933
FXUS62 KMLB 041933
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
233 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

-  Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern
   Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and
   do not walk or wade through floodwater!

-  Low rain chances (around 20-30%) through this evening, with
   mostly dry conditions forecast from Thursday through the
   weekend. High temperatures will remain very warm through Friday
   reaching the mid 80s.

-  A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today
   at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the
   ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Currently-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a
storm or two will develop through early this evening, mainly across
the interior with a diffuse inland moving east coast sea breeze.
However, rain chances remain on the low side (around 20-30%). Into
tonight, a weak onshore flow may still be able to generate a few
showers that can reach the coast, mainly south of the Cape. There
are some low probabilities (30% or less) for patchy fog to develop
late tonight across the interior as onshore winds weaken, and have
added it to the forecast from around Orlando area north. Should any
fog form, visibilities will improve past daybreak Thursday. Lows
tonight will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Weak front moving into the southeast U.S. late
this week will weaken the influence of the area of high pressure
offshore the eastern U.S. seaboard. This will decrease onshore winds
across the region, with E/NE winds on Thursday only around 5-10 mph
and then winds will become somewhat light and variable into Friday.
Drier air gradually moves in, with mostly rain-free conditions
forecast through late week. There may be a few showers that can
still develop mainly near to northwest of the I-4 corridor. However,
most areas look to remain dry, which will help floodwaters across
southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast to continue to
gradually recede. However, residents and visitors should continue to
avoid any flooded roadways and remain out of any lingering
floodwaters.

Highs will remain warmer than normal in the mid 80s through late
week, with overnight lows mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday-Tuesday...A weak cool front pushes through Central Florida
into Saturday. Moisture with this boundary remains limited and
therefore looks to be a mostly dry frontal passage. Winds shift out
of the north-northwest Saturday and then gradually veer onshore
through late weekend into early next week as high pressure builds in
behind this boundary. The forecast keeps rain chances rather low (10-
20%) through much of the period, but there is increasing uncertainty
in the overall pattern into early next week as significant
differences remain between the models. The GFS still shows a robust
cut-off low aloft across the southern U.S shifting east, developing
an area of low pressure over the Gulf. This system moves NE and
pushes a cold front (leading to wetter/stormier conditions) across
the area on Tuesday. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models keeps
the mid level feature weaker, delaying any rain chances until the
middle of next week. Currently the forecast leans toward the
ECMWF/Canadian, but will have to continue to monitor trends in
future model runs. Temperatures trend cooler, closer to more normal
values for this time of year by late weekend into early next week,
with highs in the upper 70 to low 80s and lows in the 60s
(potentially upper 50s NW of I-4).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Tonight-Thursday...Boating conditions will continue to improve and
become generally favorable tonight into Thursday. However, through
the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, small craft will
need to continue to exercise caution offshore for lingering seas up
to 6 feet. Otherwise, E/NE winds will persist across the waters
around 5-10 knots, with seas around 3-5 feet. Conditions will remain
mostly dry, but can`t rule out a few showers developing in the
onshore flow pushing westward and onshore, mainly south of the Cape.

Friday-Monday...A weak front approaches and eventually moves across
the waters into Saturday, with weaker and somewhat variable winds on
Friday becoming N/NW up to 10-15 knots Saturday into Saturday night.
Winds veer to the NE on Sunday and are forecast to remain onshore
into early next week as high pressure builds in behind the front.
Seas remain around 3-5 feet on Friday, but a building swell and
northerly winds behind the front are forecast to build seas to 6
feet offshore into the weekend, producing poor boating conditions.
Frontal passage will be mostly dry, but may see isolated showers
develop, especially over the offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1238 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period outside of any
showers. VCSH is forecast at KMCO/KSFB/KISM/KLEE after 19Z. Expect
east-southeast winds at 5kts-10kts with gusts up to 18kts at
times to weaken tonight after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  84  67  84 /  10  10   0  20
MCO  69  86  69  86 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  71  83  69  84 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  71  85  69  85 /  20  10   0  10
LEE  69  86  69  86 /  10  20  10  20
SFB  69  87  69  86 /  10  10   0  20
ORL  69  86  68  86 /  10  10   0  20
FPR  70  84  69  84 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling