236
FNUS72 KMLB 170800
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Bull Creek 13...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly dry conditions are anticipated near the burn site, with a
20 percent chance for showers and storms in the late afternoon and
early evening. Confidence in activity does remain low, and any
activity that does develop is forecast to diminish into the late
evening hours. Light southerly winds become more southeasterly
around 10 mph as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Minimum RH values range between 45 to 50 percent today,
remaining above critical thresholds. Afternoon smoke dispersion
values are forecast to be very good. Similar conditions are
forecast for Wednesday near the burn site.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting
                    to the southeast 9 to 12 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph shifting to the east late in
                    the afternoon.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 64.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   3   3   2   9   11  25  29  35
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20  20
Temp............77  80  86  89  91  92  92  93  94  92
RH..............88  77  63  56  52  49  47  47  48  52
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   10  12
20 FT wind gust.6   7   8   10  12  13  14  15  15  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.6 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 4.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E
Transp wind spd.10  10  9   8   7   8   9   9   10  12
Dispersion idx..14  33  42  45  45  59  64  63  59  49
LVORI...........4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 12 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....49 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........19     31     35     33     27     37
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     0      0      0      0
Temp............91     85     81     79     77     74
RH..............53     63     73     79     85     90
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 10  SE 8   SE 6   S 5    S 3
20 ft wind gust.17     14     13     12     9      7
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   1600   600    500    400    400
Transport wind..SE 14  SE 14  SE 13  S 13   S 12   S 8
Dispersion idx..49     9      8      6      5      4
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      5      6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 12 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 67.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........24     8      21     28     35     41
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     30     30
Temp............72     76     85     90     92     91
RH..............97     90     66     54     49     53
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 3   SE 6   SE 8   SE 10  E 12
20 ft wind gust.7      7      9      13     15     17
Mix hgt (ft)....400    800    3200   5000   6100   5400
Transport wind..S 7    S 8    SE 7   SE 8   SE 10  E 12
Dispersion idx..3      8      28     44     67     48
LVORI...........7      5      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516061.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com