794
FXUS64 KMOB 291727
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

 - A Low risk of rip currents today increases to a Moderate risk
   Wednesday evening and High risk by Thursday for all our local
   beaches.

 - Rain chances substantially increase Thursday into the coming
   weekend. Numerous showers and storms are expected during this
   period, with storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that
   could lead to localized flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Our taste of Fall is quickly coming to an end as we see a pattern
change the rest of the week. Today and Wednesday should remain
mostly dry, with perhaps an afternoon shower or storm near the
coast Wednesday as moisture return begins. Afternoon highs today
and tomorrow remain well above normal in the upper 80`s to lower
90`s, with morning temperatures Wednesday starting in the lower
60`s inland and upper 60`s nearer the coast. Ample moisture
return will be ongoing Wednesday night rapidly increasing
dewpoints, which should help to keep lows in the upper 60`s to
lower 70`s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

As we head into late week, we`ll see a quick uptrend in chances
for rain Thursday through the weekend. This is thanks to deep
layer southerly winds bringing in ample tropical moisture off the
gulf along with the remnant trough split and several other subtle
disturbances rounding the periphery of the ridge. Forecast
guidance is fairly robust on overall rain totals Thursday through
the weekend, generally depicting widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts,
locally higher. The environment will be very favorable for intense
rainfall rates with storms. Sampled forecast soundings depict a
deep, warm and moist airmass supportive of efficient warm rain
processes that will be present across the area along with very
high PWATs for this time of year exceeding 2.3 to 2.5 inches. It`s
still early to pinpoint what areas see higher or lower totals,
but given the environment in place I can`t rule out some potential
for flash flooding, particularly in poor drainage and urban areas
that see repeated rounds of storms. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
period thanks to an approaching high pressure which will keep skies
mostly clear. Generally, winds will be out of the NE over the region
before gradually shifting more easterly overnight. Uncertainty with
Sea Breeze boundary advancement today will effect general wind
direction at and around JKA, though wind speeds should not
approach any critical thresholds. /31

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Light and variable flow continues through today. A moderate to
occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting
through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the
weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning late
Wednesday night through Friday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  88  71  87 /   0  20  10  70
Pensacola   71  86  75  85 /  10  20  20  70
Destin      72  86  75  86 /  10  20  30  70
Evergreen   59  91  65  89 /   0   0   0  50
Waynesboro  61  90  66  89 /   0   0   0  50
Camden      60  91  66  89 /   0   0   0  30
Crestview   63  90  68  88 /   0  20  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$