602
FXUS62 KMLB 041146
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
646 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 249 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard
  County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and do not
  walk or wade through floodwater!

- Rain chances decrease to 20-30% today with most areas rain-free
  from Thursday through the weekend. Meanwhile, high temperatures
  will be very warm today through Friday reaching the mid 80s.

- A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today at
  all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the
  ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Today-Fri...High pressure north of the area will continue an
onshore (east) flow today that will gradually decrease through
late week as the ridge axis settles over the area. Rain chances
decrease to 20-30% today and then drier air will limit rain
chances to10% or less Thu and Fri. Max temps will be above normal
reaching the mid 80s. Heat indices will reach the upper 80s to
near 90 which will produce a minor HeatRisk for those sensitive to
the heat and without cooling or hydration.

Sat-Tue...A weak cool front is forecast push through the area
Saturday but little moisture looks assocd with the boundary so
keeping rain chances out of the forecast. High pressure will build
over the area behind the front Sun keeping conditions dry. Models
are in disagreement about early next week with the GFS more
aggressive showing a deep cut-off low across the deep South
generating a sfc low lifting NE out of the Gulf and a cold front
sweeping across central FL Tue. The ECMWF is slower and weaker
with these features keeping conds dry through Tue then showing
increased rain chances mid week. For now, PoPs are limited to
15-20% Mon-Tue. Highs in the low to mid 80s on Saturday fall to
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees Mon-Tue. Lows in the upper 50s
possible mainly near to NW of I-4 early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Today-Thu...Boating conditions will gradually improve as pressure
gradient around high pressure to the north relaxes. This will
allow the onshore wind speeds to decrease 10-15 knots today and up
to 10 knots Thu. Seas will respond subsiding 4-6 FT today and 3-5
FT Thu. Small craft should exercise caution offshore today.
Isolated showers will develop over the Atlc waters and move west
and onshore today but Thu looks dry.

Fri-Sun...Low pressure developing south of Bermuda is forecast to
send long period swells into the local Atlc waters this weekend
which could produce hazardous conditions near inlets. Winds will
be light and variable Fri then a weak cool front pushes through
Saturday with winds developing a north component (NNW-NNE) but
speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots. Isolated showers
and potentially a storm or two will be possible, mainly into the
weekend across the offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 644 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. VCSH moving onshore near TIX and
southward along the coast looks to diminish by around 14Z. Then,
isolated showers possible inland west of SFB after 19Z. Drier
conditions are expected by the evening. Onshore flow through the
period increases to 8-12 kts late this morning, then becomes light
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  69  84  67 /   0  10  10   0
MCO  85  70  86  69 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  83  71  84  70 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  85  71  85  70 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  86  69  86  69 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  86  69  87  68 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  85  70  86  69 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  84  70  84  69 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Wishard