045
FXUS64 KMOB 161152
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The
entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and
what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near
the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However,
it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We
have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into
north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is
likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive
eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the
potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday.

Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely
remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon
where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing
will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms.
PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to
slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the
low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain
would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas
of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the
ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some
higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature
with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much
confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of
flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather
weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect
temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat
indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across
southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk
will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory;
however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely
be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing
one.

Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the
potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good
news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper
ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over
water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did
organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and
west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land)
before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our
area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north
and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most
of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain
chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch
range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like
Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of
efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system
coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread
heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the
system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat
may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern
Mississippi. Overall guidance isn`t enthused and thats probably an
artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will
continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the
weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last
til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow
from the invest begins.

The switch will flip rather quick as we move from wet and soggy to
hot and sweaty. As whatever this system becomes slowly moves onshore
across Louisiana, the upper ridge will quickly build over the area
in its place allowing for the furnace to turn up. With increasing
subsidence, expect rain chances to decrease through the weekend and
into early next week but temperatures and heat indices will go up.
Legit heat advisory material will be possible during this period
with the combination of remnant moisture from the tropical system
and the subsidence from the ridge combine to make the great gulf
coast pressure cooker. Expect high heat risk days for most of the
area Sunday through Tuesday and potentially extending into the
middle part of the week. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this
afternoon across the area, especially over coastal counties.
Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of
the heavier activity. Storms should taper off by the evening,
however, ceilings may lower to MVFR or IFR tonight. Winds will
generally be northeasterly to easterly across much of the area,
although locations along the immediate coast could become
southeasterly. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

An increasing moderate to strong southeasterly flow develops on
Wednesday then becomes southerly through Friday as a low pressure
system may move across the northern Gulf. Southwesterly flow
expected for Saturday as the low passes to our west. Please
continue to follow the National Hurricane Center`s information on
any possible tropical development. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  74  88  76  89  76  91  75 /  80  60  90  50  90  20  80  10
Pensacola   92  77  88  79  90  79  91  79 /  80  60  90  50  80  20  60  10
Destin      91  80  90  81  91  81  92  81 /  90  60  90  50  80  10  50  10
Evergreen   95  73  91  74  92  74  93  74 /  60  30  80  20  80  10  60  10
Waynesboro  98  74  90  74  90  72  93  72 /  30  30  80  10  80  10  60  10
Camden      94  74  90  74  90  74  92  74 /  40  20  70  10  80  10  60  10
Crestview   92  74  90  74  91  74  93  74 /  90  40  90  30  80  10  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday
     morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday
     morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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