Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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FNUS72 KMLB 030707
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for JDSP Picnic area...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
307 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on September 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Lower than normal confidence in convective evolution today. A
weak trough over the nearby Atlantic waters and abundant moisture
is resulting unsettled conditions and sporadic development of
isolated to scattered showers and storms near the coast early this
morning. A better defined east coast sea breeze is forecast to
develop around noon, shifting light S-SE winds this morning ESE-
SE around 10 mph, and support scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms. Storm motion may become slow/erratic as steering
flow weakens. Storms will be capable of occasional to frequent
lightning, wind gusts around 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall
that may lead to flooding. Afternoon dispersion values will be
Poor due to low mixing heights and weak transport winds.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning and early
afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
likely early in the afternoon. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300-2400 ft AGL increasing to 2400-2900 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 26 in the late morning and
afternoon.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56 60 65 67 72 69 71 71
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 40 50 60 60 50 50
Temp............86 86 87 87 86 88 86 85
RH..............80 80 77 75 77 72 77 80
20 FT wind dir..S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.9 9 10 12 13 14 14 17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
Transp wind dir.S S S SE S SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.8 7 8 8 8 9 10 12
Dispersion idx..22 27 26 26 23 26 27 30
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the late evening and overnight. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....24 decreasing to 6 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 early in the evening.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73 73 73 68 67 58 55 54 47 46 45 43
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50 40 30 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30
Temp............84 82 81 80 80 79 80 79 79 79 78 78
RH..............82 85 88 91 91 94 91 91 94 94 94 94
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S
20 FT wind spd..9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.15 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 10 9 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 10 12 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7
Dispersion idx..27 20 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 4 4
LVORI...........3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning and early
afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
likely early in the afternoon. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 24 in the late morning and
afternoon.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48 52 57 59 61 63 67 70 74 73 73 72
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 60 50 40 30
Temp............77 78 79 83 86 86 88 88 87 88 86 85
RH..............97 94 94 85 80 80 75 72 75 72 77 80
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 9
20 FT wind gust.7 6 7 7 8 10 12 13 14 14 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.6 6 5 8 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 10
Dispersion idx..3 2 3 11 21 27 27 25 26 23 22 22
LVORI...........8 7 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Rob Rossmanith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621137.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/03/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robin.rossmanith@floridadep.gov