Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
874
FNUS72 KMLB 211126
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Office Flatwoods S...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
726 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on July 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy south winds forecast today, with speeds around 10 to 15 mph
this morning, increasing to around 15 to 18 mph this afternoon, with
wind gusts to 20 to 25 mph. These winds will support very good
dispersion values near the burn site. No minimum RH concerns.
Drier air settles across the area, keeping rain and storm chances
near the burn site lower than normal, around 30 percent. Any activity
that does manage to develop will diminish into the late evening hours.
Dry conditions forecast tomorrow, with shower and storm chances very
low (around 10%), with lower wind speeds of 5 to 10 mph and generally
good smoke dispersion values.
Hot conditions will prevail both today and tomorrow, with highs in the
mid 90s and peak heat index values 102-107F.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning, increasing
to 15 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph.
Dispersion index....9 increasing 67 late in the morning increasing to
78 decreasing to 67 late in the afternoon
increasing to 77.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26 31 33 29 32 37 29 30 31 37 47
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 20 30
Temp............75 78 81 85 87 89 91 92 92 93 91
RH..............97 91 82 75 70 64 60 56 56 54 56
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..10 12 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 12 10
20 FT wind gust.18 18 21 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 16 18 20 18 20 18 16 15 14 13
Dispersion idx..9 25 47 60 67 74 78 71 67 77 77
LVORI...........7 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (20-30 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through late evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening becoming
light, then becoming south around 5 mph
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....51 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53 39 37 37 38 40 36 26 12 7 13 7
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............89 88 83 81 80 79 78 78 77 76 76 76
RH..............59 63 74 79 82 85 88 88 90 90 90 90
20 FT wind dir..S S SE SE S SE S SE SE S S S
20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.17 14 12 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.13 10 9 9 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 8
Dispersion idx..51 20 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4
LVORI...........1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 26 late in the morning, then
increasing to 41 late in the morning increasing
to 52 early in the afternoon increasing to 64
decreasing to 51 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13 13 14 23 13 9 10 13 16 5 12 26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Temp............75 74 77 80 85 87 90 92 93 93 95 93
RH..............97 100 94 85 72 70 62 56 52 51 48 51
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.7 3.3 4.3 4.9 5.2 6.3 6.2 5.5
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.8 7 8 10 12 10 10 9 8 9 9 9
Dispersion idx..3 3 9 26 38 44 52 54 50 64 63 51
LVORI...........8 9 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Weitlich
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2617857.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org