878
FXUS64 KMOB 270529
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

 - A cooler and drier air mass remains present into the beginning
   of the week bringing below normal low temperatures and lower
   humidity.

 - A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before
   increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The deep upper low aiding in funneling in dry air continues on the
East Coast before departing with the mean flow around Tuesday.
High temperatures will slowly increase to at/above normal by
Sunday with upper 80s and low 90s expected and largely areawide
90s Tuesday to the end of the week. Thanks to such a dry air mass,
the afternoon dewpoints are very comfortable in the low 60s for
the southwestern half of the area and into the 50s for the
northeastern half through Tuesday. Monday looks to be the driest
day where almost the whole area may see afternoon dewpoints reach
into the 50s. This keeps humidity quite low and it will feel much
more comfortable than it typically does when temperatures are near
90. Even though high temperatures will be above normal, low
temperatures will generally be slightly below normal with upper
60s along the coast and low 60s inland with even some upper 50s
for our far northern counties Monday and Tuesday.

The area continues to have dry conditions with near zero pops
leading into mid week. PWATs are below normal and stay this way
into Wednesday before more appreciable moisture return gives the
area well above normal PWATs around the 90th percentile in the
1.9-2.1 inch range. There is decreasing subsidence as a trough
moves in from the west and a ridge builds off the coast of the
Southeast switching the area into deep layer southerly flow by mid
to end week. This change increases precipitation chances with
scattered to locally numerous storms to end the week and into next
weekend. With such high PWATs, any showers and thunderstorms will
be efficient rainfall producers.

...BEACH FORECAST...

For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle, the rip current risk is LOW through Tuesday and surf
heights will remain around 1 foot. By Wednesday guidance shows
onshore flow increasing, so the rip current risk quickly rises to
MODERATE with HIGH expected by Thursday and surf heights
increasing to 2-3 feet.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon along with
light winds. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Light and variable flow will continue through tonight.
Northwesterly morning flow and southwesterly afternoon flow
develops for Sunday and Monday. Flow will transition to a more
persistent moderate southeasterly flow by midweek with seas
increasing to 2-4 feet as surface high pressure builds to the
northeast. JGC/98

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  64  90  64 /   0   0  10   0
Pensacola   89  67  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
Destin      87  69  87  70 /   0   0  10   0
Evergreen   88  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  89  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      87  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   89  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$