860
FXUS62 KMLB 061956
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
256 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- A cold front will stall across central Florida tonight and
  Sunday then press south of the area Monday. Coverage of showers
  and isolated storms will increase with periods of moderate to
  heavy rain.

- Hazardous boating conditions will develop behind the front
  Monday into Tuesday especially in the Gulf Stream.

- Turning noticeably cooler next week but no frost/freeze concerns
  at this time. A stronger cold front may swing through next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Thru tonight...A cold front is sagging southward across Lake and
Volusia counties this afternoon bringing scattered showers and a
northerly wind shift. This front will stall across central FL
overnight. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to track
eastward extending down into Osceola and Brevard counties this
evening. Then this shallow convection should diminish by
midnight. Have drawn patchy fog across all the area late tonight
and early Sun with the better chance again being across southern
sections.

Sun-Mon...Weak low pressure develops over the northern Gulf Sun
and rides east along the frontal boundary across FL peninsula Sun
night. This low organizes further east of FL and swings the front
cleanly through the area Monday. Coverage of showers and isolated
storms is forecast to increase Sun afternoon across northern
sections, spreading southward to the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee late Sunday into the overnight. Activity then clears
from north to south Monday into Monday afternoon behind the front.
Overall, surface instability looks to remain limited through the
period. Confidence in lightning remains low, although the best
chances look to be across the south late Sunday afternoon where
less cloud cover should allow for better surface heating. Several
rounds of rain, heavy at times are possible, esp across northern
sections near the stalled front. Rainfall averages of 1-2"
possible through Monday from Orlando/Cape northward, with
localized higher totals up to 4" cannot be ruled out.

On Sun, max temps will range from the low to mid 70s across
Volusia county to the mid 80s Okeechobee/Treasure coast.
Noticeably cooler for most on Monday behind the front with most
areas in the low to mid 70s (upper 70s Martin).

Tue-Sat...High pressure builds across the southeast and into
central Florida Tuesday, and conditions remain mostly dry through
at least Thu. The next cold front is forecast to reach the area
Fri-Sat timeframe and sufficient moisture return may produce
isolated to scattered showers on one of those days, depending on
frontal timing. Highs hold near seasonal into mid week, mostly in
the low to mid 70s. Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s
Friday ahead of that next front, then a more significant cool down
is possible next weekend. Lows mostly in the upper 40s and 50s
each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

A weak cold front sagging south across the northern waters this
afternoon will become nearly stationary across central FL and the
adjacent Atlantic tonight and Sunday. The front is forecast to
surge south of the waters Monday as north winds increase which
will bring deteriorating boating conditions. Rain and storm
chances increase Sun and Sun night.

North winds behind the front this evening 15-20 knots require a
Caution headline for nearshore Volusia. Winds decrease and veer NE
overnight. Winds become more variable Sunday in proximity to the
front though a more uniform S/SW flow is forecast as the front may
temporarily lift back to the north. Winds increase out of the
NW-N around 20 kts behind the front on Monday then veer NE Tue and
decrease. A light offshore flow is forecast Wed-Thu. Seas 4-5 FT
Volusia waters tonight subsiding to 3 FT Sunday. Seas become
poor to hazardous Monday into Tue esp over the Gulf Stream,
building 6-8 ft with 4-6 FT nearshore. Seas slowly subside Tue
night-Wed falling below 5 FT offshore Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Some MVFR CIGs continue this afternoon, mainly north of SFB, as
the stalled front lingers just to our north. MVFR/IFR CIGs are
forecast to return by late afternoon and into tonight, as the
stalled front lingers across the area and may shift down near
LEE/DAB. Guidance is hinting at VIS reductions tonight, mainly
across the interior sites and DAB. Have held off on putting those
reductions in as of now, but will reexamine next TAF package. VCSH
is ongoing this afternoon, mainly from DAB to LEE, but is
forecast to shift southward from MLB northward later this
afternoon and into this evening. Brief period Sunday morning
(around 14/15Z) where conditions dry south of LEE/DAB before rain
rain chances increase once again Sunday afternoon (around 17/18Z).
Lightning storm chances return to the forecast starting around
21Z on Sunday areawide. West winds around 10-12KT today will
become light and northerly overnight before turning Southerly and
increasing to 5-10 KT by Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  75  60  70 /  50  70  80  20
MCO  64  81  65  73 /  40  50  70  40
MLB  65  82  64  75 /  20  40  70  50
VRB  64  83  64  76 /  10  30  60  60
LEE  60  77  61  71 /  50  70  80  20
SFB  62  79  62  72 /  40  60  70  30
ORL  63  79  64  72 /  40  60  70  30
FPR  64  84  64  77 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson