398
FXUS62 KMLB 012027
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
327 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous rain bands forecast this afternoon and
  overnight as a disturbance moves overhead. Through Monday,
  widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches, with some spots reaching 5-8
  inches. There is a very low chance for rainfall amounts in
  excess of 10 inches, such as those seen the city of Okeechobee
  this afternoon. Where soils are already saturated, a Flood Watch
  is in effect for Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, and
  Okeechobee Counties through Monday afternoon.

- Beach conditions remain dangerous today and Monday along Central
  Florida`s Atlantic coast. A High Surf Advisory remains in
  effect for 5-7 ft breakers, and there is a high risk of life-
  threatening rip currents. Please remain out of the ocean! Minor
  to moderate coastal flooding may occur at high tide mainly near
  and south of St Lucie Inlet.

- The combination of rough seas and fresh easterly winds continues
  to cause hazardous conditions for boaters, especially in the
  open Atlantic. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at
  least Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today-Monday... A disturbance aloft in the Gulf will move over the
Florida peninsula today, eventually stalling over the area late
Monday and into Tuesday. Locally, this will increase moisture and
promote a wet and unsettled period. As this disturbance moves over
the Florida peninsula today, Central Florida will become positioned
beneath a region of upper-level divergence, promoting synoptic-scale
lift this afternoon and into this evening. This may also allow a
diffuse surface trough to develop along the east coast of Florida
this afternoon. As the axis of deepest moisture centers itself over
the peninsula, moisture convergence will become enhanced,
particularly along the Atlantic coast and towards Lake Okeechobee.
Synoptic-scale lift will become slightly less favorable on Monday as
the disturbance stalls over the area, however moisture will remain
plentiful. Forecast PW values increase to 2.0-2.2" this afternoon and
will generally be 1.8-2.1" on Monday.

Scatted to numerous showers and an occasional storm are forecast
this afternoon and evening, with a high (70-80%) chance of rain from
Orlando southward, and a medium to high (50-70%) chance of rain
northward. Moderate to high rain chances then continue through the
tonight and through Monday. There is a high (70-80%)chance for rain
along the coast, and a medium to high (50-70%) chance for rain
across the interior on Monday. A Flood Watch is in effect for
Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee counties
through at least 3PM on Monday. This is where the greatest threat
for flash flooding currently exists. The Weather Prediction Center
(WPC) has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Slight
(Level 2 of 4) Risk and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive
rainfall today and Monday. The greatest storm hazard today and
Monday will be heavy rainfall and the threat of flooding, with
widespread 1-3 inches through Monday night, with some spots reaching
5-8 inches. There is a very low chance for rainfall amounts in
excess of 10 inches, such as those seen the city of Okeechobee this
afternoon. Over the past 3 to 4 hours, rainfall amounts of 6-7
inches have fallen in Okeechobee city, with one gauge reaching 8
inches in Okeechobee city. Other storm hazards will be occasional
lightning strikes and gusty winds of 40-45 mph.

Easterly winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon and Monday,
with winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times,
especially along the coast. Cloudy conditions and increased rain
chances will keep afternoon temperatures slightly below seasonal
values, ranging from the upper 70s and low 80s today and Monday.

Outside of showers and convection, a number of coastal hazards will
remain present at area beaches. A high risk of life-threatening rip
currents continues alongside large breaking waves and rough surf.
Entering the water is not advised! Minor to moderate coastal
flooding remains a concern generally near and south of St Lucie
Inlet during the afternoon high tides. If excessive rainfall occurs
during high tide, flooding may be worsened due to impeded drainage
into tidal waterways. Thus, a Coastal Flood Advisory will continue
through Monday.

Tuesday-Saturday... Upper level low pressure across the Central US
on Tuesday will move east and northeast into the Midwest by mid next
week. High pressure off the eastern US coastline will move offshore
and northeastward out into the western Atlantic by mid week. An
upper level low pressure is forecast to form near and north of the
Bahamas by late week. At the surface, a cold front will move across
the central US into mid week (causing that high pressure to move
offshore of the eastern US), reaching the Florida panhandle and
northern Florida by early Thursday, and crossing central Florida
Thursday into Friday. Locally, onshore flow is forecast to weaken
through midweek before turning north to northwest by late week. Deep
moisture will generally persist through Tuesday, continuing moderate
rain chances. Drier air will then filter across the local area into
late week, reducing the rain chances to 20% or less late week and
into the weekend. Temperatures generally in the mid 80s will
decrease slightly to low to mid 80s by late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today- Friday... (Previous Discussion) Hazardous boating conditions
will persist in the Atlantic waters off of Central Florida through
early this week. A strong area of high pressure over the Northeast
U.S. has tightened the pressure gradient, causing fresh easterly
flow across the waters. Numerous showers and a few storms are
forecast later today through Monday as a disturbance moves overhead.
Winds slowly begin to slacken by late Tuesday and especially
Wednesday, allowing seas to gradually subside by midweek.

The Small Craft Advisory continues for all of the local Atlantic
through at least Tuesday morning, with the offshore zones remaining
beneath the Advisory through at least Tuesday evening. East winds 15-
25 kts through Monday, 15-20 kts on Tuesday, decreasing to around 10-
15 kts by late Wednesday afternoon. Seas 5-9 ft through Monday, 5-8
ft on Tuesday, and slowly decreasing to 5-7 ft on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Organization of convection near Lake Okeechobee is producing
widespread SHRA with embedded TSRA from KVRB-KSUA inland.
Persistent MVFR-IFR impacts occasionally down to LIFR in +SHRA
expected in this area. There is considerable uncertainty how
convection will evolve the rest of the afternoon, but general
consensus is for this activity to gradually lift north and
overspread most if not all the ECFL terminals. Convective impacts
(MVFR-LIFR conditions are forecast to persist through much of the
night. Outside of TS/SH, breezy onshore winds 10-15 kts gusting to
25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  79  72  81 /  70  70  50  40
MCO  70  79  71  83 /  80  60  40  50
MLB  73  81  73  82 /  80  80  60  60
VRB  73  82  73  84 /  80  80  60  70
LEE  69  80  70  84 /  70  50  30  40
SFB  70  80  70  83 /  80  60  40  50
ORL  70  80  71  83 /  80  60  40  50
FPR  73  81  73  83 /  80  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ058-154-159-164-247-
     254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Haley