528
FXUS64 KMOB 272325
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A closed upper low meandering across the northern Gulf has brought
increased showers and storms to the area this afternoon. The
greatest rain chances are mainly west of I-65 where forcing for
ascent and moisture is best; however, a few scattered storms have
developed along the I-10 corridor with the seabreeze working
inland. As we head into the weekend, this upper low will loiter
around the area and slowly get absorbed by a northern stream
trough by Sunday. As a result, expect increased coverage of
showers and storms through the weekend.


We will remain squished between an upper low over Florida and
upper level ridging across to our west. This will keep us in a
rather active pattern for the foreseeable future. This will be
especially true by midweek as a subtle boundary stalls near the
area leading to increased focus for storms. Moisture will steadily
increase with increasingly southwesterly flow as a series of
shortwaves moves through the Great Lakes. With PWATS climbing to
above 2 inches and staying above 2 inches, expect storms to be
frequent each afternoon. Like most summertime storms, we will have
to keep an eye out for some strong wind gusts each afternoon.
However, the bigger concern will likely be heavy rainfall and
increased chances for flash flooding. With much of the area
running a few inches above normal for the month and plenty more
rain to come, grounds will eventually not be able to handle much
more rain. As a result, flash flooding risks could increase next
week. NBM 48 hour QPF means for Monday through Thursday run around
2 to 3 inches along the coast with the 90th percentile around 4-6
inches. While this doesn`t sound like much, these amounts at days
4-6 are rather significant and certainly lean towards some
concerns. The one good thing about the rain is that temperatures
will be more mild and as a result we will not be dealing with any
heat related products. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

General VFR conditions with local drops to mid/low end MVFR in
isolated clusters of thunderstorms were noted across the forecast
area at 23z. This convection has been weakening in the late
afternoon hours and is expected to be gone by 04z. Showers and
thunderstorms forming near morning are expected to bring local
drops in conditions to mid level MVFR. The showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage in the
afternoon, bringing local low end MVFR/IFR conditions. Locally
strong and variable winds are possible with the stronger storms,
especially in the afternoon/early evening.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Light southerly winds will persist through the weekend before
increasing next week out of the southwest. Increased showers and
storms will be possible through the weekend into the middle of
next week. No hazards are expected at this time outside of
increased seas and winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

BB-8

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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