557
FXUS62 KMLB 031759
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
159 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

- Hot and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices up to
  107 and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will continue
  through the first half of the week.

- Near to above normal rain chances will offer some respite from
  the heat, but also bring risk of strong storms capable of gusty
  winds, deadly lightning, and very heavy rain.

- Swell from distant disturbances arriving at the Central Florida
  beaches will increase the risk of dangerous rip currents.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Today-Tonight...A weak front continues to sag south towards North
Florida, extending across the North Gulf Coast to the Southwest
Atlantic for its protracted stay. One low pressure system has
already formed offshore of the Carolinas along this boundary
(AL95), which will help keep the ridge axis of the Bermuda High
suppressed to the south today, continuing southwesterly flow
across Central Florida. This will once again pin the east coast
sea breeze through much of the day, not making an inland run until
late in the afternoon, while an enhanced west coast sea breeze
charges across the peninsula. Expect initial showers and storms to
develop on the sea breezes and lake breeze boundaries early in
the afternoon, which could help get segments of the east coast sea
breeze moving inland earlier than on its own, then chaotic
boundary interactions will dictate convective evolution the rest
of the afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances around 50% near
to west of the I-95 corridor across most of the area, further
inland towards Lake Okeechobee down south, around 6 PM where an
ideal sea breeze collision would occur. While PWATs are a little
above normal, most of the higher moisture is above 700mb (i.e.
altostratus and cirrostratus), and drier air resides in the
850-700mb level critical for updraft development. In addition,
dewpoints are a couple degrees lower than previous days,
indicating slightly less surface moisture which won`t help
updrafts either. The HRRR is once again pretty enthusiastic with
today`s storm chances, but HREF probabilities are less so, and
official forecast leans towards the latter with PoPs 30-50%.
There`s a little less instability than previous days due to the
low dewpoints, but still plenty available to support quick updraft
development for those that can overcome the dry mid-levels. Model
DCAPE remains about the same as yesterday, around 800 to maybe
900 J/kg. All in all the environment supports strong storms
capable of gusty winds 40-50 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and torrential downpours. While there is some weak
southwesterly steering flow around 10 kts, storm motion will be
largely driven by boundary interactions and could become
slow/erratic, delivering a quick 2-4" of rainfall leading to
ponding of water on road and minor flooding of low-lying or poor
drainage areas.

Above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the L-M90s
continue, including near the coast due to the late sea breeze
development. While heat indices are technically the lowest we`ve
seen in over a week thanks to the slightly lower dewpoints at
"only" 101-106, this will be little consolation as overall
afternoon conditions remain quite icky. Most of the area is
expected to continue seeing Moderate HeatRisk impacts, and the
Greater Orlando Area will continue to see Major HeatRisk impacts
due to the urbanization.

Monday-Tuesday...A weak upper-level blocking pattern develops and
drifts very slowly eastward over the eastern US, with troughing
on the southern side of this feature digging down to the North
Gulf Coast as shortwaves move through the pattern. At the surface
the stationary front meanders north and south a bit over North
Florida, while the low pressure system that developed on the
boundary (AL95) departs into the open Atlantic, allowing a very
weak Bermuda High ridge axis to lift into Central Florida. Surface
flow becomes light southerly, putting less pressure on the east
coast sea breeze and allowing it to develop and move inland at a
fairly typical rate (maybe a little on the late/slow side),
shifting the sea breeze collision and highest rain chances inland.
PWATs remain near to slightly above normal and drier air
continues to reside in the 850-700mb layer, but dewpoints increase
a bit which should support slightly higher coverage of showers
and storms than previous days, bringing PoPs a bit above normal at
40-70%. Strong storms capable of gust winds, deadly lightning,
and heavy rainfall. Southerly flow keeps temperatures above normal
in the L-M90s, which combined with the slight increase in low
level humidity, pushes peak afternoon heat indices up to 103-107,
flirting with advisory criteria again in a few spots. HeatRisk
impacts remain largely Moderate for East Central Florida, but
Major impacts remain possible especially across the Greater
Orlando Area.

Swell from AL95 is forecast to arrive at the Central Florida
Atlantic beaches Monday morning, increasing the risk of dangerous
rip to Moderate and possibly High.

Wednesday-Saturday...Upper-level blocking gradually loosens up
through late week, but persistent troughing over the Southeast
continues until Saturday or so, giving way to broad mid-level
ridging across the Subtropical Atlantic and Gulf. With little
large scale forcing, the stationary front continues its residency
along the North Gulf Coast and North Florida through late week,
with some signs from guidance it`ll eventually get ushered off by
early next week. In the meantime, ensemble means place a very weak
Bermuda High ridge axis near to north of Central Florida, bringing
us generally onshore/easterly flow through the period. There is a
modest amount of uncertainty in the extended range forecast due to
weak forcing, weak pressure gradient, and the continued potential
for disturbances to develop along the stationary boundary.
Fortunately the one thing guidance agrees on is disturbances that
develop along the front remain weak or well away from East Central
Florida, and the primary risk being swell increasing the rip
current risk at the beaches. With near to slightly above normal
moisture and the presence of the front, the forecast continues to
call for rain chances slightly above normal, higher inland and
lower along the coast based on the assumption of onshore flow. The
onshore flow also ushers in a slow cooling trend, bring
temperatures gradually closer to normal in the U80-L90s, for what
that`s worth.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A weak front continues to sag south towards North Florida,
extending across the North Gulf Coast to the Southwest Atlantic
for its protracted stay. A low pressure system that developed
offshore the Carolinas along this boundary (AL95) will keep the
ridge axis of the Bermuda High suppressed south today, continuing
southwesterly flow backing to the south in the afternoon and
evening with the sea breeze circulation at 5-15 kts, and seas 1-3
ft. The ridge axis lifts towards Central Florida Monday and
Tuesday as the low departs, shifting flow southerly which backs to
the southeast with the sea breeze at 5-15 kts. Seas increase to
3-5 ft Monday as swell from AL95 arrives in the local waters,
leading to choppy conditions especially in the Gulf Stream.
Confidence in the wind and seas forecast decreases Wednesday and
Thursday due to uncertainty in the development of additional
disturbances in the southwest Atlantic along the stationary front
and a very weak pressure gradient. Official forecast calls for
winds to become onshore through the second half of the week,
with seas 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers are expected
through the period, with offshore moving storms possible this
evening. Some storms could become strong and produce locally high
winds over 34 kts and frequent cloud to water lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR outside of convection. Lower coverage of showers and storms
is forecast across the north interior today, and have kept mention
of PROB30 for the greater Orlando terminals, including MCO, SFB,
and ISM. VCTS along the coast as the sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Have kept a TEMPO at TIX (22/01Z) where models suggest
reasonable confidence for TSRA impacts. Southwest winds back south
to southeast as the east coast sea breeze passes. Ongoing
convection at sunset could linger a few hours into the evening.
Dry conditions forecast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  77  92 /  40  60  30  60
MCO  77  95  77  94 /  20  70  30  60
MLB  77  92  78  92 /  30  40  20  50
VRB  74  93  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  77  94  77  93 /  20  70  30  60
SFB  78  94  77  94 /  30  70  30  60
ORL  78  95  78  94 /  30  70  30  60
FPR  74  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Law