152
FXUS62 KMLB 200626
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all east central Florida
  counties between 10 AM and 7 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to
  112F. Practice heat safety!

- Slight relief from high heat indices this weekend, with
  increased coverage of showers and storms, but high temperatures
  persist in the lower to mid-90s.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each
  afternoon through early next week. Gusty winds to 50-55 mph,
  small hail, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours will be the
  main storm hazards.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Today-Tonight...Little change to the overall pattern today. A
stalled boundary over the Southeast keeps the Atlantic ridge axis
southeast of the Florida peninsula at the surface. Aloft, an upper
level low lingers over the the area. Light offshore flow
continues today, initially delaying the development of the sea
breeze to around 2 PM. Winds then back southeast at the coast and
increase to around 10 mph. As the sea breeze moves inland through
the day, this will be the primary focus for afternoon convection.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-60%) are forecast to
develop along the boundary, then push inland. Propagation of
storms will become increasingly erratic due to light storm
motions, with cells developing along outflow boundary collisions.
Upper level support from the low, drier air in the mid levels
(DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) due to a bit of Saharan Air Layer (SAL),
and steep low level lapse rates will lead to a few strong storms,
capable of wind gusts to 50-55 mph. A few locally higher gusts
will be possible. Other hazards include lightning strikes, locally
heavy rainfall, and small hail (500 mb temperatures near -8 C).
Convection looks to linger, mainly over the interior, through much
of the evening hours. However, expect storms to diminish by
midnight.

Hot August temperatures persist today, with highs reaching the
lower to mid-90s. Humid conditions will continue to produce max
heat indices between 108 to 112 degrees. Thus, another Heat
Advisory has been issued from 10 AM to 7 PM for all of the
forecast area, with increased precipitation and cloud cover
helping to moderate heat indices by the early evening. Overnight,
warm and muggy conditions continue, with lows in the mid to upper
70s.

Friday-Sunday...The upper level low lingers over the forecast area
Friday, before it then weakens and is picked up by an upper level
trough digging through the eastern US this weekend. At the
surface, southwesterly flow under 10 mph continues, as the
Atlantic ridge remains across South Florida. Near normal coverage
of showers and storms will persist through the weekend, with PoPs
40-60%. Strong to borderline severe wind gusts will remain a
threat from any storms, as another wave of SAL approaches the
peninsula. Steering flow increases slightly through the period
(from 5 kts to 10 kts) out of the southwest, helping to keep the
highest convection and the east coast sea breeze over the eastern
half of the state. Showers and storms will remain focused during
the afternoon hours, but will linger into the evenings before
drier conditions develop by around midnight.

While little changes with the overall pattern, drier air (PWATs
below 2") looks to advect into the area this weekend. This will
help with peak heat indices, ending the streak of advisory or near
advisory conditions. However, additional Heat Advisories will be
possible for at least portions of the area once again Friday.
Highs remain in the lower to mid-90s, despite the somewhat lower
humidity and apparent temperatures will linger at 100-106 degrees.

Monday-Thursday...The stalled boundary lifts northward next week,
allowing the Atlantic ridge axis to also move northward across the
area. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge over the southern
plains looks to shunt an upper level trough across the Florida
peninsula. Locally, the most appreciable change will be for
southerly flow to prevail, aiding the east coast sea breeze inland
each afternoon. While the highest coverage of showers and storms
will move inland, in turn, widespread scattered to numerous
coverage remains forecast, with upper level support from the
trough. High temperatures moderate into the lower 90s, but high
humidity will maintain peak heat indices 100-107. Fortunately,
heat indices are forecast to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail. The Atlantic ridge
axis remains south of the local waters through the weekend,
maintaining overall light offshore flow. Will see the ridge shift
northward next week, backing winds southerly. Regardless, daily
sea breezes at the coast will produce south to southeasterly
winds, with flow overall around 10 kts or less. Seas 1-3 ft.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each
afternoon. Chances for offshore-moving convection increases into
the weekend, especially during the evenings. Storms will be
capable of wind gusts in excess of 35 kts and the strongest could
produce gusts to near 50 kts, in addition to lightning strikes and
small hail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Quiet conds expected overnight through the morning hours with
storm redevelopment expected after around 18Z. Light/VRB winds
becoming onshore along the coastal terminals with the afternoon
sea breeze. Hi-res guidance supports 40-60% coverage of showers
and storms today, esp in the late afternoon/early evening. Focus
seems to favor the interior and MCO area, with perhaps some
activity closer to the coast on the sea breeze. Added TEMPOs for
interior sites and PROB30s at the coast for storm impacts; will
reassess with later updates and determine whether TEMPOs will
eventually be required at most/all sites based on incoming
guidance for the 12Z TAF suite.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  92  76 /  60  20  60  20
MCO  96  77  94  76 /  60  20  60  20
MLB  93  77  92  77 /  50  30  60  30
VRB  93  75  93  76 /  40  30  60  30
LEE  94  76  93  76 /  60  20  60  10
SFB  95  77  94  77 /  60  20  60  20
ORL  95  78  93  77 /  60  20  60  20
FPR  92  76  92  75 /  40  20  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Heil