493
FXUS64 KMOB 291127
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 - Moderate to strong northeasterly winds may occasionally create
   hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

 - A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas
   through Friday, becoming a High Risk this weekend.

 - Rain returns to the area this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Through Sunday...an upper low over the Caribbean opens before moving
off beginning Friday. A surface ridge over the Gulf builds a bit
north through the end of the week as an upper level shortwave
trough moves northeast over the Desert Southwest and Southern
Plains. Shortwave energy from this upper trough passes over the
Southeast Saturday into Sunday. A very dry airmass that had passed
over the forecast area today moves off, with moisture levels
slowly rising through late Friday, then faster Friday night into
Saturday as low level flow over the northern Gulf coast and
Southeast shifts to easterly, then more southeasterly. This
allows better Atlantic and Gulf moisture to move inland. Moisture
returns vary through Saturday afternoon (between 1.2" and 1.6" on
average), but with the more organized southeasterly flow returning
Saturday night as the bulk of the shortwave energy passes,
moisture levels rise into the 1.7"-2.0" range by sunrise Sunday.
Guidance is consistent in the best rain chances being between noon
Saturday and noon Sunday. The quick passage of the system and
consistently dry conditions will help to temper any water issues.
If there is, poor drainage areas along and south of I-10 is
shaping up to be the area most affected. Looking at strong to
severe storms, instability is modest at best (MLCapes topping at
around 1000J/kg) and bulk wind shear is nothing to write home
about (topping out between 25 and 30kts). Helicity is also on the
low side (0-1km values less than 50m^2/s^2), so the risk of
organized storms is expected to be low.

Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through Saturday before the
bulk of the rain moves in, with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s expected. For Sunday, rain cooling and decreased daytime
heating will limit high temperatures to 70s (lower 70s northeast).
Low temperatures rise, with the increase in moisture helping to
counterbalance the current good overnight radiational cooling. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 40s north of Highway 84 tonight
rise into the upper 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 60s closer to
the coast over the weekend.

Sunday night through Wednesday...A closed upper low approaches the
Southeast through Wednesday. Path and speed are a bit hard to pin
down, with an upper ridge preceding the closed low`s approach.
The passing upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal
norms. The timing of the upper low is making the return of rain to
the forecast area a bit of challenge. This forecast is based on
guidance saying late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Moderate Risk of
rip currents is maintained through the rest of the week, with an
uptick to High in the coming weekend as winds over the Gulf take a
more southeasterly shift, increasing swell making it to area beaches.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR flight category continues through tonight. Winds remain out
of the northeast around 5 to 10 knots, relaxing below 5 knots
after sunset. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to moderate northeasterly winds prevails through Friday,
occasionally becoming stronger well offshore. A moderate to
occasionally strong and mostly easterly flow follows for Saturday
through Monday.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   81  65  81  68 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      82  66  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   81  55  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  81  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      79  53  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   82  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$