226
FXUS64 KMOB 170527
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1227 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...Tonight through Tuesday Night...

Weak upper troughing generally remains situated just west of the
area while upper ridging slowly builds off the southeast U.S.
coastline. This will keep the area in a deep, moist airmass into
Tuesday with another day of scattered to locally numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will remain warm in the
upper 80`s to near 90 degrees for highs while overnight lows dip
into the lower to middle 70`s tonight and Tuesday night. Expect
the usual Summer time pulse-type stronger afternoon showers and
storms owing to ample instability and weak shear over the area
with gusty winds, small hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning
the primary hazards with storms. If storms can train over the same
areas some localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out. A Low
risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday night. MM/25

Wednesday Through Sunday...

An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to slowly
nudge toward the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll into the
back half of the week. A shortwave trough to our west becomes less
amplified on Wednesday as it pushes up against the ridge and
begins to lift out on Thursday. General ridging aloft builds into
the Deep South and Southeast Friday and Saturday before building
into the eastern half of the CONUS late in the weekend. Rain
chances trend back toward our typical summertime pattern regime as
we roll into the weekend and the heat starts to rise as ridging
builds into the region. In the meantime, expect higher rain
chances to continues each afternoon through Thursday. Pulse
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon give ample instability
and minimal shear, so we can`t rule out a few strong storms with
gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threats.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk increases to a MODERATE on
Wednesday through Friday. The rip current probability guidance is
trending toward a LOW risk over the weekend, but it`s borderline
LOW/MODERATE. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A repeat of the convective cycle of the past few days is
anticipated, with showers and storms developing this morning then
tapering off during the late afternoon into the early evening
hours. IFR/MVFR conditions will accompany the stronger storms
along with gusty winds. Some patchy early morning and late night
fog is possible. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become
southerly near 10 knots today, then become light and variable this
evening. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow persists through the
week into the weekend. Winds and seas may be temporarily higher in
and around any thunderstorms. Waterspouts can`t be ruled out each
morning with any storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  89  75  92  74  92  75  92 /  30  70  20  70  20  50  20  50
Pensacola   79  89  78  90  77  91  77  90 /  30  60  20  60  30  60  20  50
Destin      80  89  80  90  79  91  80  91 /  20  60  30  60  20  60  20  40
Evergreen   72  91  72  92  72  94  72  94 /  10  60  10  70  20  60  20  50
Waynesboro  71  92  72  93  72  94  72  94 /  10  70  10  60  20  50  10  40
Camden      71  89  72  91  72  91  72  93 /  20  70  10  70  20  50  10  40
Crestview   72  91  73  92  72  94  72  94 /  10  70  20  60  20  60  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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