348
FXUS64 KMOB 211749
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the
  108 to 112 range.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue
  to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive
  lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Another day of oppressive heat and humidity is expected today,
followed by another round of strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms. The area remains positioned within a weakness in
the mid-level ridge, with strong ridging centered over the Four
Corners and broad troughing to the north. On the backside of the
trough, somewhat stronger northwest flow will begin to overspread
the region today, while a 700 mb shortwave impulse over the
Tennessee Valley provides additional lift along the leading edge
of some drier mid- level air. Moisture ahead of this feature
remains high with PWATs around 2-2.2 inches across the area.
Extremely unstable thermodynamic profiles featuring SBCAPE over
4000 J/kg, very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and DCAPE
values exceeding 1000 J/kg will once again support explosive
updrafts and intense downbursts capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and perhaps some hail. Briefly intense rainfall and
excessive cloud-to-ground lightning is also likely with the
stronger storms.

The mid-level disturbance combined with 20-30 knots of 0-6 km
shear could allow for somewhat more organized and widespread
convection today compared to previous days. Initial development is
expected over interior southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi
before dropping southeastward toward the coast during the 2PM-8PM
timeframe. Greatest coverage (50-60% PoPs) appears focused along
and north of I-10, with the greatest severe potential likely
lining up where outflows collide with the sea breeze boundary late
in the day. Faster storm motions should help limit the overall
flash flood threat, though brief intense rainfall will remain
likely with any storms. Prior to convection, heat indices are
expected to reach 108- 111 degrees once again, with a Heat
Advisory in effect area-wide.

For the weekend, some drier air aloft will filter into the region
from the north, resulting in lower rain chances (10-20% PoPs at
best) and a bit less humidity. Despite lower coverage, any storms
that develop could still produce strong downburst winds. High
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s, while somewhat
lower humidity should keep heat indices in the 100-107 range. Heat
Advisory levels cannot be ruled out near the coast, particularly
Saturday where moisture will remain higher.

Looking into next week, guidance continues to hint at a somewhat
active northwest flow pattern developing, with persistent
troughing over the Great Lakes and several shortwave impulses
dropping southward along its western periphery into the northern
Gulf Coast states. This pattern could support a few active days of
strong thunderstorms across the region. Regardless of the exact
evolution of individual disturbances, rain chances should
gradually increase through midweek as moisture increases.
Temperatures will remain seasonably hot, with highs generally in
the low to mid 90s and heat indices most likely in the 100-107
range. JGC/98

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions will mostly prevail this afternoon, and after a
line of convection passes through the region late this afternoon
until late evening. We are expecting numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop north of Highway-84 by late afternoon and
move southward to the coast through this evening. Added a PROB30
group to the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS/KJKA sites for the early- to mid-
evening hours for IFR visibilities (could briefly become VLIFR),
MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds to 35 knots. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  74  95  74 /  50  30  10   0
Pensacola   92  78  93  78 /  30  20  20   0
Destin      90  79  91  79 /  20  40  20  10
Evergreen   96  71  97  71 /  60  40  10   0
Waynesboro  98  72  99  73 /  60  30   0   0
Camden      95  72  97  72 /  60  20   0   0
Crestview   95  73  96  72 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$