361
FXUS62 KMLB 030230
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- Through tonight, a high risk of rip currents remains north of
  Cape Canaveral with a moderate risk southward

- Elevated rain chances continue, focused south of Orlando through
  late week, with higher coverage returning late weekend into
  early next week

- Temperatures warm each day into the weekend, heat indices
  approach 100 to 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Gusty and occasionally breezy conditions are persisting along the
Volusia coast as well as the Atlantic waters off Volusia and
Brevard later than previously forecast. Updated winds based on
trends and latest guidance. Rest of the forecast remains on track
with no changes needed.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Now-Tonight...Among a mix of sun and clouds, scattered showers are
growing in coverage this afternoon, especially east of Orlando. A
surface low is situated due east of the area over the Atlantic,
associated with a stalled front that is draped across south Florida.
Winds are wrapping around the low pressure system from the north,
reaching 10-15 mph. Some gusts around 20-25 mph are possible through
the afternoon, especially along the Volusia/north Brevard coast, as
daytime mixing and fluctuations in the pressure gradient occur.
Short-range model guidance favors a continuation of scattered
showers through late afternoon. As improved convergence develops
over south-central Florida, a broken line of showers and isolated
storms may develop from Tampa Bay to near Lake Okeechobee and the
far southern portion of the Treasure Coast. This is where the
highest rain chances (60%) are found through the rest of today.
Total rain amounts range from a few hundredths of an inch to as much
as one inch across the far south.

Otherwise, temperatures are on track to reach the mid/upper 80s in
most places with a few locations around Lake Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast forecast to reach 90 degrees. As winds slacken
overnight, temperatures will settle into the mid 70s.

Wednesday-Thursday (modified previous)...Weak high pressure will
build along the Eastern Seaboard thru midweek as persistent onshore
flow continues and the pgrad gradually relaxes. Higher rain chances
will be situated primarily south of Orlando, where moisture is
deepest (PW 2"+). This forecast lowers precip chances just a hair,
closer to 30-55pct near/north of Orlando and 60-70pct southward.
These values may still be a bit overcooked, depending on how much
dry air infiltrates northern sections of the area. Instability will
remain limited with warmer mid-level (H500) temperatures (-5C to -
6C). There will be occasional weak subtle shortwave impulses
embedded within the WRLY flow that will aid convection. A meager
warming trend is forecast with highs in the U80s to L90s
(approaching the M90s far interior). Overnight lows will continue to
reach the 70s.

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...Increasing mid-level heights in
the extended as weak ridging takes hold and large scale troughing
retreats northward. Still, some drier air lingers across north-
central Florida, but a gradual return of deeper moisture does occur
late in the weekend into early next week. The former stalled frontal
boundary across south FL ventures back northward. The moisture
gradient does remain fairly tight north to south, and we continue to
advertise scattered convective chances northward with numerous
showers and storms mentioned, generally south of Orlando. Highs
reach the U80s to around 90 degrees, though drier air across the
north may help realize temps in the low/mid 90s near/NW of I-4. Peak
heat indices may reach 100 to 105 degrees across the area this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Buoy obs over the last couple hours show a small wind surge has
pushed 15-20 kt winds into the Brevard Atlantic waters, in
addition to the Volusia waters early tonight. Seas up to 6 ft have
been observed at buoy 41070 13 nm NE of Ponce Inlet as well.
Updated the forecast based on latest guidance and trends, which
calls for these winds to diminish over the next few hours, but
small craft should exercise caution the first half of the night in
the meantime.

As the pressure gradient weakens a bit Wednesday, winds return to
10-15 kt with gusts generally under 20 kt from the Cape
northward. Surface flow turns onshore Thursday, weakening further
(10-12 kt or less), remaining ENE through Saturday. Waves up to 6
ft well offshore of the Volusia coast are forecast to decline into
Wednesday morning. 3-4 ft waves with 5 ft waves offshore
Wednesday fall further to 2-4 ft Thursday and 2-3 ft Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Convection
is winding down across ECFL this evening. However, isolated to
scattered coastal showers will continue to be possible through
tonight. Have kept VCSH along the coast through 06Z as confidence
in showers decreases afterwards. NE winds this evening will
become N/NW overnight and decrease to 5 KT or less before becoming
N/NE in the morning and increasing to 5-10 KT. Confidence
increases for onshore moving showers starting in the morning, thus
have included VCSH starting at 13Z along the coast and 16Z across
the interior. Convection will increase into the afternoon, with
VCTS starting 16/18Z. Hi-res guidance is in fairly good agreement
that convection will diminish around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  75  88 /  20  40  10  40
MCO  74  90  74  91 /  10  40  10  60
MLB  76  89  77  89 /  20  50  30  60
VRB  74  89  76  90 /  20  60  30  70
LEE  73  89  73  90 /  10  30  10  40
SFB  74  89  74  90 /  10  40  10  50
ORL  74  89  74  91 /  10  40  10  60
FPR  74  89  74  90 /  20  60  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Watson