973
FXUS62 KMLB 020649
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
249 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible today, mainly this
  afternoon and evening, with the potential for damaging winds,
  large hail, frequent lightning, and a non-zero tornado risk

- A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central
  Florida beaches today, followed by a high risk Wednesday;
  boating conditions deteriorate rapidly on Wednesday

- Rain chances shift south with a front from Wednesday onward,
  accompanied by drier and cooler air through Thursday, before
  another warming trend into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today-Tonight...The active, stormy pattern continues today with the
risk for a few strong to severe storms. Early this morning, some
drier air is entering the mix from Orlando northward. PW here are in
the 1.55-1.7" range, with higher values up to 2" bordering to the
south. Large scale H5 troughing extends from the Canadian Maritimes
along the eastern U.S. coast and across northeast Florida. A very
slow-moving cold front is draped across the Mid South, extending
east to portions of north MS/AL/GA. This is one of a number of
features coming into play over the next 24-36 hours and will provide
one focus for convection along the Gulf Coast this afternoon/evening.

Light offshore flow (NW winds 5-10 mph) is forecast today, followed
by the developing east coast sea breeze after 12-1 PM. The sea
breeze will likely be held closer to the coast/I-95 by WNW winds,
which forecast soundings indicate will remain coupled until storms,
outflow, or the sea breeze arrives at any given location. Aloft,
weak shortwave energy is forecast to eject eastward from the Gulf
and phase with PVA along the base of a longwave H5 trough.

PW values recover into the upper 1" to low 2" range fairly quick
this afternoon, though a bit of dry air will linger between 500-
700mb from ISM/MLB north. CAMs indicate a moderately unstable
environment with SBCAPE at or above 1750-2000 J/kg, in conjunction
with steep low-level lapse rates as temperatures warm into the upper
80s/low 90s (heat index around 100F). Put it all together, even with
marginal mid level lapse rates and relatively warm H5 temps (-7C),
and this environment appears supportive of scattered to numerous
lightning storms. A few storms could become strong to severe with
the main hazards being damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and coin-sized
hail. LCLs will lower through the afternoon as boundary layer
moisture builds and lapse rates steepen. Storm-scale boundary
collisions, combined with lower cloud bases, means that a funnel
cloud or brief tornado also cannot be ruled out. These storms will
be proficient rainmakers, too, capable of producing 1-2" per hour.
Locations that see repeated rounds of rain/storms could experience
minor, localized flooding. Storm motion from the NW at 20-30+ mph
should help to keep this threat on the lower end.

As daytime storms gradually taper off from north to south, increased
convergence along the approaching cold front may spark additional
showers/isolated storms along the coast during pre-dawn hours
Wednesday. So, don`t be surprised to hear more raindrops or a rumble
of thunder overnight into Wednesday, especially closer to the coast.
Temps are forecast to settle into the upper 60s to low 70s for most.

Wednesday-Thursday...As the cold front pushes south across the FL
Peninsula, northeast winds are forecast to increase. With the
highest winds and gusts along the coast, most of ECFL will
experience 15+ mph winds with gusts 20-30 mph at times. Plenty of
low and upper level clouds will remain overhead, even as the mid
levels dry out from north to south. The chance for showers and a
couple of storms continues along the front as it moves south, though
the highest confidence in measurable rain exists from Sebastian/Lake
Kissimmee southward. Daytime temperatures will be quite a change
from what we have been experiencing, only reaching the low 80s (mid
80s far south). This ends up about 7-10 degrees below normal for
most climate sites. Onshore flow will keep lows in the L/M70s at the
coast with interior sites falling into the M/U60s.

An upper level low off the Carolina Coast is forced northeastward on
Thursday as sfc-500mb ridging builds across the southeast U.S. The
front that pushed south of our area on Wednesday looks to stall
across south FL and maintain some rain chance in that direction.
There are some discrepancies pertaining to the front`s position
north/south and how far south drier air actually gets on Thursday.
For now, we are maintaining a 35-50% rain chance from the Treasure
Coast southward, but there is still some time to see how that plays
out (drier or wetter). What`s more certain is that daytime temps
will again stay in the 80s areawide, feeling more pleasant across
the north where drier air has arrived. Thursday looks breezy with
onshore winds gusting 20-25 mph at times, so not quite as windy
when compared to Wednesday.

Friday-Tuesday...While rain chances are not entirely absent, a lot
of dry time is anticipated by the end of the week into the weekend.
High pressure remains centered over the southeast U.S. through at
least Sunday. A front and upper low over the Ohio Valley attempt to
break down this mid/upper ridge early next week. Coastal/marine
showers, moving inland from time to time each day, are likely to
remain isolated at best through Saturday. Coverage may increase a
bit as PW values climb on Sunday and more notably on Monday. If the
surface ridge axis slips south of the area by Tuesday and beyond, as
current guidance suggests, rain chances could increase by that time.
Temperatures will trend up each day, returning to the 90s across the
interior as early as Sunday. Heat index values climb back into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today-Tonight...Light offshore winds this morning will veer onshore
in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. High moisture
and instability will lead to scattered/numerous showers and
lightning storms after 12-1 PM. Some storms could become strong to
severe with winds greater than 40-50 kt, large hail, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential rain. Additionally, a waterspout
cannot be ruled out. While overall coverage may decrease late
tonight, redevelopment of showers and isolated storms is possible as
a cold front approaches from the north before daybreak Wednesday.
Outside of storms, seas remain 2-4 ft thru midnight (locally higher
around storms).

Wednesday-Saturday...As a cold front drops south across the waters
early Wednesday, boating conditions are forecast to rapidly
deteriorate. Through the day, winds freshen out of the NE (18-22+
kt), especially north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas respond, building to
4-7 ft nearshore / 6-10 ft offshore Wednesday afternoon. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued for the local Atlantic, beginning in
the Volusia marine legs 4 AM Wednesday. The advisory expands south
to the Brevard waters by 8 AM, then the remaining legs early
Wednesday afternoon. Seas slowly improve into Thursday, remaining
poor to hazardous (especially in the Gulf Stream). Poor boating
conditions remain in portions of the Gulf Stream Friday, becoming
increasingly favorable by next weekend. Onshore flow stays breezy
Thursday 12-18 kt, slackening Friday (10-15 kt) and Saturday (8-14
kt).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light and variable winds this morning with periods of MVFR CIGs
possible. VCSH/VCTS starting between 15-18Z as the sea breeze
collision occurs across the eastern portions of the Florida
peninsula. Held off on TEMPOs for now, but will likely need them
in future packages, especially at coastal terminals. NW winds
areawide, becoming more onshore at the coastal terminals this
afternoon. VCSH lingering through the overnight hours as a cold
front drifts southward across the peninsula. Winds become NE
behind the front, picking up in speed Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  71  80  71 /  70  70  40  10
MCO  91  72  81  70 /  60  60  30  10
MLB  88  73  81  74 /  60  70  50  20
VRB  88  72  82  72 /  60  60  60  40
LEE  92  72  82  69 /  60  60  30  10
SFB  93  71  82  69 /  70  70  40  10
ORL  91  72  82  70 /  60  60  30  10
FPR  88  72  82  72 /  60  60  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen