633
FXUS64 KMOB 172325
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
625 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Showers and storms return to the forecast Saturday night into
   Sunday morning. A few severe storms, capable of producing
   damaging winds or a tornado, is possible

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday night
   through Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local
   conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags.

 - Drier air next week and expanding drought may lead to fire
   weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to move off to our east as a
longwave trough digs into the central US and combines with a
southern stream shortwave trough that is passing across Texas. The
axis of the longwave looks to pass overhead Sunday morning, with
northwesterly flow becoming established in its wake. At the
surface, an associated cold front is expected to move through the
area on Sunday, with high pressure building in behind it. With
sufficient moisture return expected, showers and storms will
likely develop ahead of the cold front. Highest rain chances look
to occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Model guidance over the past 24 hours have been trending to a more
active period for the Saturday night through Sunday morning
timeframe, bringing higher convective coverage to the local area,
and also bringing an increasing threat for strong to severe storms
to the area. Models continue to show a QLCS developing upstream over
the lower Mississippi River Valley that will approach our local area
by late Saturday night. However, unlike yesterday, where most models
had the QLCS weakening prior to entering the local area, the low-end
severe scenario has trended to the more likely scenario today.
Looking at ensemble guidance, each consecutive run has come in with
a more and more amplified longwave trough, which in turn has led to
much better diffluence aloft/forcing across the local area. Hi-res
CAMs that came in this morning also show a similar solution with
regards to forcing, suggesting a deeper trough which leads to height
falls of around 30-40 meters across the area. This better forcing
should help to maintain the QLCS longer as it enters and pushes
through the area from the west. Looking at the dynamics at play,
the deeper/stronger trough is helping to bring in some favorable
shear values into the region (0-6km: 35-40kts and 0-1km:
25-30kts). Forecast hodographs are also improving in the low-
levels, resulting in nearly 150-200 m2/s2 of streamwise vorticity
ingestion in the lowest kilometer. Pairing this with improved
forecast instability values, which now suggest a narrow band of
MLCAPE values potentially reaching 1000-1500 J/kg, the environment
may support supercellular organization especially if discrete
storms are able to develop ahead of the main QLCS. Right now, the
primary hazard appears to be damaging winds within the QLCS, but
we cannot rule out a few tornadoes embedded within the QLCS or
with a discrete supercell out ahead of the line. Instability does
look to drop off the further east you go, so right now there
appears to be a lessening threat for locations generally east of
I-65. The western half of our CWA is currently outlooked with a D2
marginal, however, with how quickly things have been trending up,
would not be surprised to see parts of our area increased to a
slight risk.

Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon as a much drier airmass quickly advects in behind the cold
front. We remain dry through the remainder of the period as a
second, reinforcing cold front pushes through on Tuesday.

Temperatures remain well above normal for today and tomorrow, with
highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s and lows ranging from the
low to mid 60s inland to the upper 60s to low 70s closer to the
coast. Temperatures will then trend downward through the remainder
of the period, with highs typically ranging from the mid 70s to the
low 80s and lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland to the low
to mid 50s closer to the coast. A Moderate Risk of rip currents
continues through Saturday, becoming a High Risk Saturday night into
Sunday. The rip current risk drops back to a Low Risk by Monday
night and through the remainder of the period.

Fire weather note: D1 to D2 drought continues to expand across much
of the local region. After the Sunday and Tuesday fronts pass
through, guidance indicates that much drier air will push in, likely
bringing afternoon humidity values down to below 30 percent for
several days next week. Although winds appear to remain rather weak,
the dry conditions on top of the worsening drought conditions could
lead to fire-related concerns next week. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday, although can`t rule
out some isolated convection Saturday afternoon over extreme
southeast Mississippi. A light southerly flow overnight becomes
southeasterly 10-15 knots on Saturday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through
Saturday, then a northwesterly flow develops on Sunday as a cold
front moves through. Winds decrease on Monday, briefly becoming
light and variable Monday night. A light to moderate northwesterly
to northerly flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  84  69  83 /   0  10  60  50
Pensacola   72  83  72  84 /   0  10  50  70
Destin      70  82  72  84 /   0  10  30  70
Evergreen   62  89  67  84 /   0   0  60  60
Waynesboro  64  87  65  79 /   0  10  80  30
Camden      64  88  65  79 /   0   0  70  50
Crestview   61  85  67  84 /   0  10  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$