204
FXUS62 KMLB 061808
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
108 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 246 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Areas of low clouds and fog will settle southward early this
  morning associated with a weak cold front. Areas north of
  Orlando may remain socked in low clouds through much of the day.

- Isolated to scattered showers with isolated lightning storms
  near and north of Orlando today. Coverage increases and builds
  further southward Sunday and Sunday night. Periods of heavy
  rain possible.

- Turning noticeably cooler next week but no frost/freeze concerns
  at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Early This Morning... A cold front is analyzed near Lake and Volusia
counties early this morning. Moisture in vicinity of the front has
allowed a deck of low stratus to spread across east central Florida.
Observations across north and west Florida have shown surface
visibility reductions as the stratus slowly sinks. Therefore, fog
remains forecast across much of east central Florida this morning,
becoming locally dense at times. If encountering dense fog on
area roadways, use your low beam headlights, reduce your speed,
and maintain a safe following distance. Persistent cloud cover may
allow fog to linger for a bit beyond sunrise, especially near and
north of I-4.

Today-Monday... The cold front remains draped across the I-4
corridor today, extending into the Gulf. Broad low pressure works to
develop along the boundary in the Gulf this weekend, eventually
passing over Florida before further organizing over the western
Atlantic late Sunday and into Monday. This will pull the stationary
front more cleanly across central Florida on Monday, a bit later
than previous model guidance had indicated. Scattered rain
chances (30-40%) remain forecast in vicinity of the stalled
boundary today, mainly north of a line from Cape Canaveral to Lake
Kissimmee. Rain chances continue into the evening, although
models may suggest some drying for a period into the late
overnight. Although timing and coverage of showers may be more
uncertain Sunday morning, a wet afternoon and evening is forecast,
especially near and north of the I-4 corridor. Scattered rain
chances begin to spread southward toward the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee late Sunday afternoon and into the overnight. Activity
then clears from north to south Monday into Monday afternoon.
Overall, surface instability looks to remain limited through the
period. Confidence in lightning remains low, although the best
chances look to be across the south late Sunday afternoon where
less cloud cover should allow for better surface heating. A
flooding rainfall threat could be present where multiple rounds
of heavy rain occur. Models key in on areas of Volusia and
northern Lake counties for seeing the highest event totals due to
the proximity of the stalled boundary. Across these areas, models
generally suggest event averages of 1-2" possible through Monday,
and localized higher event totals of 3-4" cannot be ruled out.

Increasing cloud cover and rain chances make for a tricky
temperature forecast through the weekend. Afternoon highs look to
hold above average, in the low to mid 80s, south of the I-4 corridor
where cloud cover and rain chances should generally be less. Areas
further north may see a more wide distribution of temperatures,
ranging the low 70s to low 80s. Northerly winds building behind
the front on Monday will filter a cooler airmass across central
Florida with highs spreading the low 70s across the north and
upper 70s across the far south near Lake Okeechobee. Low
temperatures are mostly forecast in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday-Friday... High pressure builds across the southeast and into
central Florida Tuesday, and conditions remain mostly dry through
the extended forecast. Highs hold near seasonal into mid week,
mostly in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures then increase into the
mid to upper 70s Friday. Lows mostly in the 50s Tuesday and
Wednesday fall into the upper 40s and low 50s across most areas
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

A weak cold front stalls near Cape Canaveral this weekend. As a
result, north to northwest winds develop north of the Cape today
while south to southwest winds hold across the southern waters.
Winds mostly around 10 kts, except for a short duration surge of
north winds near 20 kts across the Volusia waters this evening.
Winds become variable Sunday as weak low pressure approaches from
the west. This area of low pressure will work to pull the front
south of Jupiter Inlet Monday with north winds increasing near 20
kts Monday night. Winds quickly diminish into Tuesday, gently
shifting out of the north-northeast. Seas remain generally favorable
ahead of the front, ranging 2-4 ft and occasionally 5 ft
offshore. Poor to hazardous seas build late Monday, increasing to
5-7 ft. This will persist through Tuesday before beginning to
slowly diminish on Wednesday. Scattered showers are forecast
today, primarily north of Cape Canaveral. Coverage increases and
builds further southward on Sunday and Sunday night, clearing from
north to south Monday behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Some MVFR CIGs continue this afternoon, mainly north of SFB, as
the stalled front lingers just to our north. MVFR/IFR CIGs are
forecast to return by late afternoon and into tonight, as the
stalled front lingers across the area and may shift down near
LEE/DAB. Guidance is hinting at VIS reductions tonight, mainly
across the interior sites and DAB. Have held off on putting those
reductions in as of now, but will reexamine next TAF package. VCSH
is ongoing this afternoon, mainly from DAB to LEE, but is
forecast to shift southward from MLB northward later this
afternoon and into this evening. Brief period Sunday morning
(around 14/15Z) where conditions dry south of LEE/DAB before rain
rain chances increase once again Sunday afternoon (around 17/18Z).
Lightning storm chances return to the forecast starting around
21Z on Sunday areawide. West winds around 10-12KT today will
become light and northerly overnight before turning Southerly and
increasing to 5-10 KT by Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  75  60  70 /  50  70  80  20
MCO  64  81  65  73 /  40  50  70  40
MLB  65  82  64  75 /  20  40  70  50
VRB  64  83  64  76 /  10  30  60  60
LEE  60  77  61  71 /  50  70  80  20
SFB  62  79  62  72 /  40  60  70  30
ORL  63  79  64  72 /  40  60  70  30
FPR  64  84  64  77 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Watson