395
FXUS64 KMOB 172014
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
314 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Now through Thursday night...

We remain on the convectively active eastern flank of a short-wave
upper trof aligned over the Mid-South to off the central LA coast.
Environmental moisture remains high with PWAT`s 1.8 to 2.0". The
local environment as far as instability is concerned has been worked
over from morning and early afternoon storms. Still enough in place
though when combined with a multitude of rain-cooled surface based
outflow boundaries to aid in focused ascent in the mesoscale favors
the remainder of the afternoon being unsettled. Some of the storms
likely to be strong, containing brief strong wind gusts to around 40
mph, concentrated and frequent lightning, perhaps small hail, and
locally heavy rains. Overall, storms have shown enough movement as
to limit residence time over any one area, but short term heavy
rainfall rates could yield to instances of nuisance type flooding in
lower lying, poorly drained areas. Forecasters cannot discount the
potential of a risk of marginally severe storms over the interior
this afternoon in areas where the environment has not been worked
over. Will have a small chance PoP into the evening to account for
afternoon convection carry over. The cluster of convection allowing
model members in the short range ensembles indicate an abrupt
weakening of activity tonight. We however remain at the base of the
short-wave upper trof so will maintain a non-zero PoP overnight and
a potential resurgence of nocturnal marine showers and storms late
in the night into Wednesday AM which will lift northward to the
coast. We remain on the western flank of a southwest Atlantic upper
ridge Wednesday and the presence of a persistent weakness over the
Lower MS River Valley keeps a window in place for the passage of
subtle mid-level energy maximums to contribute to lift within a
persistently moist deep layer environment. Environment destabilizes.
This supports a higher coverage of summer storms than is typical and
can also be strong at times with the main impacts in these being
brief strong wind gusts, small hail, and localized heavy rains.
Cannot discount some water problems in lower lying, poorly drained
areas. PoPs reflect a diurnal decrease Wednesday night over land
zones and increase over the marine waters.

Surface high anchored over the southwest Atlantic, noses westward
across the Gulf and maintains well above normal low temperatures in
the lower/mid 70s interior to 77 to 81 coast. Highs Wednesday range
88 to 91 and close to normal as we start the latter half of June.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday night.
/10

Thursday through Tuesday...

Shortwave energy moves through a mean upper trough over the
Southeast as it shifts eastward, to over the East coast Friday. An
upper high builds over the Plains the rest of the work week as the
trough shifts. The upper high shifts northeast, to over the eastern
Conus through the weekend before settling over the Northeast in the
coming week. Several impulses move west around the southern
periphery of the upper ridge, over the northern Gulf coast, with one
passing Saturday into Sunday and more Monday and Tuesday. A surface
ridge stretching west over the Gulf becomes less organized into the
weekend, but redevelops further north over the eastern Conus later
in the weekend into the coming week. Drier air works it way south
over the Southeast on the backside of the exiting upper trough,
mainly over the eastern Southeast Friday into the weekend. Guidance
varies on where and how far south the driest air pushes, with the
majority being near the eastern edge and points east of the forecast
area. Higher PoPs inland Thursday shift southward, to south of
Highway 84 with higher moisture levels (precipitable h20 values of
1.7" or higher this area). As with any afternoon thunderstorms this
time of the year, sufficient instability (MLCapes of 2500-3000J/kg)
and DCapes (700-1100J/kg) for pulse strong to marginally severe
storms bringing damaging winds and small hail. Winds remain light
enough (Bulk Wind Shear <<< 20kts) to limit organized storms.

High temperatures a bit above seasonal norms Thursday rise to well
above in the coming week, from upper 80s to around 90 Thursday
rising to the 90 to 95 degrees range Monday and Tuesday. Heat
Indices in the 98 to 103 degree range Thursday rise into the 100-107
degree range by Friday and remain so through the weekend into the
coming week.

A less organized onshore flow will create a Low Risk of Rip
Currents through the Extended.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions with local drops to mid level MVFR
in scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted across the
forecast area at noontime. Am expecting this convection to move
inland with south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots through
the afternoon into the evening before weakening as the day`s
heating is loss. General VFR conditions are expected tonight with
convection developing along and south of the cost moving inland
and affecting areas along and south of I-10, then inland. Again
south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow prevails the end of the
week. Winds and seas will be higher near storms, and the environment
also looks to be supportive of waterspouts in morning activity near
the coast. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  74  90  73  92  73  92 /  20  60  20  70  30  60  20  60
Pensacola   79  88  78  89  78  91  76  90 /  20  60  30  70  30  60  30  60
Destin      79  90  80  89  80  91  79  91 /  20  50  40  70  40  60  40  50
Evergreen   72  90  71  92  72  94  71  94 /  20  70  10  70  20  60  20  50
Waynesboro  72  91  71  92  71  93  72  94 /  30  60  10  60  20  50  10  40
Camden      72  88  72  88  70  90  71  92 /  30  60  10  70  30  40  10  30
Crestview   72  90  72  91  72  93  72  93 /  10  70  20  80  20  80  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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