622
FXUS62 KMLB 291829
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
229 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Shower and storm chances increase through mid to late week,
  with scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms forecast
  each day.

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all east central
  Florida Atlantic beaches today. Never enter the water alone and
  always swim near a lifeguard!

- Highs remain seasonably warm through midweek, with a slight
  warming trend late week and into the weekend. Heat indices may
  reach the low 100s Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently-Tonight...Debris cloud rainfall from earlier convection
across south Florida has been lifting northeast as upper level
winds remain relatively strong out of the southwest. Some of this
light rain as well as a few showers and storms will continue to be
possible across areas mainly south of a line from Lake Kissimmee
to Melbourne (PoPs up to 20-40%) through the afternoon/early
evening. Can`t completely rule out an isolated shower/storm
farther north, but rain chances remain quite low (10% or less).
Mostly dry conditions then forecast over land areas overnight,
with isolated to scattered showers and storms continuing over the
coastal waters. Lows tonight will mostly be in the low 70s, but
some normally cooler spots will likely see temps again fall into
the upper 60s by daybreak.

Wednesday-Friday...At the surface winds become onshore and
strengthen slightly through late week as high pressure builds off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. Easterly winds around 10 mph tomorrow
afternoon increase to 10-15 mph (slightly higher along the coast)
for Thursday and Friday. Aloft, a weakening trough will gradually be
replaced by ridge moving in from the west, pulling deeper moisture
northward across the area. PW values rise to 1.7-2.0" tomorrow and
then to 2.0-2.2" into late week. This will lead to rising shower and
storm chances through the period, with PoPs up to 30-50% tomorrow
and then 40-70% Thursday and Friday. As onshore winds become more
established, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and storms
will continue to be possible along the coast during the nighttime
and morning hours, with coverage becoming scattered to numerous
across east central FL from late morning through the afternoon along
a diffuse east coast sea breeze. Warming mid level temps and a more
saturated airmass will limit overall strong storm potential, but
still may see a few storms produce frequent lightning, strong gusty
winds and torrential downpours. Highs will be near to slightly
warmer than normal, rising from the mid to upper 80s Wednesday to
upper 80s/low 90s into late week. Warm and muggy conditions forecast
overnight, with lows in the 70s.

Saturday-Monday...Mid level ridge builds across Florida into the
weekend and lingers through early next week, with deeper moisture
shifting north and west of the region. This should lead a gradual
decrease in shower and storm chances Saturday and Sunday, before
rising again into early next week as a front approaches from the
north. Still, scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast
each day, with a few stronger storms continuing to be possible.
Temperatures remain slightly above normal through the period, as
highs continue in the upper 80s to low 90s and onshore flow keeps
overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions generally expected
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Main hazard
to boaters will be increasing development of showers and storms,
becoming scattered to numerous across the waters each day. Greatest
coverage of this activity will occur into the overnight and morning
hours, especially across the gulf stream. Otherwise, winds become
onshore as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast and ridge
axis remains north of the area. Winds become east-southeast tomorrow
around 5-10 knots and then increase up to 10-15 knots for the rest
of the period. Seas will range from 2-3 feet through Thursday,
increasing up to 3-4 feet Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Dry conditions are forecast for a majority of the forecast area
today. However, rain showers moving northward into the Treasure
Coast are expected to lead to -SHRA through around 0Z, with
PROB30s for embedded TSRA and MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VCSH
looks to return to the Treasure Coast after 10Z, expanding
northward and becoming VCTS through 18Z. Higher coverage of
showers and storms Wednesday will likely require additional VCTS
past the current TAF period (after 19Z at MCO). SSE/SE winds
10-12 kts or less prevail in the afternoons, becoming light and
variable from 0Z into the mid-morning hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage due
to tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually subside
through Minor Flood Stage this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  75  87 /  10  20  20  40
MCO  71  89  73  90 /  10  40  20  70
MLB  72  87  76  88 /  10  30  20  50
VRB  71  88  75  88 /  20  50  30  60
LEE  72  88  73  90 /  10  40  20  70
SFB  72  88  73  89 /  10  40  10  60
ORL  72  88  73  89 /  10  40  20  70
FPR  71  87  75  87 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Wishard