Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
820
FNUS72 KMLB 141328
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Hilochee WMA prescribed burn...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
928 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
A very moist airmass and passing disturbance will lead to high shower
and thunderstorm chances into the afternoon (rain chances up to 80%).
Greatest potential for showers and storms at the burn site will be
from 3-7PM. Storms that develop will have the potential to produce
strong to locally damaging wind gusts, small hail, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches. Winds will generally be
out of the northwest around 8-10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds will
occur with any nearby thunderstorms. It will also be hot and humid
today, with highs in the mid 90s and peak heat index values around
102-107F this afternoon before any showers and storms. Dispersion
values will be Generally Good today.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the morning, then
showers with thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL decreasing to 1300 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....34 increasing to 58 early in the afternoon
decreasing to 37 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3 decreasing to 2 late in the morning, then
increasing to 3 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39 49 53 59 56 68 80 74
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).30 50 50 60 60 70 70 80
Temp............87 89 92 92 93 93 90 87
RH..............70 66 60 60 58 58 64 70
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW N W
20 FT wind spd..8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8
20 FT wind gust.13 14 15 16 16 16 15 13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.3
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW N NW N W
Transp wind spd.13 14 13 13 13 14 15 10
Dispersion idx..34 48 53 49 58 52 37 16
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 10 mph shifting to the north 6
to 8 mph after 3 am.
Dispersion index....7.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 7 early in the evening, then
increasing to 8 overnight increasing to 9 after
3 am decreasing to 7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75 81 74 64 58 50 38 32 30 35 17 18
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).70 60 40 30 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0
Temp............85 81 79 77 76 76 75 75 75 73 73 73
RH..............72 82 88 94 97 97 97 97 94 100 97 97
20 FT wind dir..NW W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW N
20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.12 9 8 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W NW NW W NW NW NW N N N N
Transp wind spd.7 9 7 10 8 9 10 8 9 8 7 6
Dispersion idx..10 9 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
LVORI...........3 4 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 7
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
late in the morning, then showers with
thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 8 mph late
in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3000 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east around 8
mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 24.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26 28 33 45 46 46 51 57 62 64 66 68
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 80 80 80 80
Temp............73 73 75 78 82 85 87 88 90 89 88 87
RH..............100 100 97 91 81 75 71 67 62 64 66 68
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW N NE E SE SE S S S SE
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 3 6 7 7 7 7 8 8
20 FT wind gust.3 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N NE E E
Transp wind spd.6 6 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8
Dispersion idx..3 2 5 9 13 17 18 21 23 23 25 24
LVORI...........9 10 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Weitlich
Requested by...Loghan Lomneck
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2517964.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Loghan.Lomneck@myfwc.com