406
FXUS64 KMOB 232346
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

  - High risk of rip currents will continue for the Alabama and
    western Florida Panhandle beaches through Friday afternoon.

  - Heat builds over the weekend into early next week and Heat
    Advisories or Excessive Heat warnings will likely become
    necessary.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Performed a gridded forecast update for tonight going into
tomorrow to aligning obs/trends with short-range guidance.
Overall, the forecast remains on track with a mainly clear/calm
night ahead and a nice day tomorrow. Only few adjustments were
taking into consideration with a small adjustment to Td`s from
18-00Z to account for a deeper PBL mixing regime provided model
soundings indicating a relatively deep mixed layer which could
temporarily drop dewpoints somewhat revealing max heat indices in
the 102-105 range. Otherwise, high sfc high pressure builds in
tomorrow to help suppress afternoon rain/storm chances albeit
plenty of sfc heating/destabilization. Can`t rule out a rogue
shower or two where outflow boundaries collide helping to overcome
tropospheric suppression by small-scale low-level forcing, but
will be a very low risk. Additionally, adjusted winds to reveal a
more realistic seabreeze regime in the afternoon blending the
NBM/HRRR from 18-00Z. Will dive deeper with the main forecast
package later this evening. KLG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The high surf conditions along the area beaches continue to slowly
subside and we expect breakers in the 3-4 foot range by late this
afternoon. Therefore, the High Surf Warning will be allowed to
expire at 300 pm. The 12z rip current probability guidance is
showing the High Risk of rip currents for the western Florida
Panhandle beaches extending into Friday. Guidance is also showing
a high-end Moderate Risk for the Alabama beaches east of Fort
Morgan. Therefore, we will be update the Coastal Hazard Message
at the top of the hour to extend the rip current threat.

Isolated to scattered late afternoon/early evening showers and
perhaps a storm or two across our southeast Mississippi zones and
north of Highway-84 should dissipate by midnight. Dry conditions
will follow through mid-afternoon Friday, with a reemergence of
isolated late afternoon/early evening showers and storms occurring
north of Highway-84 as an ridge resides in the upper levels. By
Saturday, isolated to scattered showers and storms over south
central Alabama into northwest Florida are expected as the upper
ridge gets nudged westward over the weekend as an upper trough
digs southward just off the eastern seaboard. Dry conditions
should return area-wide through early next week as the upper ridge
to our west rebuilds over the region.

The Heat Miser returns for a weekend visit and will most
definitely extend his stay through midweek as temperatures
increase to well above normal. High temperatures in the middle to
upper 90s with apparent temperatures (heat indices) between
100-107 degrees are expected over the weekend. For the hottest
days (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) we are forecasting highs in the
upper 90s to lower 100s inland (middle 90s along the coast) with
apparent temperatures between 105-112 degrees. The ambient highs
are about 5-10 degrees above normal. There will be no overnight
relief from the heat as lows Saturday night will be around 5
degrees above normal, increasing to 7-9 degrees above normal by
Tuesday night. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast
tonight through tomorrow. Only item of note is a brief
increase/uptick in southerly winds for terminals following a
seabreeze passage tomorrow generally form 18-00Z, but overall not
expecting any significant impacts. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A light southerly flow will become variable tonight through Friday
morning as surface high pressure settles across the area. A light
onshore flow will resume Friday afternoon shifting westerly in the
evening and then northwesterly late Friday night into Saturday. A
more established light to moderate westerly flow will occur over
the weekend as a surface ridge sets up across the Gulf. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   76  93  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      77  91  78  93 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   71  94  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
Waynesboro  74  96  75  97 /   0   0  10  10
Camden      74  92  75  92 /   0  10  20  20
Crestview   71  97  73  97 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$