057
FXUS62 KMLB 172335
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
735 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Heat concerns persist across east central Florida through at
  least mid- week due to above-normal afternoon highs and peak
  heat indices nearing or reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

- Increasing moisture areawide from Tuesday onward will support a
  return to near-normal rain and storm chances across east
  central Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Today-Tonight... Broad upper level high pressure across the southern
US and Florida will remain in place through the day. At the surface,
high pressure across the Gulf will remain in place with the Atlantic
ridge axis drifting southwards as a weakening frontal boundary
shifts southward across the southeastern US. Locally, offshore flow
will persist, both at the surface and aloft, with flow remaining
weak. The east coast sea breeze has formed this afternoon, mainly
from Cape Canaveral southward, turning the winds south to
southeasterly along the coast. The sea breeze is forecast to form
north of Cape Canaveral as well later this afternoon, but is
expected to remain fairly close to the coast. A pool of higher
moisture (PW values of 2.0-2.3") will filter down across the
northern part of the CWA head of the aforementioned frontal
boundary, while drier air (PW values around 1.6-1.9") remains across
the southern part of the warning area. This will result in better
rain chances across the north, mainly from Kissimmee to Cape
Canaveral northward, where rain chances are 20-50 percent this
afternoon. Already this afternoon we have scattered showers and
storms moving in from the west coast of Florida, and moving
across Lake County and into Volusia County.

The environment will support convection this afternoon, with
forecast soundings showing  plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500
J/kg), ample buoyancy (Lifted Index of -5 to -7), and sufficient dry
air aloft with downdraft potential (DCAPE 900-1300 J/kg). Main storm
hazards today will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to
55 mph, and locally heavy downpours. Storm motion will be to the
east through the day, eventually moving offshore. Any lingering
activity will dissipate or move offshore this evening, becoming dry
overnight with light westerly flow returning across the area.

Another hot and humid day today, with above normal temperatures
forecast. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s
across east central Florida this afternoon, which some locations
will be near their daily record highs (see climate section below).
These hot temperatures combined with high humidity will produce
peak heat indices of 108- 112F. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for all of east central Florida through 8 PM this evening.
Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or an air conditioned
building will be crucial for those spending extended periods of
time outdoors. Residents and visitors alike are encouraged to
practice heat safety to help avoid developing heat illness.
Temperatures overnight will remain warm and muggy, with overnight
lows in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday-Sunday... Upper level high pressure across the southern US
will continue to broaden through the week. A trough around the Great
Lakes region will slowly shift eastward towards New Brunswick by
late week, deepening across the eastern US and expanding farther
southward through the weekend with a series of shortwaves traversing
the base of the trough. At the surface, high pressure in the central
Gulf will slowly shift eastward through the week, with the Atlantic
high remaining in place. Locally, the high pressure in the Gulf will
maintain persistent offshore flow through the period. The east coast
sea breeze is forecast to form each day, turning the winds onshore
along the coast. Moisture will increase across the area this week,
with forecast PW values ranging from 1.7-2.3". This will allow a
return of dirunally-driven showers and lightning storms each day
through the time period. Rain chances will become near normal for
this time of year, with PoPs ranging between 40-60 percent each
afternoon, with the sea breeze collision favoring the eastern side
of the peninsula each day. Showers and storms will push offshore in
the dominate westerly flow. Storms will be capable of producing
frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. Any lingering activity will push offshore or dissipate
into each evening.

Hot and humid conditions will persist through at least Wednesday,
with temperatures forecast to trend slightly downwards late week and
into the weekend due to the higher rain chances. Additional Heat
Advisories for portions of ECFL may be needed, especially through
mid week. Overnight lows will be seasonable to slightly above normal
each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
week. The Atlantic ridge axis will slowly shift south of the local
Atlantic waters today and is forecast to remain south through this
week. Moisture will increase over the local waters ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary as it stalls and washes out across
north Florida. Rain and storm chances will increase starting today
north of Cape Canaveral, expanding to include all the waters from
Tuesday onward. Storm movement will be offshore through the period
in the dominate westerly flow. Storms will be capable of producing
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 KT, heavy
downpours, and locally higher seas. Outside of storms, winds will be
west to southwest at 5-10 KT through the week, becoming onshore
(south to southeast) each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
forms and pushes onshore. Seas 1-2 ft, with occasional 3 ft seas
across the offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A low chance for additional shower and storm development exists
along portions of the Brevard coast this evening, and have kept
VCTS at MLB/TIX through 02Z. Otherwise dry conditions with light
west winds into tonight. The sea breeze will struggle to develop
and move inland against prevailing westerly flow again tomorrow,
and any associated wind shifts should be limited to the coast.
Increasing moisture will support a seasonal pattern of scattered
afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow with VCTS at all east central
Florida terminals.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today:

Site          Aug 17
Daytona     96  (1990)
Leesburg    98  (2005)
Sanford     97  (2005)
Orlando     99  (1929)
Melbourne   97  (2022)
Vero Beach  98  (2022)
Fort Pierce 97  (2022)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  94  78  94 /  20  60  30  60
MCO  78  97  79  95 /  10  60  30  60
MLB  79  96  78  94 /  20  50  20  60
VRB  76  95  76  94 /  10  40  20  60
LEE  79  95  79  94 /  10  50  30  60
SFB  79  95  79  94 /  20  60  30  60
ORL  80  96  80  95 /  10  60  30  60
FPR  77  95  76  93 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Law