108
FXUS64 KMOB 030825
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
325 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 311 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

 - Rounds of heavy rainfall may result in areas of significant
   flash flooding and potential river flooding this weekend,
   especially near the coast.

 - HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents for coastal Alabama
   and northwest Florida beaches through at least Monday.

 - Minor coastal flooding is expected during early morning high
   tide cycles this weekend with water levels up to 2 feet above
   normally dry ground.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A very wet weekend is in store for much of the area with an
increasing threat for significant flash flooding across our coastal
counties. Deep tropical moisture lifting northeast through the
central Gulf is converging along an inverted surface trough oriented
southwest to northeast, while a slow-moving cold front approaches
from the northwest. Low-level convergence along the surface trough
and upper-level divergence from the right entrance region of a jet
streak to our north will support widespread rain with embedded
thunderstorms through the weekend.

As tropical moisture pools ahead of the front, PWATs will continue
to surge to around 2.5 inches, which is above the 99th percentile
for early October. Combined with a deep warm cloud layer, this will
favor efficient warm-rain processes and locally intense rainfall
rates. There has been increasing concern that a weak mesolow or two
could pinch off from the surface trough and move through the area
late tonight into Sunday. This would enhance the widespread heavy
rainfall potential and promote training bands, which could lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and potentially river flooding,
especially near the coast. Due to these concerning trends, a Flood
Watch has been issued for all coastal counties from 10 AM today
through midnight Sunday night.

Intermittent heavy rain bands along the coast will push inland
throughout the day as widespread precipitation overspreads the
southern half of the area by evening. While exact timing details
remain uncertain, a 12 to 18-hour window of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms is likely between Saturday evening and Sunday
afternoon with the greatest focus near the coast. Some guidance
suggests areas of heavy rain may linger into Monday morning, and
trends will be monitored for a potential extension of the Flood
Watch.

Current forecast rainfall totals through the weekend range from 3-6
inches across the southern half of the area with localized totals up
to 10 inches near the coast, and 1-3 inches inland (localized 4-5
inches). Isolated totals up to 15 inches cannot be ruled out along
the coast if persistent training sets up.

Modest low-level shear could support an isolated tornado or
waterspout threat Saturday night into Sunday if a surface warm
sector can develop. Otherwise, severe weather is not expected,
though gusty winds are possible with storms, especially over the
marine waters.

For next week, the heavy rain threat may linger into Monday for
southern portions of the area before the cold front clears the area
and a drier, more Fall-like air mass to the region. Rain chances
will decrease through midweek, though increasing northeast to east
winds behind the front could lead to hazardous marine conditions by
mid to late week.

...COASTAL FLOODING...

Enhanced onshore flow and King tides will maintain a threat for
minor coastal flooding through Sunday morning. Water levels could
reach around 2 feet above normally dry ground during early morning
high tides, with the highest levels potentially occurring Sunday
morning.

...BEACH FORECAST...

At the beaches, a High risk of life-threatening rip currents
continues through Monday, followed by a Moderate risk Tuesday before
increasing back to High Wednesday. JGC/98

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Currently there is a lull in convection over our area with only
isolated light rain showers lingering offshore. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will then increase in coverage along the
coast early Saturday morning and spread inland throughout the day,
so kept PROB30 groups for all TAF sites throughout the day
Saturday. Drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within
the strongest storms are expected, along with stronger wind gusts.
Otherwise, winds will remain generally easterly to southeasterly
through Saturday around 10 knots with periodic gusts up to 20
knots, especially closer to the coast. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow continues into
Sunday. Winds relax by Monday morning and then become strong and
turn northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front on Tuesday.
Advisory level conditions are possible Tuesday through Thursday as
we get strong easterly winds. Seas increase to 3-5 feet late week
into early this weekend with another bump to 5-8 feet possible in
the middle of next week with the increasing winds.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
 evening for ALZ261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening
     for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$