467
FXUS62 KMLB 020548
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
148 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Scattered to Numerous showers with embedded lightning forecast
  today with locally heavy rainfall the primary hazard. Greatest
  focus Melbourne southward.

- A HIGH Risk of rip currents exists at all central Florida
  Atlantic beaches today. It is strongly advised to not enter the
  dangerous surf!

- Near to slightly above normal high temperatures are forecast
  with above normal low temperatures through late week and into
  early next week; a warming trend is expected through at least
  this weekend. Heat indices are forecast to reach the low 100s by
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current-Tonight...More sunshine early in the period across the
interior with morning rainfall along the coast and adjacent
coastal waters providing more cloud-cover here. Highs may still
recover into the M-U80s across coastal counties and U80s to around
90F in spots into the interior. Humid conditions with peak heat
indices in the M90s to near 100F. Onshore flow will push the ECSB
into the interior once again. PWATs in excess of 2" areawide with
warming temperatures aloft and a few subtle weak shortwave
impulses will traverse the area. Will see how the atmosphere
recovers from earlier convection, but we are still expecting SCT-
NMRS (50-70%) shower/lightning storm chances (beginning southward)
thru this aftn/early evening. Primary storm impacts remain
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 35-50 mph
locally, and heavy downpours. Minor flooding remains a
possibility, esp areas that receive repeated rounds and locations
that have recently seen heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction
Center has recently placed south Brevard and the Treasure Coast in
a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall this afternoon onward.
There should be a lull in convective activity mid-late evening,
though we will still monitor for late evening/overnight re-
development of activity along the coast. For now, not expecting
the degree of rainfall totals that we observed in parts of the
Treasure Coast this past overnight and early morning. Warm and
humid conditions continue, with mins in the L-M70s across the
interior and M-U70s at the coast.

Fri-Sat...Mid-level ridging centered just off of the Carolina coast
will drift slowly south to off of the ECFL coast. Mid-level temps
will remain relatively warm at -5.0C to -6.0C. At the surface, high
pressure also off the Carolina coast will get nudged further into
the western Atlc with assoc ridge axis remaining north of ECFL. E/SE
winds in the low-levels and will be enhanced each afternoon at the
surface with sea breeze formation and push inland. Deep layer
moisture remains consistent (PWATs 2.15-2.30"). Diurnal shower
and storm chances remain elevated (50-70%) - and will still have
to monitor coastal locations late evening/overnight/early morning
for potential heavy rainfall during these periods. Primary storm
hazards will continue to be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and
locally heavy downpours.

Max/min temps near/slightly above normal with highs in the
U80s-L90s and lows in the L-U70s. Peak heat indices will approach
98-103F. Highest low temp values at the coast.

Sun-Wed...Mid-upper level ridging off of the central FL east coast
will retrograde back across the FL peninsula and emerge into the
southern Gulf early next week, while on a weakening trend. This as
an upper trough pushes into the Deep South and into north FL
Tue/Wed. At the surface, a decaying quasi-stationary front over the
Deep South and northern Gulf will give way to an approaching weak
"cool" front that will move into north FL by early Mon continuing
to drop south into central FL thru late Mon and remaining in the
vicinity into mid-week. Unseasonably deep moisture (PWATs > 2")
will persist across the region. This will continue to promote
higher than normal rain chances thru the period. ISOLD strong
storms will be possible but warmer temps aloft may stifle this
somewhat. With that said, we will need to monitor for a heavy
rainfall threat. High and low temperatures will continue to be
slightly above normal thru Mon, but our max temps may get knocked
back down to near to slightly below normal (esp north) behind the
boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Thru Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions are
forecast outside of showers/lightning storms as high pressure
builds off the mid Atlc coast, then gets nudged further seaward
into the weekend. E/SE winds predominant into Sun evening with
speeds 5-10 kts increasing to 10-15 kts each afternoon with sea
breeze formation. A weakening "cool" front approaches the local
area early next week and lingers into mid-week. Seas generally
2-3 ft thru early Tue next week, with occasional heights to 4 ft
over the Gulf Stream. With the next low pressure system, seas are
forecast to build thru the day on Tue-Wed (north/south).
Cautionary Statements and Small Craft Advisories north of
Sebastian Inlet may become necessary during this time.

Rain and lightning storm coverage (SCT-NMRS) will remain above
normal thru the period. Greatest coverage of this activity will
occur into the overnight and morning hours. Storm steering is
generally toward the north/northwest into at least early Sat, then
perhaps offshore-moving (diurnal) convection later in the weekend
and into early next week. Winds/seas locally higher invof storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Rounds of showers and occasional storms are forecast near coastal
terminals this morning, primarily from the Cape southward. Early
morning TEMPOs are included from MLB southward for VIS/CIG
reductions beneath locally heavy showers and storms. Into the
afternoon, evolution of showers and storms becomes uncertain. Have
continued to mention afternoon VCSH/VCTS at all terminals for
now, and continuing to monitor trends for any potential SHRA/TSRA
PROB30s or TEMPOs later in the day. Locally higher winds around
10-12 kts have been observed around coastal showers this morning.
Otherwise, east-southeast winds around 5 kts increase near 10 kts
late morning and into midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  87  76 /  40  40  40  20
MCO  90  76  89  75 /  60  20  60  30
MLB  88  77  88  77 /  50  50  40  20
VRB  89  77  89  77 /  50  50  40  20
LEE  90  74  88  74 /  60  40  60  30
SFB  89  76  88  75 /  50  30  60  30
ORL  89  76  88  76 /  60  20  60  30
FPR  88  76  89  76 /  50  50  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law