level trough across the eastern US pushes offshore. At the
surface, high pressure axis will continue to slowly shift south and
eastward, away from ECFL, as a surface boundary moves into the Deep
South. Locally, light southwest to west winds will shift onshore in
the afternoon along the coast this afternoon with the formation of
the east coast sea breeze. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form and slowly push inland, although a quicker progression inland
is forecast across the Treasure Coast. The sea breeze collision is
forecast to occur along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon/early
evening. Storm motion will be light and northwesterly, which will
bring activity back towards the coast and out into the Atlantic.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast to form this afternoon
(PoP 30-60%). Highest coverage will be across the north Brevard to
Orange County northward. Isolated to scattered showers are currently
pushing across northern Osceola northward this afternoon from the
west as well as some showers forming along the sea breeze across the
Treasure Coast. Forecast soundings show a moist profile, although
not as moist as it has been the past couple of days, with PW values
of 1.8- 2.0". The environment supports convection, with plenty of
instability (MUCAPE of 1900-2300 J/kg), sufficient buoyancy (lifted
index of -5 to -7), slightly cooler temperatures aloft (-7C at 500
mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 800-1000 J/kg) with
some drier air in the mid levels. Because of this, main storm
hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds up to 50 mph,
small hail, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively
short period of time, promoting minor/nuisance flooding in urban
and poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
maintains a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall
for portions of east central Florida today, mainly from Vero Beach
northward and as far inland as the Orlando Metro.

Humid once again today with slightly above normal temperatures.
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices
of 100-107F. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with
lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the Great Plains
will shift eastward through mid week as the trough over the eastern
US shifts eastward and offshore through early next week. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary will drop into the Deep south and
northern Florida by early week. This frontal boundary will continue
to shift southward to near north/central to central Florida into mid
week before washing out, but there remains some uncertainty with
exactly how far the boundary will get before it washes out. The NBM
continues to key in on deep moisture surging in proximity of the
boundary, thus favoring higher than normal PoPs Monday and Tuesday
(70-80%), Wednesday-Thursday (60-70%), with only a slight dip Friday-
Saturday (50-60%). Storm motion will be fairly weak and erratic,
however some activity will periodically push back towards the coast,
especially with stronger boundary collisions. Storm impacts will be
similar to today, with locally heavy rainfall continuing to be a
concern. WPC has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a
Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday, and
all of east central Florida on Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures and
humid conditions are forecast each day, with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with
lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Today-Thursday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
period. High pressure axis will drop to the south ahead of an
approaching weak front. This weakening front is forecast to reach
north-central Florida by early week, and potentially push towards
the local Atlantic waters. Southwest to westerly flow will become
S/SE at 10-12 KT each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms.
Diurnal offshore-moving showers/storms through mid next week. Storm
motion will remain mostly light westerly (offshore moving), which
will affect the intracoastal and nearshore waters. A few strong
storms possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty
winds in excessive of 34 KT or greater, and heavy downpours.
Coverage of storms will be fairly high early to mid week. Seas
locally higher in the vicinity of storms. Seas 1-2 ft thru Monday
night, building to 2-4 ft again by late Tuesday and perhaps 5 ft
well offshore (Volusia & Brevard coasts) Tuesday night/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Ongoing isolated to scattered convection currently north and west
of the local terminals will move east-southeast through the
afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is beginning to develop, and
prevailing westerly flow (6-10 kts) should keep the boundary close
to the coast through the afternoon and evening. This will favor
the greatest coverage of showers and storms at coastal terminals
with TSRA TEMPOs at DAB/TIX/MLB and PROB30s at VRB/FPR/SUA.
Otherwise, VCTS is mentioned at all east central Florida
terminals. Some convection may linger along the coast through
around 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  75  87 /  30  80  60  60
MCO  76  92  75  91 /  30  80  50  80
MLB  76  91  75  90 /  30  70  60  70
VRB  74  90  74  89 /  20  70  60  70
LEE  75  90  75  89 /  40  80  40  80
SFB  76  91  75  90 /  40  80  50  80
ORL  77  91  76  90 /  30  80  50  80
FPR  74  90  74  89 /  20  70  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Law