429
FXUS64 KMOB 292323
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

An upper trof over the eastern states steadily expands and amplifies
Monday into Thursday to the point of encompassing the eastern and
central states. A series of shortwaves continue to progress across
the region within the upper trof pattern for much of the period.
Confidence in how the surface pattern will evolve remains limited
through at least Sunday. For now, a surface trof/frontal boundary
positioned across interior Mississippi/Alabama is anticipated to
slowly moves to near the coastal portion of the forecast area
tonight while another weak frontal boundary lingers across the
marine area. The two boundaries potentially merge over the marine
area on Saturday then gradually move further offshore Saturday
night into Sunday. This pattern will support categorical pops on
Saturday over much of the coastal counties tapering to chance pops
further inland. Dry conditions are anticipated over interior
areas on Sunday with chance pops closer to the coast as the front
moves further offshore. The frontal boundary looks to drift back
into the marine area on Monday then into the land portion of the forecast
area on Tuesday, with rain chances meanwhile trending to chance
pops areawide. There are a couple of scenarios for how the pattern
plays out Tuesday night into Wednesday night, with either a low
pressure system moving across the area, and/or a cold front
advancing from the Plains and pushing through the region.
Regardless, this will support chance pops for Wednesday, then dry
conditions follow for Thursday as drier air flows into the region.

Lows tonight through Sunday night range from the mid/upper 60s
inland to the lower 70s near the coast. Lows Monday night through
Wednesday night will be similar though a tad cooler inland and
range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs
on Saturday will be 80-85, then highs will mostly be in the mid
80s for Sunday and Monday, then in the mid to upper 80s for
Tuesday through Thursday. A low risk of rip currents continues
through Tuesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A first round of rain moves off, leaving general VFR conditions
with some local low to mid MVFR conditions over the forecast area
at 23z. CIGs are expected to drop to general low/mid MVFR levels
overnight due to overrunning of a stalled surface boundary near
the northern Gulf coast. Another passing upper system will bring
another round of rain and thunderstorms to the forecast area late
Saturday morning into the afternoon. Local drops in conditions to
IFR levels are possible at time. North to northeasterly winds of 5
to 10 knots are expected through the forecast.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A light to moderate southerly flow develops tonight and becomes
southwesterly on Saturday. Winds turn easterly to northeasterly
Saturday night with a similar flow following through Tuesday. No
impacts are anticipated other than higher winds and seas near
storms. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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