059
FXUS62 KMLB 101830
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
130 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

-Mostly dry conditions continue through Saturday, with rain
 chances returning Sunday and Monday.

-Seasonable to below normal temperatures forecast through early
 next week, with the coldest overnight temperatures occurring
 Thursday night with lows dropping into the 40s across most areas.

-Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through
 Thursday. A High Risk of rip currents also exists at all area
 beaches today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Rest of Today- Tonight...  High pressure across the Deep south
today, extending across the Florida peninsula, will begin to weaken
as a cold front moves into the Deep South. Locally, mostly dry
conditions are forecast this afternoon and into the overnight hours,
with isolated light showers remaining across the Atlantic waters
through tonight. Northwest to west winds at 5-10 mph is dominating
most of the CWA. However, the east coast sea breeze has developed
this afternoon along the coast, where it will remain pinned, turning
the winds easterly. Satellite imagery supports this localized sea
breeze formation, by showing a cu field developing just inland
across the Treasure Coast with clear skies along the immediate
coast. Winds will then become light overnight, turning northwest to
west once again. Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures
today with afternoon highs ranging from low to mid 70s across the
north, and mid to upper 70s across the south. Cool overnight
temperatures, with lows in the  mid to upper 40s to low 50s.

Thursday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the Great
Lakes area on Thursday will gradually shift eastward and deepen,
reaching Maine and New Brunswick on Friday and Saturday. At the
surface, a low pressure system near Maine on Thursday will lift
north and eastward into late week. This will drag an attached dry
cold front that is across the eastern US across east central Florida
on Thursday. Surface high pressure will then build across the
Florida peninsula behind the front on Friday and into early
weekend. Locally, dry conditions will prevail through the period,
with no mentionable rain chances through the period. Drier air will
filter across the area behind the front, with forecast PW values
going from around 0.8" to around 0.5" behind the front and
continuing through Saturday. North to northwest winds around 5-10
mph on Thursday will become light and variable on Friday before
becoming northeast to east on Saturday and increasing to 5-10 mph
once again.

The frontal passage will bring cooler air across the area before a
gradual warming trend takes place, with temps remaining seasonable to
below normal for this time of year through the period. Afternoon
highs will range from mid to upper 60s across the north and upper
60s to low 70s across the south on Thursday, before gradual warming
starts with highs in the low to mid 70s across the area on Friday,
and mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the
low to mid 40s west of I-95, and mid to upper 40s to low 50s across
the coast on Thursday night before warming generally to upper 40s to
low 50s on Friday night, and generally 50s to low 60s on Saturday
night.

Sunday-Tuesday... Another upper level low develops over the Great
Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards
Maine through Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with
the upper level low, will push across east central Florida late
Sunday into early Monday. High pressure will then build across the
Florida peninsula behind the front. Locally, low level moisture will
increase slightly into early next week, with forecast PW values
rising to 0.8-1.1" before drier air begins to filter across the area
Tuesday, dropping PW values to 0.5-0.7". Rain chances return to the
forecast on Sunday ahead of the front as moisture increases across
the area as well as on Monday as the increased moisture lingers.
There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers across the Treasure
Coast on Sunday, expanding upwards toward southern Brevard on
Monday. Conditions become dry on Tuesday, with no mentionable rain
chances across land areas. However, isolated showers will remain
possible across the Gulf Stream waters on Tuesday. Northeast winds 5-
10 mph on Sunday will increase to 8-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
(especially along the coast) on Monday before winds veer easterly
and decrease to 5-10 mph once again on Tuesday. Afternoon highs in
the mid to upper 70s on Sunday will cool to mid to upper 60s to low
70s across the north to low to mid 70s across the south on Monday
before slightly warming on Tuesday to low to mid 70s.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Today-Sunday... Poor to hazardous conditions through Thursday with
favorable boating conditions returning across the local waters late
week into the weekend. Small craft should exercise caution across
the offshore waters today for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream.
Hazardous conditions build across the Gulf Stream tonight with seas
increasing up to 8 ft in the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for all offshore zones beginning 1 AM Thursday.
Northwest to west winds around 10 KT this afternoon will increase to
15-20 KT, except across the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters
where winds increase to 20-25 KT, tonight as a cold front approaches
the local waters. Winds then shift north-northwest Thursday before
diminishing to 10-15 KT Thursday night behind the front, becoming
light and variable Friday as high pressure rebuilds across the
waters. Winds then shift north to northeast on Saturday with speeds
around 10 KT, becoming more northerly and increasing to 10-15 KT on
Sunday. Seas up to 6ft today will increase to 8 ft in the offshore
waters tonight before decreasing back down to 6ft on Thursday night,
then 2-4ft on Friday, and 2-3ft Saturday and Sunday.  Outside of
isolated showers across the waters today and isolated to scattered
showers on Sunday, mostly dry conditions are forecast through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1225 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Lingering stratus near LEE is anticipated to improve through the
remainder of the afternoon, with a TEMPO in through 19Z for FL005
ceilings. Additionally have TEMPOs in through 19Z for some
lingering bouncy MVFR CIGs at ISM, TIX, and FPR. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail at the terminals. A weak sea
breeze is causing ENE winds along the coast this afternoon, with
WNW winds across the interior. Anticipate prevailing NW winds
after 12Z tonight, with wind speeds picking up to around 10 knots.
Dry through the period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  65  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  53  66  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  52  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  50  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  50  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  50  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  52  66  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  71  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen