322
FXUS62 KMLB 261754
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
154 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions today will persist into at
  least Sunday with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip
  currents, and rough, pounding surf continuing. Entering the
  ocean is not advised!

- A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into
  early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions
  gradually filter down the peninsula.

- Rain and storm chances return to the forecast from Tuesday
  onward as moisture begins to increase once again across the
  area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures towards the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level cutoff low paired with a nor`easter off
the North Carolina coast will slowly move northward through the day.
At the surface, broad high pressure will build over the Florida
peninsula. Locally, breezy northerly winds will persist today, with
speeds around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the
coast with gusts to around 20 mph possible at times. Drier air will
filter down across the local area today, with forecast PW values
dropping to 0.8-1.3" this afternoon. This will result in little to
no rain and lightning storm chances today, with the greatest
potential for rain (PoP 20 percent) occurring across the southern
Treasure Coast. Seasonable temperatures are forecast today, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with heat indices in the 80s
to potentially up to 90s degrees in the Treasure Coast. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

Despite the pleasant weather, beach conditions are forecast to
remain poor to hazardous today. Seas will be slow to subside through
the day. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect today, with
breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet, resulting in rough hazardous surf
persisting. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Sunday-Monday... The upper level cut-off low and associated
nor`easter off the eastern seaboard Sunday will lift northward,
eventually pushing onshore across the New England coast by Monday.
At the surface, broad high pressure will continue to build over the
Florida peninsula as high pressure across the western Atlantic
slowly builds westward towards the Caribbean. Locally, drier air
will filter across the area, with forecast PW values falling to 1.0-
1.2" areawide. This will result in little to no rain and storm
chances into early next week. The highest rain chances (PoP 20
percent) will be across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday. The
pressure gradient slackens over the local area, with winds becoming
light and variable through the period. Seasonable temperatures are
forecast into early next week. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in
the low to mid 80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Peak heat
indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees along the
coast by Monday.

Poor to hazardous conditions are forecast to continue at the beaches
through at least Sunday as seas are slow to subside through early
next week. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through at least
Sunday, though it will may continue into Monday as well. Breaking
waves of 3 to 6 feet will also persist, so rough, hazardous surf
will also be present. Overall, entering the ocean is strongly
discouraged through at least Sunday.

Tuesday-Friday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard early
next week will push off shore by midweek. A surface high pressure in
the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through the period.
Model solutions begin to diverge later into the period. The global
models vary slightly in timing and location of a mid-upper level
trough and associated surface low swinging across the CONUS,
bringing the attendant surface front towards Florida mid to late
next week. Locally, onshore winds will remain in place, although
there is some uncertainty if the winds will be more easterly or
southeasterly. Moisture looks to recover slightly, however exactly
how much remains in questions as forecast PW values range from near
to below normal to above normal depending on the model. This has
resulted in decreasing confidence in forecast rain chances and heat
impacts. For now, have rain chances broadly increasing from
near/below normal Tuesday, becoming near/above normal Wednesday
through Friday (with rain chances increasing each day). Lightning
storm chances also return on Wednesday onward. Temperatures will be
seasonably warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s. Due to the increase in moisture, peak heat indices will be in
the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today-Wednesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue
today with breezy north to northeast winds at 10-15 KT with gusts 20-
25 KT today. Winds will continue to subside, with speeds 5-10 KT
Sunday. Winds then shift offshore by Monday and Tuesday, remaining
light before backing onshore each afternoon with the east coast sea
breeze and increasing to around 10 KT. Seas 4-8ft in the nearshore
and 6-9 ft in the offshore waters today will subside to 3-7ft by
Sunday. Seas will continue to subside to 3-5ft on Monday, and 2-3ft
on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for all the waters through this afternoon, before tapering off to
just the Gulf Stream waters this afternoon through tonight. Poor
boating conditions will remain through at least the weekend.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be
possible across the Treasure Coast waters today, with no mentionable
rain chances on Sunday. Rain chances return on Monday as moisture
increases once again, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
focused across the Treasure Coast waters, and scattered to numerous
showers and storms forecast across all the waters on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR through the TAF period. N to NE winds 7-10 knots, gusting
15-18 kts at coastal terminals. Sufficient low level moisture is
producing a fair weather cu field with bases btwn 035-050 AGL.
Light offshore (N/NW) drainage flow redevelops tonight aft 03Z
with some increase in cirrus. On Sun, NE winds around 10 knots
will develop behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals aft 16Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is
forecast to continue to rise, cresting on Sunday due to an ongoing
period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are
forecast to then subside slightly before remaining steady through the
middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  84  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  85  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  69  84  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  67  84  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  64  86  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  85  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  84  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  67  85  67  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Kelly