172
FXUS64 KMOB 200525
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with another Heat Advisory in
  effect for all locations Thursday as afternoon heat indices
  rise into the 108 to 112 range. Additional heat advisories will
  likely be needed through the rest of the week.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of
  producing brief heavy rainfall and locally strong to damaging
  wind gusts.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in
  Florida through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Thursday into Friday will likely feature much of the same as we
have had these past few days. Scattered to locally numerous
afternoon showers and thunderstorms can once again be expected
after reaching oppressive afternoon highs and heat indices across
the area. Heat advisories continue for the whole area with
expected heat indices rising to near 112 Thursday. We`ll likely
see similar values for Friday and additional heat advisories will
likely be needed. Afternoon storms will continue to be breezy with
localized damaging wind gusts associated with wet microbursts
continuing to be possible through Friday.

As we get into the weekend, we finally see a budge in the pattern
as upper troughing moves across the area and a weak front tries to
push in from the northwest. At a minimum, this will help to reduce
afternoon dewpoints Saturday into Sunday and may finally give us a
reprieve from the heat advisory criteria heat indices. Despite
this, it will remain hot as highs stay in the middle to upper 90`s
and heat indices remain in the 100 to 108 range. Saturday and
Sunday will feature at best isolated coverage for storms given the
drier air in place, but any storm that can manage to form may
produce gusty winds.

As we head into next week upper ridging starts to work its way
back into the area and the atmospheric profile begins moistening
up again, allowing for more typical afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized damaging wind gusts.
Afternoon highs will generally stay in the middle 90`s with heat
indices remaining in that 100 to 108 range. The rip current risk
will remain Moderate for Florida Panhandle beaches Thursday into
Thursday night, diminishing to a low risk Friday through the
weekend for all beaches. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Scattered
showers and storms will develop each afternoon with brief periods
of IFR/MVFR conditions in and around showers and storms. /13


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  75  95  74 /  40  10  60  20
Pensacola   93  78  93  77 /  30  10  50  30
Destin      92  79  91  79 /  20  10  50  40
Evergreen   98  72  96  70 /  50  40  60  30
Waynesboro  99  73  98  70 /  40  20  50  20
Camden      97  73  95  72 /  30  30  40  30
Crestview   97  73  95  73 /  40  20  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$