410
FXUS62 KMLB 011910
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
310 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Scattered showers and lighting storms this afternoon and
  evening. Rain/lightning storm chances increase Tuesday with a
  risk of marginally severe storms (level 1/5) containing damaging
  winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall with minor
  flooding potential.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central
  Florida beaches through Tuesday and then a High Risk for rip
  currents thereafter; always swim near a lifeguard!

- The pattern is forecast to shift late this week behind a weak
  "cool" front that will move southward across the peninsula,
  bringing drier air, lower temperatures, and deteriorating
  boating conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Tonight-Tuesday... KMLB radar imagery currently shows scattered
showers and isolated lightning storms over portions of east
central Florida with the highest coverage over the local Atlantic
waters where there are scattered showers and lightning storms
moving east-southeast. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to
mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Winds are
generally from the west at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph.
Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to mid 80s with heat
index values in the 80s to upper 90s (hottest where it hasn`t
rained and where there is less cloud cover). Scattered showers
(50-80% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to increase in
coverage into the late afternoon and evening as convergence
increases at the surface with the east coast sea breeze pushing
inland. The main hazards with storms will be wind gusts to
40-55mph (5-14% chance), frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall
(1-3" in 90 minutes) with the potential to result in minor
flooding, mainly in low-lying areas. Rain shower (20-40%) and
lightning storm chances decrease after 7pm as they move offshore
to the east-southeast. Lows in the low to mid 70s are forecast
with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Scattered to numerous showers (50-80% chance) and lightning
storms are forecast to develop into Tuesday afternoon as a "cool"
front sags south across east central Florida and increase in
coverage as winds turn onshore with the east coast sea breeze.
There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over nearly all of
east central on Tuesday with the main time-period for strong to
severe storms between 3pm-11pm. Rain and lightning storm chances
remain high into the late evening hours before gradually tapering
off after 9-11pm. Additionally, there is a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall over Volusia and Seminole counties, as well as
portions of Lake, Orange, and northern Brevard counties. The main
hazards are damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance),
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 60-90 minutes)
with the potential to result in minor flooding. In addition, a
funnel cloud or brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Expect west
winds at 5-10mph with gusts to 15-20mph to turn onshore into the
afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values in
the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.


Wednesday-Sunday... The aforementioned "cool" front is forecast to
slowly sag south over east central Florida before reaching Martin
county by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers (40-70%) and
lightning storms are forecast across east central Florida on
Wednesday with the highest chances across the northern portions of
east central Florida in the morning and then over the southern
portions of east central Florida into the afternoon. The main
hazards are wind gusts to 40-55mph, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall (1-3" in 90 minutes) with the potential for minor
flooding, mainly over low-lying areas. Afternoon highs in the low
to mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast on
Wednesday.

Drier conditions are forecast mid to late week behind the front as
high pressure (1020-1024mb) builds over the southeastern US.
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast
each day (mainly from Brevard county southward) before rain
chances (20-40%) increase over all of east central Florida on
Sunday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast to
gradually increase into the weekend before reaching the mid 80s to
low 90s on Sunday. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Tonight-Tuesday... Generally offshore winds are forecast at
5-12kts with gusts to 12-25kts. Scattered offshore moving showers
and lightning storms are forecast into this evening. The main
hazards are damaging wind gusts in excess of 34kts (up to 5%
chance of wind gusts to 55mph), frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall. Rain chances remain high (40-90%), especially into the
evening and Tuesday night as a "cool" front sags south over the
local Atlantic waters. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms
over the nearshore waters on Tuesday with the main hazards
expected to be damaging wind gusts up to 50-60mph, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall. West winds are expected to turn
onshore into Tuesday afternoon at 5-10kts with gusts to 15kts.
Seas to 2-3ft nearshore and 4-5ft offshore (20-60nm) and over the
Gulf Stream are expected.


Wednesday-Friday... Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers
and lightning storms are forecast on Wednesday as the "cool" front
sags south over the southern Atlantic waters into Wednesday
morning. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts in excess of
34kts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Drier conditions
are expected on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over
the southeastern US. East-northeast winds to 15-25kts are
forecast with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are expected to build from
north to south through the day on Wednesday with heights to 5-8ft
nearshore and 7-10ft offshore (20-60nm) and over the Gulf Stream.
Winds diminish on Thursday from the east at 10-15kts with gusts to
20kts. Seas gradually diminish to 4-6ft nearshore and 5-7ft over
the Gulf Stream on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Very gusty SHRA/TSRA off too an early start have mostly pushed to
the coast and are working their way offshore. Another round of
afternoon-evening TS developing inland pushing offshore possible.
Low confidence in convective evolution. WRLY winds have been
gusty at times up 25 kts late this morning and afternoon, but
guidance suggest these will back off in the next couple hours.
Quiet across ECFL by 06Z at the latest. SCT-NUM, possibly WIDE
SHRA/TSRA possible Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  71  81 /  30  80  80  50
MCO  75  90  72  82 /  30  50  60  50
MLB  77  88  74  84 /  40  60  80  70
VRB  76  88  73  84 /  40  60  70  70
LEE  76  91  73  83 /  20  50  60  50
SFB  75  92  72  83 /  40  60  70  50
ORL  76  91  73  83 /  30  50  60  50
FPR  75  88  73  84 /  40  60  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley