Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
376
FNUS72 KMLB 101051
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Jones Island...US Wildland Fire Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
651 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on August 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning. High pressure will dominate the area through the
week. Below normal rain and lightning storm chances are forecast
(20-30 percent chance of rain) through that time. Any storms that
do form will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Hot and
humid conditions are forecast with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s with lows well into the 70s each day. These temperatures
combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of
103-109 degrees. Winds will be light overall as the pressure
gradient is relatively weak. Southwest to west winds will prevail
each day before backing east to southeast each afternoon with the
east coast sea breeze. No Min RH concerns through the week.
Afternoon smoke dispersion values will be fair to generally good
today and Tuesday, and good to very good on Wednesday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 5100 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
around 5 mph late in the afternoon, then
shifting to the southeast around 6 mph late in
the afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 30.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 2.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30 33 35 30 30 32 39 42 42 45 52
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 30 30 30
Temp............74 76 80 85 88 90 92 93 93 93 91
RH..............100 100 94 82 72 66 60 56 56 56 60
20 FT wind dir..N N N S S S SW SW SW SE E
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.1 4.7 3.8
Transp wind dir.SE S S S S S S SW SW SW SE
Transp wind spd.5 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6
Dispersion idx..2 4 13 19 28 29 33 29 31 26 26
LVORI...........10 9 5 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the late
evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 8 mph shifting to the south 6 to
7 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....24 decreasing to 7.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58 59 55 49 48 40 31 23 15 15 16 21
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............90 88 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 77 76 76
RH..............62 68 80 79 82 85 88 91 94 90 97 97
20 FT wind dir..E E E SE S S S S S S S N
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E SE E SE S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6
Dispersion idx..24 11 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph shifting to the west 6
to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 48.
LVORI...............7 increasing to 9 early in the morning, then
decreasing to 5 late in the morning decreasing
to 3 late in the morning decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19 19 22 20 16 19 25 36 44 45 46 49
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20
Temp............76 75 77 81 86 88 91 93 93 94 95 94
RH..............97 100 97 88 77 72 64 58 56 54 53 53
20 FT wind dir..N N N N W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.6 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 5.8 4.1 4.2 5.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7
Dispersion idx..2 2 3 12 21 30 38 39 41 36 35 48
LVORI...........7 9 8 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Brian Pippin
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619330.1/MLB
.DELDT 08/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brian_pippin@fws.gov