262
FXUS64 KMOB 081811
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
111 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

 - Heat indices may rise into the 100-105 degree mark by the end
   of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Through Wednesday...a deep upper level shortwave trough over the
Central Plains moves east, eventually absorbing more shortwave
energy over the East coast, deepening in the process. An upper
level high over the Gulf shifts west to over the Southern Plains in
response. A drier airmass moves around the west side of low level
ridge stretching west over the Southeast, moving over the forecast
area and dropping precipitable h20 values from well over 2" to
around 1.6" by Tuesday, mainly over the western half of the forecast
area. With decent moisture still over eastern portions of the
forecast area combining with the East Coast shortwave energy,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
creep into eastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday. A lack of
shortwave energy near the forecast area and a drop in moisture
levels will keep most of the forecast area dry Monday. Wednesday,
the upper trough over the East Coast shifts further east. In
combination with a drier airmass still over the forecast area,
another dry day is expected.

Even with the upper ridge shifting away, the drier airmass will
allow for better daytime heating, and high temperatures in the upper
80s to around 90 creep upward a bit to the upper 80s to low 90s by
Wednesday. Low temperatures see the same small shift with the drop
in moisture levels, with low temperatures dropping a few degrees, to
around 70 over most of the forecast area, mid 70s along the coast
near the warmer Gulf waters.

Wednesday night through the weekend, the upper ridge over the
Southern Plains in combination with a continuous stream of shortwave
energy moving over the northern two thirds of the Conus flattens the
upper ridge along with helping it build east over the Southeast. The
axis of the upper ridge shifts to over the Southeast. With a series
of shortwaves swirling around the periphery of the ridge (east over
the northern half of the Southeast and west over the northern Gulf)
along with moisture levels creeping upwards through the latter half
of the week, PoPs creep upward Friday into the weekend, with a daily
seabreeze off the Gulf the initiator.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow continues through the forecast, but weakens with the
shifting upper pattern. The tidal range decreases through the week,
with a current Moderate overnight dropping to low by Monday. By the
middle of the coming week, the tidal range begins to increase,
bringing a Moderate Risk back to the forecast area.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period. Isolated
showers are expected through early this evening, generally across
inland portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.
Southeasterly winds will become light and variable by 02-03Z.
Patchy fog is possible across inland counties, but confidence
remains low in fog development at the terminals. If fog does
develop at the terminals, it would most likely develop by 10Z.
07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails through Thursday.
Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Friday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   87  75  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      87  75  89  75 /   0   0  10   0
Evergreen   90  71  90  70 /  10  10  20   0
Waynesboro  88  71  91  71 /  10  10  10   0
Camden      87  72  89  71 /  10  10  10   0
Crestview   91  72  92  70 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$