416
FXUS64 KMOB 080006
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible each afternoon through early next week.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into
  early next week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches
  on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An upper high off the East Coast builds/shifts west over the
northeastern Gulf coast into the coming week, shifting a weak
embedded upper trough over the Southeast west of the region. A
weakly organized surface ridge over the Southeast meanders around
over the region, eventually shifting south to over the Northern
Gulf/northern Gulf Coast by Monday night. Alternating bands of drier
and moister air moving over the forecast area into Saturday night
will help to limit PoPs, with isolated to scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms. By Sunday, moisture levels over the forecast area
rise into the 2.0"-2.2" range, helping to overcome increased upper
subsidence over the forecast area. The result is scattered to
numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms expected Sunday and Monday.
Looking at soundings each day, the upper subsidence will help to
delay convection to late morning into the afternoon over land areas.
With MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg, strong storms are possible.
When combined with DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range, pulse type
severe storms remain a possibility.

Temperature around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected into
the coming week. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s, upper 80s
along the coast. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s
along the coast are expected. Heat Indices in the 100 to 107 degree
range are expected.

Tuesday through Friday...a stream of shortwave energy passing along
the north side of the upper ridge will help to flatten it, allowing
shortwave energy to pass closer to the forecast area. Guidance is
inconsistent with this respect. Current forecast is based upon a
blend of the ensemble guidance, with isolated to scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms expected. PoPs do decrease through the
extended as moisture levels decrease. Temperatures rise back to
above seasonal norms, with daytime heat indices topping out in the
100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to
a Moderate is indicated Saturday, with the onshore flow a bit better
organized combined with an increasing tidal cycle.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals tonight through
daybreak Saturday. Added Prob30`s for KMOB, KPNS and KBFM
generally 18-21z from a passing TSRA or SHRA. If any activity
briefly impacts terminals, expect temporary reductions in VIS and
CIGs leading to lower flight CAT`s, but will be short-lived and
VFR prevailing outside of this activity. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf
coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow
through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to
offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land
breeze sets up with the night cooling.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  92  73  91 /   0  20  20  40
Pensacola   75  93  77  90 /   0  20  10  40
Destin      77  91  78  89 /   0  20  20  20
Evergreen   72  93  73  92 /  10  30  20  50
Waynesboro  73  94  73  94 /  10  20  20  50
Camden      73  91  73  91 /   0  20  10  30
Crestview   72  93  73  92 /   0  20  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$