602
FXUS64 KMOB 011831
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1231 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Increased rain chances continue today. Most areas can expect
   0.75" or less of rain, though isolated totals of 3" to 4
   are possible.

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to near
   5 feet today, with rough surf expected.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Now through Monday night, a weakly organized shortwave trough moves
slowly off. This system continues to be disorganized with upper
dynamics well east of the good instability over Mississippi. A pool
of cooler air over eastern portions of the forecast area is limiting
any instability, much less surface based. Guidance is advertising
instability increasing forecast area wide through the afternoon
hours area-wide. Looking at the hodographs, the increase in surface
based instability is expected to be limited and more confined to the
sounding well above the surface. Over open Gulf waters, more
surfaced based instability and strong to severe storms are possible.
Over land, guidance shows stronger northerly winds in the mid levels
moving over the forecast area. The soundings show the
disorganization, with southeasterly flow in the lower levels, but
northeast to northerly in the mid and upper levels. Not conducive to
organized storms. Also, the sounding profile is pretty moist, with
limited mid/upper level dry layers to enhance any downdrafts. Will
still need to monitor. The biggest issue this afternoon into tonight
is, with the overall slow movement of the storms, is the possibility
of localized pools of cooler air setting up, providing localized
focusing of precipitation formation. The risk is small, but
definitely non-zero, especially near the cool pool over eastern
portions of the forecast area. Looking at temperatures, after today,
some rebounding in high temperatures is expected Monday, with upper
70s to low 80s expected. With no appreciable influx of a cooler
airmass, low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected,
especially as an upper ridge moves east of the Mississippi River
late Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday through Wednesday night, a deep upper level shortwave trough
moves from over the Plains over the Mississippi River to the eastern
Conus. There is indications of the trough becoming a bit negatively
tilted as the base moves over the Lower Mississippi River to over
the Southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Enhancement of any
lower/mid level jets due to this is indicated to be well north of
the forecast area, closer to the Tennessee River Valley. Advertised
instability is modest, with SBCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range. Mid
level height drops as the upper trough is also modest over the
northern Gulf coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. All in all, the
best combination of ingredients is advertised being well north of
the forecast area. There has been, and continues to be,
inconsistencies in path and timing of the upper trough, though, as
the upper trough pushes east again the upper ridge that has moved
over the eastern Conus. Will continue to monitor.

A cold front of inconsistent timing and strength is expected to
cross the forecast area late Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected ahead of front
passage, dropping to below seasonal norms behind.

Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is
maintained Tuesday, before decreasing to Moderate Wednesday into
Thursday as east to southeast flow decreases and tidal cycle heads
towards a neap tide.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Scattered to potentially numerous showers, with the highest
coverage east of I-65, are expected this afternoon, then dry
conditions develop early this evening and continue through Monday
morning. Predominately MVFR ceilings this afternoon lower to
IFR/MVFR this evening then return to mostly MVFR Monday morning.
Easterly to northeasterly winds 5-10 knots, a bit higher near the
coast, prevail through the period. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the
coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday
night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually
decrease and turn onshore by mid-week after the systems passage.
Seas will build to 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease
throughout the upcoming week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  79  66  80 /  10   0   0  20
Pensacola   66  79  68  79 /  20   0   0  10
Destin      66  80  68  80 /  20   0   0  10
Evergreen   59  78  61  79 /  10   0   0  10
Waynesboro  61  79  62  80 /  10   0   0  10
Camden      58  77  62  77 /  10   0   0  10
Crestview   60  81  62  82 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$