329
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating
  conditions are forecast across east central Florida through at
  least the middle of this week. Heading to the beach and
  entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents,
  and Gale conditions are forecast over the next several days.

- Scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast over the next
  several days, with the highest rain chances focused along the
  coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Current-Tuesday... Surface high pressure remains in place over the
eastern U.S. early this week, gradually broadening on Tuesday. A
tight pressure gradient is maintained locally across east central
Florida as low pressure develops along a stalled frontal boundary
near the Bahamas and across the western Atlantic. Gusty northeast
winds have continued today, with peak gusts observed around 25-30
mph across the interior and higher gusts observed along the coast.
Models have indicated an additional surge of gusts late this
afternoon or evening over the Atlantic waters and near the coast,
and today`s peak wind gusts may not be observed until late in the
day. Therefore, have opted to extend the current Wind Advisory along
the coast through tonight, ending at 8AM Monday, and cannot rule
out additional extensions further through Monday. With elevated
onshore winds forecast to persist the next several days, numerous
coastal hazards will continue. Life threatening rip currents and
rough surf are present at all local beaches, and a High Surf
Advisory is in effect for large breaking waves 7-12 ft in the surf
zone. Entering the water is not advised! Pounding surf and long
period onshore swells will continue Moderate to Major beach
erosion at times of high tide. Of note, this significant coastal
event coincides with a period of astronomical high tides, and
Minor to Moderate saltwater flooding is also forecast. During this
morning`s high tide cycle, the observation gauge at Trident Pier
crested at 2.84 ft (MHHW Datum), reaching Moderate Flood Stage.
Additional higher crests are expected during the Monday and
Tuesday morning high tide cycles, and saltwater flooding will
impact low-lying roads, lots, docks, and yards near the coast and
intracoastal waterways. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect.

Shifting focus towards the precipitation forecast and trends, a
pocket of higher moisture (PWAT ~ 1.7-1.9") across portions of the
Treasure coast and near Lake Okeechobee fueled several rounds of
onshore moving showers across the south early today. Highest
rainfall totals from showers that occurred early this morning were
generally observed around Fort Pierce (~2-2.5") and Port St.
Lucie (~1.5"). While coverage further north has been more limited
up to this point, an additional plume of moisture should increase
coverage of onshore moving showers north of the Cape this
afternoon and early this evening with some activity sneaking
inland. More periodic rounds of isolated to scattered showers may
continue overnight and on Monday, especially near the coast. A
drier airmass will then work to reduce overall rain chances by
Tuesday. Temperatures aloft (500mb) have warmed several degrees
compared to yesterday, and poor lapse rates above 700mb will
largely limit lightning potential.

Afternoon temperatures remain seasonal, mostly in the low 80s.
Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the far interior
will remain warmer in the low 70s near and east of the Orlando
Metro and Lake Okeechobee

Wednesday-Saturday... High pressure across the eastern U.S. becomes
reinforced by a second area of high pressure moving near the Great
Lakes mid week. Breezy and gusty onshore flow looks to persist each
day through the back half of the week, and poor to hazardous coastal
conditions should generally continue alongside a period of high
astronomical tides. Models show differences in moisture through
the extended period, but generally expect rounds of scattered
onshore moving showers to return with the highest coverage along
the coast and across inland areas south of the Cape. Near to
slightly above seasonal temperatures are forecast with highs in
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Modified Previous... Dangerous boating conditions persist across the
local Atlantic waters as the area remains wedged between
strengthening high pressure to the north and a stalled boundary to
the south. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots and gusts up to 35
knots are anticipated to continue through early this week, with Gale
Warnings in effect. Gale Warnings will continue across all legs of
the local waters through at least Monday before shifting focus
across the Gulf Stream waters into Tuesday. Additional extensions in
time may be needed. With these windy and gusty conditions across the
waters, seas are forecast to continue building locally, ranging
between 9 to 15 feet through early this week. Conditions across the
local waters will be slow to improve, with hazardous to dangerous
conditions anticipated to persist through much of the week.

Rain chances are forecast to remain medium to high (40-70%) through
the forecast period across the local waters due to the persistent
northeast winds and some moist air present. Chances for an isolated
storm remains low (20% or less).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Breezy to windy conditions continue across the area, with N/NE
winds around 15-20 knots and gusts up to 25-30 knots (higher at
times, especially along the coast). Winds will decrease over the
interior past sunset, but still remain breezy at times, especially
into the evening. Along the coast, a fresh onshore breeze will
largely persist, with winds again increasing to 15-20 knots and
gusts 25-30 knots across the interior by late tomorrow morning
and into the afternoon. Brief MVFR cigs will be possible at times,
especially with passing isolated to scattered onshore moving
showers that will also produce tempo IFR/MVFR visibilities, and
brief gusts up to 35-40 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  79  70  80 /  70  60  40  10
MCO  70  82  69  82 /  40  30  20   0
MLB  71  81  72  82 /  50  30  20  20
VRB  71  83  72  83 /  60  30  20  30
LEE  67  81  66  82 /  40  30  10   0
SFB  68  81  68  82 /  60  50  20   0
ORL  70  82  69  82 /  50  40  20   0
FPR  71  82  71  83 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-
     447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich