425
FXUS64 KMOB 242326
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

  - High risk of rip currents continues through this afternoon for
    coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

  - Heat builds through the weekend and into early next week with
    some locations nearing or breaking daily record highs. Heat
    Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be necessary
    for portions of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Performed a brief forecast update to align the forecast with
obs/trends and take a close look at short-range guidance. Few
small adjustments made to PoPs this evening, namely the 00-03Z
time-frame to keep the higher mention of a few shower/storms for
far northern counties, as KMXX radar trends illustrate a few
clusters of showers and storms ongoing, one just north of
Greenville which will continue to clip northern Crenshaw,
continuing southeast. All of these showers will dissipate around
sunset, reveling a quiet/calm night ahead. Will monitor for
patchy fog again, but for now as soils have dried up some
following the past few days rain from Bertha, the risk could be a
bit less in the way of coverage. Will take a closer look with the
late-evening package. Otherwise, temperatures remain on track with
no adjustments needed. Did extend this update into the afternoon
tomorrow and kept the same mention of 15-25% for mainly northern
areas, or along the US 84 corridor where we could see a noticeable
uptick in isolated/scattered showers or storms in the afternoon
but again, will look closer later on. KLG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern U.S.,
and the northern Gulf will persist through midnight. This ridge
will then begin to breakdown late tonight and get nudged westward
over the weekend as an upper trough digs southward along the
Eastern Seaboard while a large upper high pressure area dominates
west of the Mississippi River. This will place our region in a
straight northerly flow pattern above 700mb by Sunday. The upper
trough will then lift northeastward early next week, making way
for a prominent ridge to rebuild back into our region from the
west. Surface high pressure centered across the Deep South and
north-central Gulf will move very slowly toward the southwest
over the weekend as a weak surface trough emerges under the upper
trough along the Eastern Seaboard into the Western Atlantic. As
daily temperatures increase into the lower to middle 90s this
weekend, we will see a resultant sea-breeze migrate inland as far
north as the Highway-84 corridor despite the opposing 850 mb
west-northwestly flow on Saturday and northwesterly flow on
Sunday along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to our
west.

Based on the latest high-resolution models and CAMs, we added
early evening isolated showers and thunderstorms across
southwestern and south-central Alabama, and made a southward
adjustment with the late afternoon convection from what the NBM
was showing to account for the sea-breeze. Any remaining early
evening convection will dissipate by mid-evening, followed by dry
conditions through Saturday morning. We expanded the Saturday
afternoon convection from the NBM westward to include portions of
southwestern Alabama based on the latest high-resolution models
and CAMs but kept the chance of rain at 20-30%. As with most
diurnally-driven summertime activity, any remaining early evening
convection should dissipate by mid-evening. We did not making any
edits to the NBM PoPs for Sunday, and kept them confined to a
portion of south-central Alabama into Okaloosa County FL, closer
to the upper trough. Forecaster confidence is still low if any
storms north of our area Sunday morning will make it southward
into other parts of our forecast area or have enough forcing to
overcome a weak capping inversion centered around 700 mb. We will
continue to monitor if a westward expansion may become necessary.
No severe weather is expected with this weekend activity, but
occasional afternoon strong storms are possible as mixed layer
instability values approach 1500-2000 j/kg. Looking ahead, no
precipitation is expected Monday and Tuesday outside of spotty
afternoon showers developing along a sea-breeze. Rain chances are
expected to increase the latter half of the week as similar upper
trough is set to dig southward along the Eastern Seaboard, and
bring some relief to the heat.

It will be hot over the weekend and then very hot the first half
of the workweek when dangerous heat indices lead to increasing
heat stress. We will continue to increase heat precautionary
messaging in the coming days so the public is aware, and prepares
accordingly. Weekend highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with
apparent temperatures (heat indices) between 100-107 degrees. For
the hottest days, we are forecasting highs in the middle to upper
90s on Monday, and in the upper 90s to lower 100s inland (middle
90s along the coast) Tuesday and Wednesday, with apparent
temperatures between 105-112 degrees all three days. Some
locations along the coast Tuesday and Wednesday could see
temporary heat indices peek around 115 degrees. There will be no
overnight relief from the heat as lows Saturday night will be
around 5 degrees above normal, increasing to 7-9 degrees above
normal by Tuesday night. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area flight terminals through the
forecast package. Only note is some high-level clouds via
satellite, and some isolated showers well north of area
terminals, and should stay well north this evening before
dissipating after sunset. Will monitor another round of isolated
to scattered SHRA/TSRA Saturday afternoon but expect prevailing
VFR outside of this activity. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Nearby high pressure will continue to promote mainly light onshore
through Saturday, but a more established westerly, moderate flow
builds early next-week ranging 10-15kts at times. Waves/seas will
remain light to calm through the forecast period. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  97  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Pensacola   77  94  78  95 /   0  10  10  10
Destin      79  91  80  92 /   0  10  10  10
Evergreen   73  93  74  93 /  10  20  20  10
Waynesboro  75  96  75  96 /   0  20  10  10
Camden      74  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  20
Crestview   75  95  75  96 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$