180
FXUS64 KMOB 041854
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches this afternoon, becoming Moderate tonight.

 - A cold front will move into the area today, with a few periods
   of rainshowers and thunderstorms across the area. The threat
   for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

 - A much cooler and drier airmass moves over the area this
   weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Through Thursday, an upper level shortwave trough over the
Southeast quickly swings away into tonight, with a modest cold
front that is starting to move across the forecast area at
17z/11am continuing to advance southeast. With the upper dynamics
moving quickly off, the front is expected to slow and stall over
the forecast area later today. The first item to deal with this
front is precipitation. So far, showers and thunderstorms have
been confined to near the front, with a little to no electrical
activity reported. As the front advances today, it is expected to
move into an area with MLCapes of around 1500J/kg. Guidance is
advertising Bulk wind shear values of 25-40kts. Upper support has
moved off, so am expecting the risk of any strong to marginally
severe storms to be low, with winds the primary threat. Also, more
thunderstorms are expected to mix in. Heading into tonight, where
the front stalls will influence the possibility of fog
development tonight. Where ranges from along I-65 to over the Gulf
coast. Am leaning with the weakening front stalling near I-65,
with the majority of the guidance leading that direction. Deep
layer moisture decreases northwest of I-65, but boundary layer
moisture remains good enough, that when combined with weakening
boundary layer winds, for fog to form. Patchy fog has been added
to areas along and south of I-65 for later tonight. Heading into
Thursday, there is expected to be enough moisture for a slight
chance of main rainshowers well southeast of I-65. Temperatures
remain above seasonal norms, with high temperatures in the low to
mid 80s. Low temperatures tonight see a bit of a drop as the deep
layer moisture moves off and skies clear, and are expected to
range from the upper 50s over northwestern-most portions of the
forecast area to near 70 southeast of I-65.

Thursday night through Saturday night, a weakening upper level
shortwave trough passes over the Southeast Thursday night through
Friday, with the front moving south of the marine portion of the
forecast area later Thursday night through Friday morning. A drier
and cooler airmass moves over the forecast in the process, with
precipitable h20 values dropping to around 0.5" or less by Saturday
night. High temperatures drop into the around 70 to mid 70s range
for Saturday, with low temperatures dropping into, dare I say it,
upper 30s to around 40 north of Highway 84 to upper 40s south of I-
10.

Sunday through Wednesday starts with a closed upper low over the
Southern Plains, with an upper ridge stretching northeast over the
Rockies from California and a mean upper rough along the East Coast.
Handling of this upper low ranges from meandering over the Southern
Plains to Desert Southwest, whilst others are advertising the
upper low getting caught in northwestern mean upper flow and
passing over the Southeast. All are advertising a reinforcing shot
of cooler air moving over the Southeast Sunday into Monday,
bringing temperatures well below seasonal. With the airmass being
dry, am not expecting any precipitation in the coming week.
Guidance is adverting the airmass over the Southeast modifying
into mid week, with temperatures rising to near seasonal norms by
mid week.

Looking at our coastal areas, with the flow over the Gulf becoming
more settled, that when combined with a decreasing tidal cycle, will
bring a Low Risk of Rip Currents to area beaches the rest of the
week through the weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A cold front currently slowly advancing into Stone, Perry and
Wayne counties Mississippi is anticipated to slowly progress to
near a Mobile to Camden line this afternoon and stall. The frontal
boundary remains near this position into Thursday morning with a
line of showers near/along the boundary slowly diminishing into
this evening. Mainly VFR conditions at the beginning of the period will
be followed by ceilings gradually lowering to IFR to potentially
VLIFR/LIFR with fog overnight, then improve to MVFR Thursday
morning. Southerly winds near 10 knots become light and variable
tonight. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Onshore winds continue to weaken, becoming light and
variable Thursday as a weakening front stalls near the northern Gulf
coast. A light to moderate offshore flow develops Friday as the
front moves offshore, becoming a moderate offshore flow over the
weekend in the wake of a cold front. Seas 2 to 4 feet today continue
to decrease to 1 to 2 feet by Thursday.
/16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  83  57  78 /  20   0   0   0
Pensacola   70  81  64  77 /  10  10  10   0
Destin      71  78  66  77 /  10  20  20   0
Evergreen   66  80  55  76 /  40  10  10   0
Waynesboro  56  81  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      60  79  51  75 /  40   0   0   0
Crestview   68  82  59  78 /  10  40  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$