979
FXUS62 KMLB 251830
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- Shower and storm chances increase into Thursday and beyond, with
  a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Thursday and Friday.

- Heat continues to be a concern over the next few days as peak
  heat indices reach 100 to 105. Proper precautions should be
  taken to prevent heat-related illnesses.

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at all area beaches
  through tonight and into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Current-Tonight...Some isolated shower and storm activity has
started to develop across east central Florida this afternoon as a
weak east coast sea breeze moves inland. CAM guidance continues
to favor increasing coverage across Lake County and western Orange
and Osceola counties over the next couple of hours, with activity
moving westward out of the forecast area by the evening hours.
Kept PoPs around 20 to 40 percent over this area, slowly
diminishing across the interior into the overnight hours.
Continued shower and storm development will be possible across the
local Atlantic waters during the overnight hours, with some
activity moving onshore the Treasure Coast overnight into early
Thursday morning. Elsewhere, conditions are forecast to remain
mostly dry. Winds become light overnight out of the southeast, and
lows remain near normal in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday- Friday...A mid-level low is forecast to slowly move
northward across the peninsula through the end of the work week,
with the surface high remaining weak across the area. Southerly
flow develops as the ridge axis moves southward over Florida,
advecting moisture northward with PWATs increasing to 1.7 to 1.9
inches across the area. With the mid-level support, greater
moisture present, and the development of the east coast sea breeze
each afternoon, PoPs are forecast to be 50 to 70 percent each day
across the area, with the highest coverage focused across the
interior portions of east central Florida on Thursday, and
encompassing most of the area on Friday.

Storm development is also anticipated across east central Florida
each day, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of
east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather
each day. Sufficient daytime heating will allow SBCAPE values to
reach 1800-2300 J/kg on Thursday and 1500-2000 J/kg on Friday,
meaning there will be plenty of energy present to help storms
develop. DCAPE values of 800 to 100 J/kg will be possible thanks to
some drier air aloft. Temperatures aloft are forecast to remain in
the -10 to -8C range, with the cooler temperatures aloft focused on
Thursday. Shear and SRH values for each day are not overly
concerning based on modeled soundings, with steering flow remaining
a bit weak on Thursday and increasing out of the southwest on
Friday. Based on the environment described, the primary storm
concerns each day will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds,
and small hail. Any slow-moving storms could lead to the development
of minor, localized flooding in low-lying places and urban areas
with poor drainage. While the tornado threat appears low for
Thursday and Friday, a brief funnel cloud or tornado cannot be fully
ruled out, especially if there are multiple boundary collisions
occurring. Shower and storm activity is forecast to diminish into
the overnight hours each day as daytime heating is lost and the
environment becomes worked over. Continued shower and storm
development will be possible across the local Atlantic waters
through the overnight hours.

Temperatures across east central Florida are forecast to remain near
to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
each day. With the increasing moisture, humidity will combine with
these temperatures to produce peak heat indices in the 100 to 105
range, especially on Friday. Those spending extended periods of time
outdoors prior to any convection are encouraged to take frequent
breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building and remain
adequately hydrated. Conditions remain muggy overnight, with lows in
the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Wednesday...The mid-level low is forecast to remain in
place across the peninsula into the weekend, with another mid-level
low approaching the area into early next week. At the surface, a
broad, weak area of high pressure is forecast to remain in place
across the local Atlantic waters, with the ridge axis draped across
central Florida. Southerly flow is anticipated to persist locally,
helping to advect moisture towards the area. Rain chances remain
high through the weekend and into early next week, with PoPs 50 to
70 percent. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each
afternoon, with gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours the
primary concerns. Activity is forecast to diminish into the
overnight hours each day, with a low chance for isolated to
scattered showers and storms continuing across the local Atlantic
waters.

Afternoon highs remain near normal for this time of year, reaching
the upper 80s to low 90s, but the combination of these temperatures
with the humidity will lead to peak heat indices reaching 100 to 103
in some spots, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Greater
coverage of moderate HeatRisk also returns to the forecast Tuesday
and Wednesday, meaning sensitive groups will have a greater risk for
heat stress and heat-related illness. Lows remain near normal in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through the remainder of this week and into
the weekend as a result of a broad area of high pressure remaining
in place. Seas are forecast to be 1 to 3 feet through the period,
with winds remaining below 15 knots. What may lead to less than
ideal boating conditions, however, is the increasing rain and
storm chances forecast from Thursday and beyond. Greater moisture
locally will cause PoPs to increase to 50 to 70 percent, with
storm hazards including lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy
downpours. Ongoing activity into the overnight hours also cannot
be ruled out each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR forecast for the majority of the TAF period. However,
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon from MCO/ISM to LEE may impact terminals
with brief MVFR/IFR conds, including gusty winds greater than
30-35 kt and frequent lightning possible. Activity should move
west of the sites by 23z. TEMPO was included at LEE where the
highest probability for TSRA exists for now. Otherwise, expect
ESE winds 5-10 kt inland, up to 14 kt at the coast.

SHRA are once again possible after 05z Thu. along the Treasure
Coast terminals. Included VCSH for FPR/SUA for now until
confidence grows in exact timing/potential. After 18z Thu., TSRA
are forecast again, esp. across northern terminals (ISM/MCO/TIX
northward).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  73  91 /  10  40  30  70
MCO  74  93  74  93 /  10  70  30  70
MLB  76  88  75  90 /  20  60  30  70
VRB  72  90  72  91 /  30  60  40  70
LEE  74  92  74  91 /  10  70  30  70
SFB  74  93  74  93 /  10  60  30  70
ORL  75  93  75  92 /  10  60  30  70
FPR  71  88  71  90 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Schaper