930
FXUS64 KMOB 171558
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1058 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Near term forecast on track as the central Gulf coast remains on
the convectively active eastern flank of a short-wave upper trof
aligned over the Mid-South to off the central LA coast. Environmental
moisture remains high with PWAT`s 1.8 to 2.0". Considering these
players along with sufficient instability (MUCapes ranging
3000-4000 J/KG) and a multitude of rain-cooled surface based outflow
boundaries to aid in focused ascent in the mesoscale favors
numerous to widespread showers and storms the remainder of the
day. Some of the storms likely to be strong, containing brief
strong wind gusts to around 40 mph, concentrated and frequent
lightning, perhaps small hail, and locally heavy rains. Storms
are showing steady northward movement as to limit residence time
over any one area, but short term heavy rainfall rates could
yield to instances of nuisance type flooding in lower lying,
poorly drained areas. Forecasters cannot discount the potential of
a risk of marginally severe storms over the interior this
afternoon and evening. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers and storms develop across the area this morning then taper
off during the late afternoon into early evening hours. IFR/MVFR
conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, along with
gusty winds. Winds become southerly near 10 knots this morning,
then diminish to a mostly light and variable flow this evening.
/29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow prevails through
Saturday. Winds and seas will be higher near storms, and the
environment also looks to be supportive of waterspouts in morning
activity near the coast. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  89  73  92  74  92  75  92 /  20  70  20  70  20  50  20  50
Pensacola   78  89  78  90  77  91  77  90 /  20  70  30  60  30  60  20  50
Destin      80  89  80  90  79  91  80  91 /  20  60  40  60  20  60  20  40
Evergreen   71  91  72  92  72  94  72  94 /  20  70  10  70  20  60  20  50
Waynesboro  71  91  72  93  72  94  72  94 /  20  70  10  60  20  50  10  40
Camden      72  89  72  91  72  91  72  93 /  20  70  10  70  20  50  10  40
Crestview   72  90  73  92  72  94  72  94 /  10  70  20  60  20  60  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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