053
FNUS72 KMLB 210723
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for CCSFS Area 3...USFWS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
323 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Light and variable winds become southeasterly at 5 to 10 mph with
the development of the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. No
minimum RH concerns and smoke dispersion values are anticipated to
remain just below 20. Isolated shower and storm development will
be possible along the sea breeze, with lightning strikes, wind
gusts up to 55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours all possible.
Outflow boundaries from nearby storms may result in sudden wind
shifts at the burn site. Activity is forecast to diminish into the
overnight hours. LVORI values increase to around 6 near the burn
site tonight. While fog development is not anticipated, localized
visibility reductions due to lingering smoke cannot be ruled out.
Similar conditions are anticipated into Saturday near the site,
with slightly higher dispersion values forecast (mid 30s).

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 19 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........33  32  30  33  29  34  43  40  45  47
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20
Temp............80  83  87  89  91  92  92  92  92  89
RH..............91  82  72  66  62  60  60  60  62  68
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   6   7   7   8   9
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   6   6   8   9   10  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   5   5   6   7   8   8   10
Dispersion idx..4   5   7   9   9   10  16  19  19  18
LVORI...........6   4   3   3   3   2   2   3   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....17 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........56     43     32     37     36     31
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     20     10     10     10
Temp............89     84     81     81     80     79
RH..............68     80     85     85     88     91
20 ft wind......SE 9   S 7    S 6    S 6    SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.13     12     12     12     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   600    700    600    600    500
Transport wind..S 12   S 12   S 12   S 12   S 10   S 10
Dispersion idx..17     8      5      5      5      5
LVORI...........3      4      5      5      5      6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 2500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 33.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........24     15     20     15     28     32
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     20
Temp............78     80     87     92     94     93
RH..............94     91     72     60     54     58
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   S 6    S 8    S 10
20 ft wind gust.9      9      9      9      12     15
Mix hgt (ft)....500    700    1700   2500   2100   2300
Transport wind..SW 8   SW 8   SW 9   SW 8   SW 9   SW 12
Dispersion idx..4      6      20     25     25     33
LVORI...........6      5      3      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...Alan taylor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2620136.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alan_taylor@fws.gov