997
FXUS64 KMOB 072357
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Strong to severe storms remain possible through early this
   evening with strong to damaging microburst winds being the
   main threat.

 - Moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday and Wednesday for coastal
   Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue across the area
early this evening. Primary hazards with storms will remain strong
to damaging wind gusts in addition to frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall. Storms should relax by mid to late evening with an
isolated shower/storm lingering into the early overnight hours.
MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Storms are finally beginning to develop inland as of 19Z after
convection lingered along the coastline throughout the morning
hours. This afternoon will have another round of scattered storms
dropping in from the north featuring ample instability, minimal/non-
existent shear, and ample dry air aloft. Some strong storms are
possible late this afternoon into the early evening hours with the
predominant threat being gusty downburst winds given the dry air
aloft noted in the soundings. Convection should steadily wane
after sunset, although a few storms may linger into the late
evening hours.

As we head into the overnight hours and tomorrow, the ridge aloft
nudges deeper into the Southeast. This pattern shift will allow our
dry-ish northerly flow aloft to turn easterly through mid-week.
Flow aloft turns onshore on Thursday as the ridge gets flattened
by a trough pivoting into the East Coast. Meanwhile, a parade of
subtle shortwaves pivot across the region throughout the week in
this pattern, which will lead to a somewhat higher coverage in
showers and storms each afternoon in the middle to latter half of
the week. This slightly more active diurnal convective pattern
will keep daytime highs in check with no extreme heat concerns
through the remainder of the week.

Beach Forecast - LOW rip current risk continues through tonight
before increasing to a MODERATE risk tomorrow through Wednesday for
coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The risk falls to LOW
for the remainder of the week. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Outside of storms, VFR flight category will prevail across the
region. Underneath storms, temporary reductions in ceiling and
visibility to IFR or LIFR can be expected through the remainder of
the evening. Overnight into Tuesday, VFR flight category should
prevail. An isolated storm or two is possible west of the I-65
corridor during the afternoon hours Tuesday. Winds will gradually
turn out of the east at 5 to 10 knots tonight, increasing near the
coast to around 10 to 15 knots by mid morning Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Waterspouts are possible in the morning hours over the next
several days. No other significant impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  91  74  88 /  50  20  20  60
Pensacola   77  88  77  88 /  30  10  20  60
Destin      77  88  77  89 /  30  20  30  60
Evergreen   72  93  72  93 /  30  10  10  40
Waynesboro  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  10  30
Camden      73  93  73  93 /  30  10   0  20
Crestview   72  90  72  91 /  20  10  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$