546
FXUS62 KMLB 151124
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
724 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Turning windy, especially at the coast, late this afternoon
  through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating
  conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough
  surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents.

- A wet pattern of onshore moving showers and a few storms is
  forecast mid to late week. Repeated bands of rain and storms
  over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban
  areas, especially later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Today-Tonight... A surface front extending over the western Atlantic
and through portions of the southeast U.S. early today is pushed
further east-southeastward as high pressure expands along the
eastern seaboard. Deep moisture persists across central Florida,
south of the surface boundary. East-northeast onshore winds begin to
increase 10-15 mph this afternoon as the local pressure gradient
begins to tighten. Showers and storms over the local Atlantic early
in the day should occasionally push onshore. A diffuse sea breeze
looks to develop late morning and the into early afternoon bringing
the greatest chances (50-60%) for showers and storms inland, west of
I-95, after 12PM. Inland activity diminishes into early evening,
while isolated to scattered rounds of showers and storms should
continue along the coast through the overnight. Poor lapse rates
should generally limit organized stronger storms today. However,
increasing background flow and winds aloft could still allow for
developing convection to produce wind gusts 40-50 mph. Otherwise,
hazards remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes and locally
heavy downpours. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonal around the
upper 80s and low 90s, but humid conditions will still produce peak
heat index values in the low triple digits (100-107F). Overnight low
temperatures will mostly range the mid to upper 70s, remaining
warmest along the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday... Continued tightening of the local pressure
gradient will further increase onshore flow to around 15-20+ mph
Wednesday with peak gusts 25-30 mph at times. This will prompt a
period of poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions, and a high
risk of life threatening rip currents along with rough surf is
expected at all local beaches. East-northeast winds diminish to
10-15 mph Thursday, remaining breezy, and a high risk of rip
currents is expected to continue. Heed the advice of lifeguards,
beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised!

A drier airmass advects across central Florida on Wednesday with a
tight moisture gradient extended southward through Lake Okeechobee.
The PoP forecast mostly reflects this showing lower rain chances
north of the Orlando Metro within the area of driest air. However,
moistening of the lower levels within increased onshore flow should
still allow for slight rain chances along the Volusia and northern
Brevard Coast, and can`t rule out a few of these showers sneaking
further inland. Otherwise, deeper moisture south should allow for
rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms
throughout the day, continuing along the coast into Wednesday
night.

Some slight adjustments have been made to the forecast into Thursday
as a mid to upper level trough over the western Atlantic approaches
Florida. Of note, some model guidance has slowed the westward
progression of this feature. These slower solutions hold onto the
drier airmass across portions of north-central Florida longer
than some of the previous forecast cycles. Therefore, rain chances
Thursday may look more similar to what is forecast Wednesday
favoring continued rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a
few storms across the south with lower rain chances north,
especially northwest of I-4.

High temperatures are forecast near normal Wednesday and Thursday,
mostly reaching the upper 80s and near 90s degrees. Morning lows in
the 70s will be highest along the coast. Areas along the Barrier
Islands may struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark each morning.

Friday-Monday... An unsettled pattern is forecast late week and into
early next week as the mid to upper level trough passes over Florida
and into the Gulf. Moisture recovers behind the trough, expanding
moderate to high rain chances more areawide. Light easterly winds
veer southeast to south late in the weekend, becoming locally
enhanced onshore as a weak sea breeze develops each day. Afternoon
temperatures continue to hold near normal in the upper 80s and
close to 90s degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions begin build late this afternoon
through mid week as high pressure expands across the eastern U.S.
Light onshore winds early today increase 15-20 kts north of the Cape
into the evening as the local pressure gradient begins to tighten.
Small Craft Advisories go into effect late this evening and
overnight for the Volusia and Brevard waters as east-northeast winds
further increase 20-25 kts. Winds 15-20 kts spread south of the
Sebastian Inlet late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Seas
begin to build 6-8 ft across the northern Volusia waters after
midnight Wednesday, spreading southward through the Treasure Coast
early Wednesday afternoon and prompting the Small Craft Advisory
to be expanded into the Treasure Coast waters. Winds and seas
show a diminishing trend early Thursday, and favorable boating
conditions return to the local Atlantic waters Friday. A generally
wet pattern begins today and is forecast through late week as a
mid to upper level low approaches and passes west of the local
Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Onshore-moving showers begin the day along the coast, increasing
in coverage through the morning hours. Activity spreads inland
with the diffuse sea breeze by around 17Z, with a few embedded
thunderstorms possible from around 18-21Z. PROB30s have been
included for brief reductions to CIGs/VIS. A brief lull in SH is
forecast along the coast after 21Z, before shower coverage
increases once again after sunset. This activity is then expected
to gradually persist long enough to impact MCO/ISM/SFB after
around 6Z.

E/ENE flow through the TAF period, increasing to 10-12 kts
through the day. Winds look to remain elevated overnight,
especially along the coast. Breezy conditions then develop
Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  78  88  76 /  50  40  40  10
MCO  91  76  89  74 /  60  20  30   0
MLB  89  79  88  77 /  50  70  70  30
VRB  89  77  88  75 /  50  70  70  50
LEE  91  76  89  73 /  60  10  10   0
SFB  90  76  88  74 /  50  30  40   0
ORL  90  77  88  75 /  60  20  40   0
FPR  89  77  88  75 /  60  60  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ552-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Wishard