Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
784
FNUS72 KMLB 281049
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Lake Mission Drift...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
649 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on July 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mostly dry at the burn site this morning with scattered shower and storm
chances increasing after 12PM (~20-40%). The east coast sea breeze will
remain pinned to the coast and will not reach or pass the burn site today.
Southwest winds mostly remain 10 mph or less today, although occasional
gusts around 15 mph will be possible in the afternoon. There are no
critical RH concerns. Afternoon smoke dispersion will be Generally Good.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 4200 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 34 late in the morning, increasing
to 52 late in the afternoon decreasing to 38.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 4 late in the morning, then
decreasing to 1 late in the afternoon
increasing to 3 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53 42 43 41 45 55 53 51 47 51 45
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 10 20 30 30 40 40 40
Temp............75 77 81 84 87 88 90 91 91 91 88
RH..............100 100 88 80 72 70 64 62 60 60 66
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9
20 FT wind gust.7 7 8 8 10 12 13 14 16 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.9 2.3
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.6 7 8 7 8 8 10 10 12 13 14
Dispersion idx..4 5 14 20 30 37 48 52 54 55 38
LVORI...........8 8 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....35 decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........48 52 50 41 29 20 20 30 27 30 30 24
Weather cov.....CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............88 86 82 81 80 79 79 78 78 78 77 77
RH..............66 70 79 82 85 88 88 91 91 91 94 94
20 FT wind dir..W W SW W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.16 15 14 12 12 10 12 12 12 12 12 13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W SW SW SW W SW
Transp wind spd.13 13 12 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 12 10
Dispersion idx..35 21 7 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 6 6
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
late in the morning, then slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 4200 ft AGL in the
late morning and early afternoon, then
decreasing to 3100 ft AGL late in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 60 in the late morning and early
afternoon decreasing to 28 late in the afternoon
increasing to 45.
LVORI...............6 increasing to 8 early in the morning, then
decreasing to 5 early in the morning decreasing
to 3 late in the morning decreasing to 2.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23 31 31 30 30 30 37 42 47 42 61 69
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 30 30 40 40 40 30 30 30 30 20
Temp............77 76 79 82 86 88 89 90 91 91 92 89
RH..............97 100 94 85 75 70 68 66 62 62 60 66
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
20 FT wind spd..7 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 13 13 13
20 FT wind gust.13 13 14 16 17 18 20 21 22 22 23 22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.2 1.9 3.1
Transp wind dir.SW W W W W W W W W W SW W
Transp wind spd.9 10 10 14 16 15 15 17 17 14 15 18
Dispersion idx..6 7 14 37 59 59 61 63 64 56 28 45
LVORI...........6 8 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1
$$
Forecaster...Law
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618489.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/28/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org