072
FNUS72 KMLB 160806
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Atlantic Ridge D1 D3...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
406 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Rounds of showers and isolated storms are forecast to pass from
the south this morning with continued rain chances into the early
afternoon. Southeast winds increase to 10-15 mph as high pressure
gradually builds westward. While temperatures are expected near
seasonal values (U80-L90), humid conditions will produce peak
afternoon heat index values between 100-105 degrees. Smoke
dispersion will be generally good.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 3500 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 53.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  25  33  33  34  39  32  31  41  32
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  60  70  60  50  50  60  50  50
Temp............77  81  84  85  86  87  88  88  88  86
RH..............95  87  80  80  77  74  72  71  70  75
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   8   10  10  12  12  13  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust.16  17  17  18  20  20  20  20  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.13  15  17  17  15  16  17  15  16  16
Dispersion idx..23  41  51  56  52  51  56  51  51  50
LVORI...........5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....45 decreasing to 7.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........43     26     30     26     14     18
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     30     10     10     10     10
Temp............85     81     79     79     78     79
RH..............76     84     92     92     93     92
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 6   SE 6   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.17     16     16     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   1200   500    500    700    600
Transport wind..S 15   SE 13  SE 12  SE 12  SE 10  SE 10
Dispersion idx..45     8      7      7      6      7
LVORI...........3      4      5      6      6      6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 3000 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 53 late in the morning
increasing to 62 decreasing to 51 in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............6 increasing to 8 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 4 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........30        47        47        49
Weather cov.....S CHC     LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20        60        60        70
Temp............78        83        87        87
RH..............96        86        77        74
20 FT wind......SE 6G16   SE 8G16   SE 12G17  SE 12G18
Mix hgt (ft)....600       2000      2800      2400
Transport wind..SE 13     SE 16     SE 18     SE 17
Dispersion idx..8         39        58        49
LVORI...........6         4         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Law
Requested by...Miranda Cunningham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2518066.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL miranda.cunningham@floridadep.gov