688
FXUS64 KMOB 241941
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather across the
   area from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across the marine area mid to late week.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A shortwave currently located from Kansas into western Texas will
pivot east northeast through tonight with the southern portion of
the wave providing a glancing blow to our area. It appears that
this wave will provide just enough lift to result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development across southeast MS in the
predawn hours and moving into AL/NW FL after 7am through early
afternoon. Deep layer wind fields will be supportive of strong to
severe storms by the predawn hours with 0-6km bulk shear
increasing to 40-45 kt. 0-1km SRH is forecast to increase to
150-250 m2/s2 with curved low level hodographs aided by the
retreating warm front. These wind fields will be supportive of
strong to severe storms, but the big question is how much
instability will be present. Through sunrise, the highest
probability of seeing SBCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg will be
across the southern half of the area with probabilities quickly
increasing through the entire area by noon. Given that deep layer
forcing will likely peak by 7am and then gradually decrease (as
the shortwave moves away from the area), it is uncertain on just
how well all the parameters will line up. The main takeaway is
that we will have an atmosphere that is overall supportive of
isolated severe storms through the morning hours, but the extent
of the threat will be likely be limited due to the severe
parameters being slightly out of phase. Any severe storm that can
organize will be capable of producing localized damaging wind
gusts and a tornado. SPC now as much of the northern half of the
area in a Slight Risk of severe weather with a Marginal Risk
elsewhere.

Even though the aforementioned shortwave will be moving away from
the area in the afternoon and evening hours, the larger longwave
trough will push a cold front through the area Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. While deep layer forcing will be weak,
model guidance continues to indicate isolated to scattered storm
development along and just ahead of the front. These storms will
move through our area late Tuesday afternoon through the evening,
likely exiting by midnight-2am at the latest. 0-6km shear will
remain supportive of organized storms. However, the low level flow
will become more veered with time, lessening any tornado risk by
the afternoon/evening. Given ample instability ahead of the front
along with the favorable bulk shear, we cannot rule out isolated
strong to severe storms, with the main limiting factor being the
lack of more significant upper level forcing. The primary hazard
from these storms will be localized damaging wind gusts and
quarter size hail.

Much drier and colder air will move into the region Wednesday
through the end of the week. Northern portions of the area will
likely see a freeze by early Friday morning. A freeze is also
possible closer to the I-10 corridor as the latest NBM guidance is
showing a 30-50% chance of reaching 32 degrees Friday morning.

The weekend forecast is highly uncertain, especially for Sunday.
What is certain is that numerous shortwaves will move southeast
out of the northeast Pacific and northwest Canada into a longwave
trough over the western and central United States. The big
question is how quickly does this energy move eastward or does
much of this energy get held back, helping to amplify a trough
over southwestern states. This all determines how quick return
flow sets up and our next front approaches. Ensembles have yet to
cluster around a particular scenario. For now, the forecast will
reflect rain chances returning by Sunday, but this is very low
confidence. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Currently, VFR conditions over the forecast area are expected to
last into this evening, then being to deteriorate as a system
approaches from the west. Low end MVFR with local IFR conditions
are possible at times overnight as winds settle to 5 knots or
less, but by sunrise, winds will increase to 5 to 10 knots, with
scattered rainshowers and mid range MVFR CIGs starting to move
over the forecast area. Local drops to low end MVFR are possible
in the heavier showers.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A moderate onshore flow will develop later today into tonight
ahead of an approaching storm system from the west. A cold front
will push through the coastal waters Wednesday morning, with a
moderate to strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the
front and persisting through Friday. Winds will become more
easterly by Saturday, but still in the moderate to strong range,
as high pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic states. Seas will
build to 4-6 ft offshore by Thursday/Friday and persist into
Saturday. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$