032
FXUS64 KMOB 020501
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1101 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through midweek. Surf heights up to 5 feet are
   expected through Monday, with rough surf expected.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft through midweek.

 - A strong cold front will move through the area on Wednesday,
   with showers and thunderstorms likely across the area. The
   threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows an amplified trough extending
southward through the Rockies and a broad ridge over the central
CONUS. Several weaknesses continue to rotate around the ridge,
sparking isolated showers across the region. At the surface, strong
high pressure off the southeastern coast has kept our winds from the
east and this trend should continue through the overnight hours. As
we head into the overnight hours, clouds will keep things fairly
mild and lows will only fall into the lower 60s areawide.

The new work week will start off dry, as ridging and high pressure
maintain their hold on the weather pattern. Under partly to mostly
cloudy skies, temps will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The
aforementioned trough will make its way eastward, reaching the
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A cold front will develop and trail
southward from its parent low over the Great Lakes. Over the local
area, Tuesday will be another dry day, though rain chances will
begin to increase late Tuesday as isentropic lift increases along
the northward moving warm front. The trough will begin to broaden a
bit Tuesday night, as the surface cold front moves east of the
Mississippi River. Although there are some discrepancies with the
timing, latest model runs are centering on the cold front sweeping
through the area on Wednesday, moving east of the area by Thursday.

Given the overall set up with this system, the chance for severe
thunderstorms remains minimal at this point. There are a few
limiting factors that we`ll be watching to see how things evolve.
The primary limiting factor is the weakening trend of the trough as
it moves eastward. Although it does take on a negative tilt as it
crosses into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, it begins to broaden
out quite a bit. Several shortwaves will rotate around the base of
the trough, but these may be too little too late given that if it
does weaken, much of the dynamics will remain well to our north.
Along those same lines, our lapse rates are fairly weak as we lack
significant height falls which in turn will limit the instability.
So all in all, our forcing and wind shear will be shunted to the
north and our instability limited. Where these parameters peak do
not overlap up in timing to give us a favorable environment for
severe thunderstorms. The daytime arrival of the front and
associated storms is favorable if we`re able to tap into the diurnal
heating, but we will still lack the forcing and shear to lend
organized convection.

As mentioned above, the front will move east of the area by
Thursday, with high pressure settling in its wake. Drier air will
filter into the region bringing a return to near normal
temperatures. Highs will still warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s
on Thursday and Friday, but overnight lows will fall into the upper
40s to lower 50s. A reinforcing cold front will move through over
the weekend, bringing even cooler daytime highs to the area. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the
first half of the forecast period. Cigs will generally remain in
the 1000 to 2000 ft range overnight, though guidance suggests that
cigs will drop to IFR during the early morning hours. Confidence
is on the low side regarding the overall ceiling forecast, so
opted to take a more pessimistic approach. Cigs should improve
later this morning, with VFR conditions expected by the
afternoon./73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue through Monday,
before winds shift to the southeast on Tuesday. A cold front will
move through the region on Wednesday, with winds decreasing and
becoming offshore on Thursday. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  79  66  80 /  10   0   0  20
Pensacola   66  79  68  79 /  20   0   0  10
Destin      66  80  68  80 /  20   0   0  10
Evergreen   59  78  61  79 /  10   0   0  10
Waynesboro  61  79  62  80 /  10   0   0  10
Camden      58  77  62  77 /  10   0   0  10
Crestview   60  81  62  82 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$