598
FXUS64 KMOB 311135
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

A shortwave trof advancing from the southern/central Plains leads
to the formation of an upper trof over the eastern states today,
and an associated surface low well off to the north brings a cold
front through the forecast area this afternoon into the evening
hours. A series of shortwaves also progress across the region
today, and a region of deep layer lift which developed in
response to this pattern is expected to result in a line of
convection progressing through the forecast area from early this
morning into the early afternoon hours. There continues to be the
potential for interactions between the larger scale pattern and
the series of shortwaves moving across the area to lead to
unfavorable upper level subsidence developing over the area as the
line of convection moves through. The fact that our environment
was worked over by convection today likely plays a role as well.
This weakening trend is indicated in the latest HRRR, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NSSL, HRW-FV3 and NAM 3km guidance to varying degrees. This
potential unfavorable environment could lead to much less
favorable shear than otherwise anticipated as well. Aside from
these important potential limiting factors, MLCAPE values are
indicated to be 1500-2500 J/kg and should the trend in the CAMs be
wrong, then sufficient shear would be present to support a threat
of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. SPC has an Enhanced
Risk of severe storms for the entire area for the passage of the
line of convection. Have gone with categorical pops today, then
other than a small chance for rain early this evening mostly over
the western Florida panhandle, dry conditions follow for tonight.
Dry conditions are also expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
High Risk of rip currents today will be followed by a moderate
risk tonight, then a low risk for Tuesday. A moderate risk of rip
currents is expected for Tuesday night. /29

Wednesday through Sunday...Most of the extended period will be dry
with southwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure ridging into
the area from the east. There will be a gradual return for rain
chances by late week, especially over the western half of our
forecast area, as return flow around the western periphery of the
surface high pressure increases low/mid level moisture levels and
another frontal boundary slowly approaches the southeast states from
the west. Best rain chances won`t be until Sunday, when we should
have a good chance of showers and storms as the aforementioned
front finally moves across our area. Should be warm mid to late
week, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s over most inland
areas Wednesday through Saturday, and expect lower 80s to upper
70s closer to and along the coast. Cooler on Sunday with the
frontal passage and higher PoPs, with highs only in the 70s across
the area on that day. Nighttime low temperatures will be in the
mid 60s to around 60 for the middle part of the week going into
the weekend. A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday
through Friday. DS/12

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Clusters of thunderstorms will move eastward this morning,
impacting the terminals between 15Z and 20Z. Ahead of these
storms, IFR cigs will persist, along with MVFR visibilities.
Reduced visibilities and gusty winds are expected within any storm
that moves over the terminal. Expect this activity to end by 20Z,
with VFR conditions expected through the late evening hours. Low
clouds are expected once again tonight, with IFR conditions
likely from 04Z through the end of the period. 73/29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Light to moderate southwesterly winds become northerly tonight as
a cold front moves through. Areas of dense fog are possible early
this morning. A light southeasterly flow develops on Tuesday. The
onshore flow becomes moderate to occasionally strong for
Wednesday and Thursday. Small craft should exercise caution at
times from early Wednesday morning through Thursday. Winds and
seas will be higher near storms, mainly today. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  60  80  67  82  70  83  69 /  90   0  10   0  10   0  10   0
Pensacola   79  64  77  68  78  70  79  70 /  80  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      75  64  77  68  77  70  78  70 /  80  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   78  55  84  64  86  67  87  65 / 100  10  10   0   0   0  10   0
Waynesboro  81  52  83  66  87  68  87  68 / 100  10  10   0  10  10  20  10
Camden      77  52  81  64  86  67  86  67 / 100  10  10   0  10   0  10   0
Crestview   79  58  83  63  84  66  85  65 /  90  20  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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