Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
256
FNUS72 KMLB 150723
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for KPPSP Zones 45 46 47...Department of Environmental Protection
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
323 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning. East-northeast winds today will increase to around
10 mph in the afternoon behind the inland-moving east coast sea
breeze. Moisture increases over the burn site today, leading to a
low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms
this afternoon. No Min RH concerns today. Smoke dispersion values
will be good to very good today.
Moisture increases into the weekend, leading to a 20-40 percent
chance of showers and lightning storms each afternoon. Winds will
become east-southeast on Saturday and remain through the weekend,
with speeds increasing to 10-15 mph each afternoon behind the east
coast sea breeze. No Min RH concerns through the weekend. Smoke
dispersion values will be good to very good both Saturday and
Sunday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the east 5 to 6
mph late in the morning, then increasing to 6
to 13 mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 54.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16 15 18 21 13 16 27 30 33 32 20
Weather cov..... SCH CHC SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 20 30 20 20 10
Temp............67 69 74 81 84 86 87 88 88 88 86
RH..............90 90 84 69 63 59 55 50 50 52 55
20 FT wind dir..N N N NE E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..2 2 3 2 3 5 5 6 8 9 10
20 FT wind gust.5 5 6 6 8 10 12 14 13 15 17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.1 4.0 4.0
Transp wind dir.N N E E SE SE E E E E E
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 9 12 13
Dispersion idx..2 3 7 15 24 32 33 42 52 54 55
LVORI...........6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light, then becoming east
around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....51 decreasing to 7 early in the evening.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13 11 10 6 7 11 9 11 13 10 15 17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............85 83 78 76 74 73 72 72 71 70 70 70
RH..............57 61 74 76 82 84 87 87 90 93 90 90
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 5 5
20 FT wind gust.18 20 17 16 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.15 15 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 9
Dispersion idx..55 47 9 8 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
LVORI...........1 1 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 41 late in the morning, then
increasing to 58 late in the morning increasing
to 71 late in the morning decreasing to 61
decreasing to 55 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20 19 23 19 17 16 24 26 30 34 34 30
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20
Temp............69 70 72 77 83 85 86 87 87 87 87 86
RH..............93 90 90 85 70 63 61 59 57 55 55 59
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..5 6 6 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.10 12 13 15 16 17 20 20 21 21 21 21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.9 2.4 3.4 4.0 4.0 4.9 4.7 5.6 4.8 4.5
Transp wind dir.E E E SE SE E E E SE E SE E
Transp wind spd.9 9 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 15 14 14
Dispersion idx..4 4 13 41 58 71 56 60 57 65 59 55
LVORI...........6 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Christin Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613666.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Christin.A.Peterson@Floridadep.gov