015
FXUS64 KMOB 051748
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents continues through Saturday night for
   the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf heights
   remain 4 to 6 feet through tonight. High surf combined with
   high tide could lead to overwash and minor inundation issues
   along the coast this afternoon.

 - Small craft conditions continue through this evening.

 - Rain chances increase this weekend, particularly over the
   western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible,
   which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

After enjoying our backdoor cold front and residual Cold Air
Damming (CAD) we return to the swamp as we head into Saturday and
Sunday. A fetch of tropical moisture will move into the region
from the south beginning today, overspreading the area tonight
through Sunday. This does mean a good chunk of the weekend will
feature scattered to numerous showers and storms, but that will
likely be primarily confined near and west of the I-65 corridor,
with more isolated coverage to the east tonight into Saturday.
While the threat for more widespread flash flooding is not
currently expected, high PWATs upwards of 2.3" will favor very
heavy rainfall with any storms. Latest HREF 6hrly PMM values
approach 3 to 5 inches, with 24 hour PMM approaching 5 to 7 inches
in spots across southeast Mississippi into far southwestern
Alabama Saturday. This could result in some localized flash
flooding, particularly in any urban areas or locations that
currently have high soil moisture content owing to the past few
weeks of heavy rainfall.

We continue to contend with high surf and life threatening rip
currents. High surf of 4 to 6 feet will persist through the rest
of today into tonight, gradually relaxing as we head into the
overnight hours and early Saturday. The High Surf advisory will
remain in effect through late tonight for our Alabama and Florida
Panhandle beaches. While the current forecast remains below any
coastal flood advisory criteria, the combination of high surf and
high tide this afternoon may result in minor inundation or
overwash of some of our more typical trouble spots across Dauphin
Island, Fort Pickens, and northern Mobile Bay. We also continue
to deal with numerous strong rip currents. Local beaches continue
to fly double red flags signifying the presence of strong rip
currents and dangerous surf conditions. Residents and tourists are
strongly encouraged to stay out of the surf! The High Risk for
rip currents will continue through Saturday night, remaining a
high end Moderate risk as we head into Sunday. The risk then
quickly drops down to Low for Monday into Tuesday.

After this weekend, we return to a more typical summer-like
pattern as rain chances dwindle to at best isolated to scattered
any given day and temperatures warm back into the upper 80`s and
lower 90`s, with mid 90`s making an appearance once again for some
spots as early as Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A general southeast flow is expected through the period.
Occasional gusts 20 to 25 knots through the course of the
afternoon. Embedded in the southeast flow, passing -shra
possible. Lowest cigs generally scattered to upper end broken MVFR
bases in the near term. Probabilities of precipitation increase
more so during the pre-dawn hours Sat. A prob group for tsra is
introduced for MOB/BFM by/after 06/10Z and for JKA/PNS by/after
06.12Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Moderate to strong southeasterly winds diminish to a moderate flow
late tonight into Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect through through this evening for most of the marine area. A
light to moderate southeasterly flow follows for Saturday night
through Monday. Light to occasionally moderate flow becomes
easterly to southeasterly on Tuesday. Seas of 4 to 7 feet today
into tonight gradually relax to 3 to 4 feet by Saturday morning.
MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  83  73  85 /  30  80  60  80
Pensacola   75  85  76  86 /  10  50  40  30
Destin      75  86  76  86 /   0  20  10  10
Evergreen   65  88  71  87 /   0  30  10  50
Waynesboro  70  84  73  84 /  10  80  30  90
Camden      66  87  72  84 /   0  30  20  70
Crestview   66  88  71  88 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>634-
     655-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ650-670.

&&

$$