Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 310536
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Spot Forecast for Savannas SP17...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
136 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on July 31.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A somewhat unusual weather pattern persists over the area today.
Southwest winds continue and will likely prevent a sea breeze from
reaching the incident location. While rain and storm chances are
below 30% through midday, the potential jumps up to around 60-70%
this afternoon, especially between 1 and 5 pm. Gusty, erratic
winds in excess of 35 mph are possible within these storms, along
with frequent lightning strikes.

Ahead of the storms, quick heating is forecast with highs around
90 and peak heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees. Peak dispersion
should become good to very good by midday.

HYSPLIT will be transmitted via a separate email message.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
                    likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3200 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 16 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 37 late in the morning increasing
                    to 51 early in the afternoon decreasing to 36
                    decreasing to 27 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 6 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 3 in the late morning and early
                    afternoon decreasing to 2 late in the afternoon
                    increasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  39  29  30  33  46  56  75  64  57  59
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  20  40  50  60  70  70  70
Temp............75  78  81  85  86  87  88  88  88  88  86
RH..............99  95  89  78  76  72  69  69  67  67  71
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   8   8   9   9   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.12  12  13  14  15  15  15  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.9
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   8   10  12  12  14  13  13  13  13  12
Dispersion idx..5   7   16  32  41  52  49  49  40  32  27
LVORI...........8   6   5   3   3   3   2   1   2   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the evening. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....18 decreasing to 4 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........69     58     60     62     38     44
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     30     20     10     0      0
Temp............85     80     78     77     76     76
RH..............74     86     92     93     95     95
20 ft wind......W 5    SW 3   SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   SW 2
20 ft wind gust.12     10     8      8      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   600    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 12   W 9    SW 8   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7
Dispersion idx..22     5      3      3      3      3
LVORI...........3      5      6      6      7      8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 26 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 38 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 46 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 37.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 7 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 5 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 3 in the late morning and early afternoon
                    decreasing to 1 increasing to 3 late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........46        39        32        55
Weather cov.....                              LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        70
Temp............75        80        87        88
RH..............99        89        72        68
20 FT wind......SW 2G8    SW 3G8    SW 6G9    S 7G13
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1300      3500      3900
Transport wind..SW 6      SW 7      SW 8      SW 10
Dispersion idx..3         12        34        45
LVORI...........8         5         3         1

$$
Forecaster...Heil
Requested by...MIRANDA CUNNINGHAM
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618688.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/31/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL miranda.cunningham@FloridaDEP.gov