479
FNUS72 KMLB 241900
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for C-266 Maple Grove...USFS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 EDT on June 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered lightning storms (PoPs ~ 60%) are forecast to develop
this afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes
inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow
from previous storms. Lightning storm chances diminish after
sunset (PoPs ~ 30-40%) and end by midnight. The main hazards with
lightning storms this afternoon/evening will be ocassional to
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 35mph, and locally
heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short period of time). South winds at
5-8 mph are forecast to become light and generally from the
southwest overnight. Temperatures will be in the low 90s with a
heat index values at 100-105 degrees this afternoon under partly
sunny skies. Dispersion values will be Generally Good.



.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon, then showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1700, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....45.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  39  41
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30  40  60
LAL.............2   2   3
Temp............92  93  91
RH..............56  52  56
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...5.8 5.7 5.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   7
Dispersion idx..41  49  49
LVORI...........1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....46 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 9.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........46     62     67     52     39     32
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     20     10     10     0
LAL.............3      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............90     84     81     79     77     76
RH..............58     72     82     88     94     97
20 ft wind......S 5    S 2    S 2    SW 1   SW 1   S 1
20 ft wind gust.12     10     7      6      6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   1200   600    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 9    S 9    S 9    SW 9   SW 7   SW 7
Dispersion idx..46     5      4      4      3      3
LVORI...........1      3      5      6      6      8

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4400 ft AGL late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 6200 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon decreasing to 3500 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south
                    around 5 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 28.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........36        18        19        32
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         20        40
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............75        80        90        93
RH..............97        94        66        58
20 FT wind......S 1G5     SW 1G5    W 2G7     S 3G9
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1800      4400      5600
Transport wind..SW 6      W 7       W 5       SW 5
Dispersion idx..3         15        26        31
LVORI...........8         5         3         1

$$
Forecaster...Fehling
Requested by...Jessica Vincent
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416609.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jessica.e.vincent@usda.gov