676
FNUS72 KMLB 251808
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Micco...SJRWMD
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
208 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on June 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Conditions near the burn site are forecast to remain mostly dry
through the rest of today and into the overnight hours. Easterly
winds persist around 10 mph, becoming southeasterly and lighter
through tonight. Thursday, rain chances increase near the burn
site as moisture increases. Showers and storms are forecast to
develop as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland,
with lightning, gusty winds, and hail being the primary storm
concerns. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the area in
a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather tomorrow, so there is a
low chance for severe storm development near the burn site.
Afternoon smoke dispersion values are forecast to be fair to good
on Thursday, with no minimum RH or wind concerns outside of
convection.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....46.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  19  25  16
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20
Temp............88  87  88  86
RH..............61  61  59  63
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 3.3 3.0 3.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  14  14  14
Dispersion idx..40  43  44  46
LVORI...........1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 14 mph shifting to the south 3
                    to 6 mph after 3 am.
Dispersion index....44 decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........23     8      1      1      6      7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
Temp............86     83     81     78     77     76
RH..............63     70     75     82     83     87
20 ft wind......E 10   E 7    E 6    SE 3   SE 3   SE 2
20 ft wind gust.14     12     9      8      7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....2900   1800   400    400    400    400
Transport wind..E 14   E 12   E 8    SE 9   SE 8   S 6
Dispersion idx..44     6      4      4      4      3
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      5      6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers
                    in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 6 to 12 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3800 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the east 3
                    to 12 mph in the morning and early afternoon,
                    then shifting to the southeast 12 to 14 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 45.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........25     13     11     32     37     34
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     40     60     60
Temp............75     77     85     87     87     88
RH..............91     87     67     63     63     61
20 ft wind......E 2    E 2    E 6    E 9    E 12   E 12
20 ft wind gust.6      6      9      13     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1100   3200   3500   3800   3200
Transport wind..SW 3   SE 3   E 6    E 8    E 12   E 12
Dispersion idx..2      5      22     35     45     39
LVORI...........7      5      3      2      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...Chris OHara
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516663.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/25/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cohara@sjrwmd.com